-
The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- Narrated by: Laural Merlington
- Length: 11 hrs and 51 mins
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Publisher's summary
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok.
In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers and listeners, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years - at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA decoding to Homeland Security.
Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time.
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In Significant Figures, acclaimed mathematician Ian Stewart introduces the visionaries of mathematics throughout history. Delving into the lives of twenty-five great mathematicians, Stewart examines the roles they played in creating, inventing, and discovering the mathematics we use today. Through these short biographies, we get acquainted with the history of mathematics.
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Beware
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Know This
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- Length: 14 hrs and 39 mins
- Unabridged
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Scientific developments radically alter our understanding of the world. Whether it's technology, climate change, health research, or the latest revelations of neuroscience, physics, or psychology, science has, as Edge editor John Brockman says, "become a big story, if not the big story". In that spirit this new addition to Edge.org's fascinating series asks a powerful and provocative question: What do you consider the most interesting and important recent scientific news?
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Pete and Repeat and Re-repeat
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By: John Brockman
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Headstrong
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- Narrated by: Lauren Fortgang
- Length: 7 hrs and 1 min
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In 2013, the New York Times published an obituary for Yvonne Brill. It began: “She made a mean beef stroganoff, followed her husband from job to job, and took eight years off from work to raise three children.” It wasn’t until the second paragraph that readers discovered why the Times had devoted several hundred words to her life: Brill was a brilliant rocket scientist who invented a propulsion system to keep communications satellites in orbit, and had recently been awarded the National Medal of Technology and Innovation.
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Role models for young women
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Big Science
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Since the 1930s, the scale of scientific endeavors has grown exponentially. The birth of Big Science can be traced to Berkeley, California, nearly nine decades ago, when a resourceful young scientist pondered his new invention and declared, "I'm going to be famous!" Ernest Orlando Lawrence's cyclotron would revolutionize nuclear physics, but that was only the beginning of its impact.This is the incredible story of how one invention changed the world and of the man principally responsible for it all. Michael Hiltzik tells the riveting full story here for the first time.
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An informative and thought-provoking book
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The Upright Thinkers
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In this fascinating and illuminating work, Leonard Mlodinow guides us through the critical eras and events in the development of science, all of which, he demonstrates, were propelled forward by humankind's collective struggle to know. From the birth of reasoning and culture to the formation of the studies of physics, chemistry, biology, and modern-day quantum physics, we come to see that much of our progress can be attributed to simple questions - why? how? - bravely asked.
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10/10 Got What I Wanted.
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American taxpayers spend $30 billion annually funding biomedical research, but over half of these studies can't be replicated due to poor experimental design, improper methods, and sloppy statistics. Bad science doesn't just hold back medical progress, it can sign the equivalent of a death sentence for terminal patients. In Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris explores these urgent issues with vivid anecdotes, personal stories, and interviews with the top biomedical researchers. We need to fix our dysfunctional biomedical system - before it's too late.
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Eye opening introduction to biomedical R&D
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Warnings
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Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the US economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?
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On prediction, catastrophe and mitigation
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The Master Algorithm
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Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
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Great book, irritating narration
- By N. G. PEPIN on 09-24-15
By: Pedro Domingos
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How the Hippies Saved Physics
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In the 1970s, amid severe cutbacks in physics funding, a small group of underemployed physicists in Berkeley decided to throw off the constraints of academia and explore the wilder side of science. Dubbing themselves the “Fundamental Fysiks Group,” they pursued a freewheeling, speculative approach to physics. Some dabbled with LSD while conducting experiments. They studied quantum theory alongside Eastern mysticism and psychic mind reading, discussing the latest developments while lounging in hot tubs.
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Finally, I understand entanglement
- By Gary on 05-27-12
By: David Kaiser
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The Imagineers of War
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The definitive history of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency, the Pentagon agency that has quietly shaped war and technology for nearly 60 years. Founded in 1958 in response to the launch of Sputnik, the agency's original mission was to create "the unimagined weapons of the future". Over the decades, DARPA has been responsible for countless inventions and technologies that extend well beyond military technology.
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Blandly written story about DARPA politics
- By Syed on 04-18-17
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What listeners say about The Theory That Would Not Die
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Billy
- 07-21-14
Who is the intended audience?
The book would totally baffle me if I didn't do statistics for a living because McGrayne doesn't even give an example of how Bayes' Rule works until about halfway through the book (using the cigarettes study as an example). She merely tells us that frequentists don't like it but don't explain the underly differences between their approaches. But even with all that assumed knowledge, she doesn't talk about any of the underlying math.
Thus the book assumes too much knowledge on the part of the reader for the book to be for the uninitiated but doesn't give enough information for the initiated. Who is the intended audience? I can't even tell.
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21 people found this helpful
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- Lynn
- 07-15-12
Read Up on Baye's Before Reading
Sharon McGrayne tackles Baye’s Rule in her volume The Theory that Would Not Die. Along the way she shows how the ‘rule’ has gone under only to reappear in different times, be used in different places, and gather influence under varied circumstances. I found the narrative engaging and the history she presents informative. I wish, however, that she had had an early chapter discussing what Baye’s Rule is, how it works, and what it means to users. Baye’s Rule is well available to those with simple math ability and it seems the book would have a wider audience had she made this allowance. So, if you are familiar with Baye’s Theorem pick up the book and turn some pages. If you are not familiar with the theorem, read up on it a little and then turn those pages. There are unexpected insights in every chapter. The narration of Laural Merlington is good.
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20 people found this helpful
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- Ronald
- 05-17-12
Poorly read
What did you like about this audiobook?
Did a good job of constructing a story about a particular statistical technique. She overdoes it. Bayes theorm is not the same as the story of Seabiscuit.
What did you find wrong about the narrator's performance?
At first I thought she was a computer generated voice. Her cadence was was odd, adding syllables at random. Many names were mispronounced.
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12 people found this helpful
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- Chris Lunt
- 11-30-12
All the wrong details
Would you like to hear about warring academic camps, or would you rather understand in detail how Bayes was applied to solve the problems mentioned in the title? If it's the latter, you'll be disappointed.
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10 people found this helpful
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- Mr. Anonymous
- 09-15-12
Maybe it's me, but I still don't understand Bayes
I've taken two statistics classes in my life, and I remember being confused by Bayes in both classes. So I was hoping that this book would clarify matters for me. Sadly, it didn't. I fully realize that the fault might be my own -- maybe I just don't have a mind for statistics.
The book did have some interesting stories in it, such as the one about the massive search for a missing atomic bomb that fell into the ocean. However, I never did understand why Bayes' Rule was so controversial (if it works so well in practice, what's not to like about it?), and I'm just as confused as ever about the nuts & bolts of the theorem. I'm almost tempted to crack my old statistics textbooks. Almost.
Incidentally, the reader mispronounced a lot of names.
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- HBOMB4276
- 09-17-12
Fun read, but no depth (if you're a math nerd)
Would you recommend this book to a friend? Why or why not?
If you are looking to hear the math behind how Bayes' Rule did the things it did, you'll come away disappointed. However, this is an entertaining history of how this theorem formed the basis for much of the successes of applied mathematics and statistics over the last 100 years.Learning many of the details of the personal lives / personalities of the some of the founding fathers of modern statistics (Fisher, Pearson, et al) and their battles over the use of this rule was one highlight of this book.
What aspect of Laural Merlington’s performance would you have changed?
Ms Merlingtons' performance was solid...very listenable especially given a relatively dry topic.
Was The Theory That Would Not Die worth the listening time?
Yes, very definitely.
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- The Ayres
- 04-22-12
Maybe I wanted more out of this...
What did you like best about The Theory That Would Not Die? What did you like least?
This work should be tagged clearly as primarily an historical treatment of the concepts attributed to Bayes, as well as their evolution. I was hoping for more exposition of the technical details involved in many of the controversies the author documents rather than highlighting the most outrageous position statements on the part of each party. Her treatment of "classified" research and the role of government secrecy in impeding progress that allowed extreme doctrinaire positions to be taken and held for long periods among the academics involved is yet another case for free and unimpeded scientific discourse.
What was the most compelling aspect of this narrative?
For me, treatment of the ways in which application of Bayes Rule crossed so many disciplinary boundaries was enlightening. I had little idea how widespread so-called Bayesian approaches had become in Science outside the fields I'd chosen to study, Sociology and Anthropology. So-called "Simple Random Sample" or SRS designs were the orthodoxy of the day when I was a student. Some challenged this orthodoxy with so-called "purposive" sample designs which proved to be much more efficient in a wide variety of cases.
Back when I was a graduate student and Senior Research Associate at the University of Michigan, I was asked to help faciliate "brute force" repeated replications of the process of sampling from some large datasets we had obtained from the auto industry. We used multiply replicated samples to produce empirical assessments of five theoretically proposed measures of efficiency (Standard Error of Estimate) for a variety of sample designs used to perform multivariate regression analyses on the dataset. I implemented and optimized the Fortran code used to draw the samples and tabulate the resulting theoretical and acutal measures of efficiency for each sample. The resulting PhD dissertation "sold" over a thousand copies before it had been available for six months! The tables we printed were apparently extremely useful to a variety of practicioners who knew that the underlying distributions of the phenomena they had under study were not "normal."
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6 people found this helpful
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- John C.
- 07-02-19
I don't get the bad reviews...
Plain and simple, if you want to learn the intricacies of Bayes Theorem please go to a textbook, there are 100's of them out there. This book was written by a journalist on the history and important events that led to the rebirth of Bayes on the 20th century. If you're familiar with Bayes, this book for sure will give you a new perspective on the topic.
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- Ivan
- 11-10-12
A fascinating story
The history of Bayesian statistics is fascinating, and this book ably tells the story of its twists and turns. I can understand why the author wants to insulate the reader from the mathematics, but I would have preferred a little more technical detail, especially as it applies to numerical methods. You'll come away from this book understanding how useful Bayesian inference is, but you probably won't learn very much about how it works.
I had no trouble understanding the narrator, but this is the first audiobook I've listened to in which some proper names (especially French names) were horribly mispronounced.
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- Dutch Breckinridge
- 10-14-20
Illuminated historical and personal experience of centuries of users. Well told, not technical reference.
The saga of Bayes theorem, development and uses is presented in an engaging and well told tale. The best way to think about this book is like that of Bates theorem itsel. Whatever you know prior to reading it, will be improved by the reading. The fundamental truth of closer approximation by increased data is fully explored.
The actual probability equations are rarely referenced. You will certainly know the historical and upto 2010 or so, the current authors.
I recommend this book for background and historical perspectives. Technically if you seek detailed algorithms, this is not your read.
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