The Signal and the Noise

Why So Many Predictions Fail - but Some Don't

By: Nate Silver

Narrated by: Mike Chamberlain

Length: 16 hrs and 21 mins

Publisher's summary

Updated for 2020 with a new Preface by Nate Silver.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.

Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball to global pandemics, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good - or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary - and dangerous - science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential listen.

©2012 Nate Silver (P)2012 Penguin Audio

Critic reviews

"One of the more momentous books of the decade." (The New York Times Book Review)

"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise.... Lively prose - from energetic to outraged...illustrates his dos and don’ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics...[the] chapter on global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses I’ve seen...even the noise makes for a good read." (New York Times)

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction - without academic mathematics - cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism." (New York Review of Books)

stretch the way you think

the world is much more complicated than you think. I was surprised with the open perspective of this book, it challenged me to reevaluate some of my own preconceived ideas. I don't think the author get everything right, but his thinking is on the right track. definitely recommend this book for anyone who wants to think more critically about their predictions.

So much data and we still can't predict correctly

If you could sum up The Signal and the Noise in three words, what would they be?

Smart, eye-opening, sharp.

What was one of the most memorable moments of The Signal and the Noise?

Learning that despite all the data that we now collect on everything, that we still aren't very good at making predictions based on it. There's almost too much data.

Which scene was your favorite?

The chapters regarding poker, the economy, and stock trading were particular interesting. The chess one was interesting too, but listening to it as an audio book was a little difficult.

Was this a book you wanted to listen to all in one sitting?

I would listen to this on drives to and from work. Makes the commute go by much quicker.

Any additional comments?

There are a number of charts and graphs that are in the book that you have available for the audio book, but I didn't have them out while listening (was driving). I found it didn't take away from the overall experience without seeing them though.

Decent

I just with it had gotten more technical. It was mostly a long book making the argument for Bayes Theorem.

Good book, bad metaphysics

Does Bayses theorem apply to picking Bayses theorem?


This book could also have easily been half (or even less) of its size.

bases theorem

lots of good content and very educational. this book gives you new way to look at the world.

the pacing was a little off for me, and in places tended to drone on.

Great book - boring narrator

I love Nate Silver and thoroughly enjoyed this book. However, the audiobook was very difficult to get through at times, as the narrator’s voice was putting me to sleep.

FASCINATING

Data science for dummies.
A very entertaining intro for those of us who aren't techno-current. Lots of different fields of enquiry used for examples. Enough of the author's personality to keep it lively.
Fun for all --

Loved it

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

This book does a good job giving insight into the difference between noise and signal and the value of being able to tell the difference

Numbers junkie explains addiction in plain English

Any additional comments?

I enjoyed this book, but I'm a bit of a numbers junkie myself. Silver does a great job of explaining complicated subjects in plain English--good enough to make best-seller lists. He explains predictions for politics, weather, baseball, poker, economics including the stock market, earthquakes, global climate change, and terrorism. He ties this together with Bayesian statistics. He describes this in terms that anyone can apply. Along the way he explains over fitting and under fitting of models. He describes the advantages of models based on physical principles. I enjoyed the way he used betting terms (hedgehog and fox) to describe political pundits. I would make this book required reading for a statistics class. It won't thrill everyone, but anyone who is curious about predictions will enjoy it.

interesting but too long

i enjoyed this book but I can say it was sometimes unnecessarily long. the examples are long but if you really want to understand they are really deep examples.