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Thinking in Bets
- Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
- Narrated by: Annie Duke
- Length: 6 hrs and 50 mins
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Publisher's summary
Wall Street Journal bestseller!
Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result.
In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a handing off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted, and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?
Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?
Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values, and even rewards, the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.
By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate, and successful in the long run.
Includes a bonus PDF of charts and graphs.
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
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Critic reviews
"A big favorite among investors these days."–The New York Times
"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world."–Marc Andreessen
"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work."–Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- By: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrated by: Matthew Dudley
- Length: 17 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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Completely misleading title
- By Motorjaw on 01-28-15
By: Barry J. Nalebuff, and others
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In Defense of Troublemakers
- The Power of Dissent in Life and Business
- By: Charlan Nemeth
- Narrated by: Joyce Bean
- Length: 6 hrs and 2 mins
- Unabridged
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We've decided by consensus that consensus is good. In In Defense of Troublemakers, psychologist Charlan Nemeth argues that this principle is completely wrong: left unchallenged, the majority opinion is often biased, unoriginal, or false. It leads planes and markets to crash, causes juries to convict innocent people, and can quite literally make people think blue is green. In the name of comity, we embrace stupidity. We can make better decisions by embracing dissent. Dissent forces us to question the status quo, consider more information, and engage in creative decision-making.
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A Good Review of Group Thinking
- By J. Justice on 03-20-24
By: Charlan Nemeth
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I'm Afraid Debbie From Marketing Has Left for the Day
- How to Use Behavioural Design to Create Change in the Real World
- By: Morten Münster
- Narrated by: David Bateson
- Length: 9 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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With more than 50,000 copies sold in Denmark, this book has been on the bestseller list since its publication in 2017. Barack Obama used a secret competitive advantage to win two elections. Companies such as Google, Amazon and Novo Nordisk use the same insight to stir up innovation, increase compliance, improve the work environment and sell more products. And successful management groups in the C20 index have started using it as their preferred strategy. But what kind of insight are we talking about here? The answer is - behavioural design.
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Great, practical summary of behaviour design
- By Elena on 06-01-21
By: Morten Münster
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The Best Place to Work
- The Art and Science of Creating an Extraordinary Workplace
- By: Ron Friedman PhD
- Narrated by: Walter Dixon
- Length: 8 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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In The Best Place to Work, award-winning psychologist Ron Friedman, Ph.D. uses the latest research from the fields of motivation, creativity, behavioral economics, neuroscience, and management to reveal what really makes us successful at work. Combining powerful stories with cutting edge findings, Friedman shows leaders at every level how they can use scientifically-proven techniques to promote smarter thinking, greater innovation, and stronger performance.
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Useful ideas and information past first chapters
- By superstasia on 07-12-17
By: Ron Friedman PhD
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Originals
- How Non-Conformists Move the World
- By: Adam Grant, Sheryl Sandberg - foreword
- Narrated by: Fred Sanders, Susan Denaker
- Length: 10 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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With Give and Take, Adam Grant not only introduced a landmark new paradigm for success but also established himself as one of his generation’s most compelling and provocative thought leaders. In Originals he again addresses the challenge of improving the world, but now from the perspective of becoming original: choosing to champion novel ideas and values that go against the grain, battle conformity, and buck outdated traditions. How can we originate new ideas, policies, and practices without risking it all?
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Interesting, but not science
- By Lloyd Fassett on 03-14-16
By: Adam Grant, and others
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You Are Now Less Dumb
- How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Outsmart Yourself
- By: David McRaney
- Narrated by: Don Hagen
- Length: 8 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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You Are Now Less Dumb is grounded in the idea that we all believe ourselves to be objective observers of reality - except we’re not. But that's okay, because our delusions keep us sane. Expanding on this premise, McRaney provides eye-opening analyses of 15 more ways we fool ourselves every day. This smart and highly entertaining audiobook will be wowing listeners for years to come.
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Not a lot of guidance
- By A. Yoshida on 02-08-14
By: David McRaney
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Friend and Foe
- When to Cooperate, When to Compete, and How to Succeed at Both
- By: Adam D. Galinsky, Maurice E. Schweitzer
- Narrated by: Tom Perkins
- Length: 9 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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In Friend and Foe, researchers Galinsky and Schweitzer explain why this debate misses the mark. Rather than being hardwired to compete or cooperate, humans have evolved to do both. It is only by learning how to strike the right balance between these two forces that we can improve our long-term relationships and get more of what we want.
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Unexpected
- By Garron Rose on 01-05-16
By: Adam D. Galinsky, and others
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Commit to Win
- How to Harness the Four Elements of Commitment to Reach Your Goals
- By: Heidi Reeder PhD
- Narrated by: Heidi Reeder PhD
- Length: 5 hrs and 55 mins
- Unabridged
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What do you need besides motivation and willpower? In Commit to Win, Heidi Reeder, PhD, unpacks over forty years of research by psychologists and economists to show that the key to reaching any goal, whether it’s to hit the gym more often or to finally quit that dead-end job, isn’t motivation, willpower, or determination. It’s commitment. Busting the myths most of us believe about commitment, Reeder shows that it all comes down to four variables.
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Practical, but misses passion
- By ANDRÉ on 11-07-14
By: Heidi Reeder PhD
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Mindwise
- Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want
- By: Nicholas Epley
- Narrated by: Nicholas Epley
- Length: 6 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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You are a mind reader, born with an extraordinary ability to understand what others think, feel, believe, want, and know. It's a sixth sense you use every day, in every personal and professional relationship you have. At its best, this ability allows you to achieve the most important goal in almost any life: connecting, deeply and intimately and honestly, to other human beings. At its worst, it is a source of misunderstanding and unnecessary conflict, leading to damaged relationships and broken dreams. How good are you at knowing the minds of others?
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Finally gave up - no real point
- By Thomas on 05-12-14
By: Nicholas Epley
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The Secret Thoughts of Successful Women
- Why Capable People Suffer from the Impostor Syndrome and How to Thrive in Spite of It
- By: Valerie Young
- Narrated by: Susan Ericksen
- Length: 9 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
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It's only because they like me. I was in the right place at the right time. I just work harder than the others. I don't deserve this. It's just a matter of time before I am found out. Someone must have made a terrible mistake. If you are a working woman, chances are this internal monologue sounds all too familiar. And you're not alone. A shocking number of accomplished women in all career paths and at every level feel as though they are faking it - impostors in their own lives and careers.
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Don’t read between the title lines
- By Amazon Customer on 02-28-18
By: Valerie Young
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The Upside of Irrationality
- The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home
- By: Dan Ariely
- Narrated by: Simon Jones
- Length: 8 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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In his groundbreaking book Predictably Irrational, social scientist Dan Ariely revealed the multiple biases that lead us into making unwise decisions. Now, in The Upside of Irrationality, he exposes the surprising negative and positive effects irrationality can have on our lives. Focusing on our behaviors at work and in relationships, he offers new insights and eye-opening truths about what really motivates us on the job.
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Not as good as the first
- By Stephen on 06-20-10
By: Dan Ariely
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The Upside of Your Dark Side
- Why Being Your Whole Self - Not Just Your "Good" Self - Drives Success and Fulfillment
- By: Todd Kashdan, Robert Biswas-Diener
- Narrated by: Jeff Cummings
- Length: 8 hrs
- Unabridged
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In The Upside of Your Dark Side, two pioneering researchers in the field of psychology show that while mindfulness, kindness, and positivity can take us far, they cannot take us all the way. Sometimes, they can even hold us back. Emotions like anger, anxiety, or doubt might be uncomfortable, but it turns out that they are also incredibly useful.
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Boring and learned nothing
- By Taryn on 07-25-16
By: Todd Kashdan, and others
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