The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

Sure is noisy out there!

Writer Nate and reader Chamberlain managed to make somewhat nerdy math-ism resonate with me a bus. major and career salesperson. Poker, politics, earthquakes, and terror attacks keep you listening! I will go through this book again! Bmac OH

Not Freakonomics

I love statistics and data analysis and Nate Silver is very smart and knows a lot about data analysis, yet Nate Silver seems to have an “unhealthy obsession” with data analysis. There are quite a number of interesting bits in The Signal and the Noise but it starts with a long and in depth discussion of baseball statistics, which (if you are apathetic to baseball) is only mildly interesting at best. The overall theme of this book was to show the value of Bayesian statistics. I am a big fan of Bayesian stats, but the descriptions here seem weak and the author sometimes seems to delve into data analysis just for sake of data analysis. It felt a bit like being in the room with an obsessive compulsive geek with a calculator. You may learn a lot, but it might not be a lot of fun.

Quiet the noise

The Signal and the Noise talks about why schemes to beat Wall Street or take down Vegas fail miserably. The noise is what Rumsfeld called "Unknown Unknowns" or Will Rogers called "What we know that ain't so". Things we just fail to comprehend or things we think we know but don't understand correctly. Signals are the true underlying causes that if understood can lead to good predictions. It it was easy, everyone would beat the market and Vegas would be a dust town.

approaching statistics.

I now understand part of the reason I kept seeing Bayes' Theorem referenced everywhere when this book was released.

I like how the focus is on confronting priors. not eliminating them, but seeing the effect they have on your view. I confess I will be doing some basic calculations in the coming days.

this does make the second book read by Chamberland that basically slams you with data. much more approachable than Gig Calories, Bad Calories.

Overlooked gem

Would you listen to The Signal and the Noise again? Why?

I really enjoyed this book. It had everything I look for in non-fiction books: a clear story line, well researched content, a plethora of surprising new insights (to me at least). I liked the author's style and had a feeling that a lot of work had been put into every detail of this book. I felt in good hands through the whole book it's right up there with Freakonomics, Outliers and Money ball - entertaining, informative and surprising.

Who was your favorite character and why?

I liked the professional gambler. His house sounded cool and who doesn't like a guy who earns millions from watching sports on tv....

Have you listened to any of Mike Chamberlain’s other performances before? How does this one compare?

no

What’s the most interesting tidbit you’ve picked up from this book?

The part about earth quakes, although they are largely unpredictable they still follow a pattern...
And the bayesian stuff. It was really explained very well although it is hard to understand.

Any additional comments?

I would recommend anyone who enjoy well researched well written science based non-fiction to read this

Too much noise.

Too much noise imho. Enough useful information for an article. Not enough for a book.

Statistics for the common man

I lined this book. The author highlights the issues of predictions and forecasts in plain language. The examples are relevant and interesting.

How a good statistician views the world

Excellent perspective. Interesting examples. My first audiobook, but I found the narrator way too slow.

best book about statistics

Would you consider the audio edition of The Signal and the Noise to be better than the print version?

Nate does what no one else has managed to do. Write a comprehensive book about statistics and probability that is interesting and informative. I loved listening to this book.

Finding the signal in " The Signal and the Noise "

Definitely a must read or listen for anyone that is concerned about what so called experts are saying. We all need to be wary of predictions and statistics especially in the hands of governments and corporations. This is an excellent primer on the topic.