Showing results by author "Philip E. Tetlock"

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    • Superforecasting

    • The Art and Science of Prediction
    • By: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner
    • Narrated by: Joel Richards
    • Length: 9 hrs and 45 mins
    • Unabridged
    • Overall
      4.5 out of 5 stars 2,606
    • Performance
      4.5 out of 5 stars 2,246
    • Story
      4.5 out of 5 stars 2,248

    Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.

    • 5 out of 5 stars
    • Great for Experts

    • By Michael on 02-20-17

    Regular price: $19.95

    • Expert Political Judgment

    • How Good is it? How can We Know?
    • By: Philip E. Tetlock
    • Narrated by: Anthony Haden Salerno
    • Length: 9 hrs and 48 mins
    • Unabridged
    • Overall
      3.5 out of 5 stars 47
    • Performance
      3.5 out of 5 stars 41
    • Story
      4 out of 5 stars 40

    The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.

    • 4 out of 5 stars
    • Highly engaging. Listen at 2x speed

    • By Henry Carr on 03-13-15

    Regular price: $19.95