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End Times
- Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration
- Narrated by: Robin McAlpine
- Length: 10 hrs and 4 mins
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Publisher's summary
“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
From the pioneering co-founder of cliodynamics, the groundbreaking new interdisciplinary science of history, a big-picture explanation for America's civil strife and its possible endgames
Peter Turchin, one of the most interesting social scientists of our age, has infused the study of history with approaches and insights from other fields for more than a quarter century. End Times is the culmination of his work to understand what causes political communities to cohere and what causes them to fall apart, as applied to the current turmoil within the United States.
Back in 2010, when Nature magazine asked leading scientists to provide a ten-year forecast, Turchin used his models to predict that America was in a spiral of social disintegration that would lead to a breakdown in the political order circa 2020. The years since have proved his prediction more and more accurate, and End Times reveals why.
The lessons of world history are clear, Turchin argues: When the equilibrium between ruling elites and the majority tips too far in favor of elites, political instability is all but inevitable. As income inequality surges and prosperity flows disproportionately into the hands of the elites, the common people suffer, and society-wide efforts to become an elite grow ever more frenzied. He calls this process the wealth pump; it’s a world of the damned and the saved. And since the number of such positions remains relatively fixed, the overproduction of elites inevitably leads to frustrated elite aspirants, who harness popular resentment to turn against the established order. Turchin’s models show that when this state has been reached, societies become locked in a death spiral it's very hard to exit.
In America, the wealth pump has been operating full blast for two generations. As cliodynamics shows us, our current cycle of elite overproduction and popular immiseration is far along the path to violent political rupture. That is only one possible end time, and the choice is up to us, but the hour grows late.
Critic reviews
“In End Times: Elites, Counter-Elites, and the Path of Political Disintegration, Mr. Turchin offers a lucid and elegant theory that is stable across time and place in the manner of natural laws and scientific findings.” —Wall Street Journal
“Peter Turchin brings science to history. Some like it and some prefer their history plain. But everyone needs to pay attention to the well-informed, convincing and terrifying analysis in this book.” —Angus Deaton, winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics
“Scintillating . . . Turchin’s elegantly written treatment looks beneath partisan jousting to class interests that cycle over generations, but also yields timely policy insights. It’s a stimulating analysis of antagonisms past and present, and the crack-up they may be leading to.” —Publishers Weekly (starred review)
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Revolt is an eloquent and provocative challenge to the prevailing wisdom about the rise of nationalism and populism. With a vibrant and informed voice, Nadav Eyal illustrates how modern globalization is not sustainable. He contends that the collapse of the current world order is not so much about the imbalance between technological achievement and social progress or the breakdown of liberal democracy as it is about a passion to upend and destroy power structures that have become hollow, corrupt, or simply unresponsive to urgent needs.
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Good observations, very politically biased.
- By P. Bradley on 11-29-23
By: Nadav Eyal
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The Conscience of a Liberal
- By: Paul Krugman
- Narrated by: Jason Culp
- Length: 9 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
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America emerged from Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal with strong democratic values and broadly shared prosperity. But for the past 30 years, American politics has been dominated by a conservative movement determined to undermine the New Deal's achievements. Now, the tide may be turning, and in The Conscience of a Liberal Paul Krugman, the world's most widely read economist and one of its most influential political commentators, charts the way to reform.
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Great Book!!!
- By carl801 on 12-04-07
By: Paul Krugman
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Lee Kuan Yew
- The Grand Master’s Insights on China, United States, and the World
- By: Graham Allison, Robert D. Blackwill, Ali Wyne
- Narrated by: Michael McConnohie, Francis Chau
- Length: 4 hrs and 41 mins
- Unabridged
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Lee, the founding father of modern Singapore and its prime minister from 1959 to 1990, has honed his wisdom during more than fifty years on the world stage. Almost single-handedly responsible for transforming Singapore into a Western-style economic success, he offers a unique perspective on the geopolitics of East and West. American presidents from Richard Nixon to Barack Obama have welcomed him to the White House.
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Thought-provoking
- By Jean on 12-11-14
By: Graham Allison, and others
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How the World Works
- By: Noam Chomsky, David Barsamian - interviewer, Arthur Naiman - editor
- Narrated by: Eric Jason Martin
- Length: 12 hrs and 20 mins
- Unabridged
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According to The New York Times, Noam Chomsky is "arguably the most important intellectual alive." But he isn't easy to read...or at least he wasn't until these books came along. Made up of intensively edited speeches and interviews, they offer something not found anywhere else: pure Chomsky, with every dazzling idea and penetrating insight intact, delivered in clear, accessible, listener-friendly prose.
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Insightful Content
- By Amazon Customer on 01-30-21
By: Noam Chomsky, and others
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The People vs. Democracy
- Why Our Freedom Is in Danger and How to Save It
- By: Yascha Mounk
- Narrated by: Timothy Andrés Pabon
- Length: 8 hrs and 31 mins
- Unabridged
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The world is in turmoil. From India to Turkey and from Poland to the United States, authoritarian populists have seized power. As a result democracy itself may now be at risk. Two core components of liberal democracy - individual rights and the popular will - are at war with each other. As the role of money in politics soared and important issues were taken out of public contestation, a system of "rights without democracy" took hold. Populists who rail against this say they want to return power to the people. But in practice they create a system of "democracy without rights."
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Not worth it
- By DailyShopper on 06-07-18
By: Yascha Mounk
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The Decline and Rise of Democracy
- A Global History from Antiquity to Today
- By: David Stastavage
- Narrated by: Tom Perkins
- Length: 11 hrs and 34 mins
- Unabridged
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Historical accounts of democracy's rise tend to focus on ancient Greece and pre-Renaissance Europe. The Decline and Rise of Democracy draws from global evidence to show that the story is much richer - democratic practices were present in many places at many other times. David Stasavage makes the case that understanding how and where these democracies flourished - and when and why they declined - can provide crucial information not just about the history of governance, but about the ways modern democracies work and where they could manifest in the future.
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Informative
- By Frank on 12-22-20
By: David Stastavage
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The Precipice
- Neoliberalism, the Pandemic and the Urgent Need for Social Change
- By: Noam Chomsky, C.J. Polychroniou
- Narrated by: Eric Jason Martin
- Length: 13 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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In The Precipice, Noam Chomsky sheds light into the phenomenon of Trumpism, exposes the catastrophic nature and impact of Trump's policies on people, the environment, and the planet as a whole, and captures the dynamics of the brutal class warfare launched by the masters of capital to maintain and even enhance the features of a dog-eat-dog society to the unprecedented mobilization of millions of people against neoliberal capitalism, racism, and police violence.
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Of Incalculable Importance
- By Anonymous User on 12-15-21
By: Noam Chomsky, and others
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The Fourth Revolution
- The Global Race to Reinvent the State
- By: John Micklethwait, Adrian Wooldridge
- Narrated by: Chris Sorensen
- Length: 10 hrs and 5 mins
- Unabridged
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From the best-selling authors of The Right Nation, a visionary argument that our current crisis in government is nothing less than the fourth radical transition in the history of the nation-state. Dysfunctional government: It' s become a cliché, and most of us are resigned to the fact that nothing is ever going to change. As John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge show us, that is a seriously limited view of things. In fact, there have been three great revolutions in government in the history of the modern world.
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A must read for everyone wondering whats going?
- By Truth-be-told on 03-30-15
By: John Micklethwait, and others
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The Human Tide
- How Population Shaped the Modern World
- By: Paul Morland
- Narrated by: Zeb Soanes
- Length: 10 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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The rise and fall of the British Empire; the emergence of America as a superpower; the ebb and flow of global challenges from Nazi Germany, Imperial Japan, and Soviet Russia. These are the headlines of history, but they cannot be properly grasped without understanding the role that population has played. The Human Tide shows how periods of rapid population transition - a phenomenon that first emerged in the British Isles but gradually spread across the globe - shaped the course of world history.
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dry
- By Ralph C. on 05-02-19
By: Paul Morland
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The World
- A Brief Introduction
- By: Richard Haass
- Narrated by: Dan Woren
- Length: 10 hrs and 24 mins
- Unabridged
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The World is designed to provide listeners of any age and experience with the essential background and building blocks they need to make sense of this complicated and interconnected world. It will empower them to manage the flood of daily news. Listeners will become more informed, discerning citizens, better able to arrive at sound, independent judgments. While it is impossible to predict what the next crisis will be or where it will originate, those who listen to The World will have what they need to understand its basics and the principal choices for how to respond.
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Excellent Primer for young adults
- By Howells on 05-24-20
By: Richard Haass
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Decline and Fall
- The End of Empire and the Future of Democracy in 21st Century America
- By: John Michael Greer
- Narrated by: Kristoffer Tabori
- Length: 10 hrs and 22 mins
- Unabridged
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The decline and fall of America's global empire is the central feature of today's geopolitical landscape, and the nature of our response to it will determine much of our future trajectory, with implications that reach far beyond the limits of one nation's borders. Decline and Fall: The End of Empire and the Future of Democracy in 21st Century America challenges the conventional wisdom of empire, using a wealth of historical examples combined with groundbreaking original analysis.
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Will insist friends & family read this book
- By Paul on 05-14-16
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The Stakes
- America at the Point of No Return
- By: Michael Anton
- Narrated by: Dan Crue
- Length: 16 hrs and 52 mins
- Unabridged
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Two months before the 2016 presidential election, an anonymously published essay titled "The Flight 93 Election" rallied conservatives to charge the cockpit by voting for Trump. Michael Anton, the author of that controversial viral essay, now says that the last few years have only served to prove his Flight 93 thesis: The left has become more aggressive, more vindictive, and more dangerous - and the stakes have never been higher.
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America, this is your future
- By Sarah Carnello on 09-28-20
By: Michael Anton
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In 2020, the novel coronavirus pandemic made it painfully clear that the U.S. could not adequately protect its citizens. Millions of Americans suffered—and over a million died—in less than two years, while government officials blundered; prize-winning economists overlooked devastating trade-offs; and elites escaped to isolated retreats, unaffected by and even profiting from the pandemic. Why and how did America, in a catastrophically enormous failure, become the world leader in COVID deaths? Veteran journalists Bethany McLean and Joe Nocera offer fresh and provocative answers.
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Finally the truth is coming to light and the gaslighting is coming to an end
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Days of Rage
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From the best-selling author of Public Enemies and The Big Rich, an explosive account of the decade-long battle between the FBI and the homegrown revolutionary movements of the 1970s. The FBI combated these groups and others as nodes in a single revolutionary underground, dedicated to the violent overthrow of the American government. The FBI’s response to the leftist revolutionary counterculture has not been treated kindly by history, and in hindsight many of its efforts seem almost comically ineffectual, if not criminal in themselves.
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Amazing treatment of tough history
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What listeners say about End Times
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- Mike
- 06-28-23
History Simulator v2.0
This approach to predicting the trajectory of societies - cliodynamics - strikes a middle path between the Great Man theory of history (which is erroneous), and theory-free big data analyses of history (which are prone to failure). Cliodynamics seeks first to create historically-informed mathematical models of organized groups, then employ big data to exercise said models to make predictions. As an aerospace engineer who has made mathematical models of various aircraft and missiles in order to run simulations, I recognize Turchin as a kindred spirit, and it's high-time someone has used math and complexity science in the employ of history. This is the method (the "v2.0" in my headline nods to Turchin's brief discussion of various antecedents to cliodynamics); what I've not discussed here are Turchin's results, which are fascinating in their own right. A powerful read for the methodology or results alone.
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- Deja ReVu
- 06-16-23
Poor recording for audiobook
Had to stop listening. Somehow Robin McAlpine's usually great voice voice sounds more nasal to the point of slight distortion with a hint of helium balloon. Painful.
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4 people found this helpful
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- Brandywine
- 01-19-24
wow. incredible analysis
We really enjoyed listening to this book. The narration was really well done and the content was fantastic. This is not a book that you can just sit down and listen to with any distractions around. Pay attention.
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- Dave Schwab
- 09-21-24
Interesting but flawed
A fascinating but entirely unconvincing model that lacks cohesive predictions, parameters, or usefulness. This could easily be told in a much shorter format with far less filler material.
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- Josh
- 07-26-23
Please bring more of his books to Audible.
I do not agree with everything the author writes, but I find his methodological transparency refreshing and I find his method persuasive.
The narration was good, but sometimes the first sound of a sentence would get clipped, so it sounded like the first word was missing.
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1 person found this helpful
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- Marilyn Ostergren
- 08-18-23
Gave me new perspective
Fascinating. Gave me a whole new perspective about social and political realities that resonates as true. I find myself talking to others about it and interpreting news stories through this lens.
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- Anonymous User
- 09-09-24
Tells the dynamics of history!
An informative look at how societies rise and fall! In depth analysis of the goings on of structural problems in society!
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- Kindle Customer
- 06-15-23
Beyond excellent
This book is a beyond excellent synthesis and extension of Turchin's body of work. I discovered his research from references in the publications of the Santa Fe Institute and have read all of his books at this point, and his work has done a lot to shape my views of the world. I've been waiting for this book for a year and it doesn't dissappoint. It's data-backed, evidence-based, sophisticated, clear and compelling. It's cutting edge.
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- Mark Hutchings
- 04-04-24
Great identification of causes of discord in society, but marred by the author’s Marxist ideologies.
The identification of some of the root causes of destabilization in society is spot on but the paradigm through which this information is viewed is highly Marxist, or relies on cheap liberal tropes. The idealization of an all encompassing administrative welfare state as the obvious solution to inequalities in wealth and opportunity is naive and completely belied by the most basic historic observations.
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- Otherguy2036475
- 09-19-23
An interesting thesis left wanting economic depth.
I found this book frustrating. The opening chapters provide an interesting thesis, capturing the writers intentions well. Throughout the work, historical examples are provided, with scenarios both insightful and unnerving. I cannot however, help but feel the work here is unfinished.
This writer has a clear penchant for sociology. The majority of the premise based logic is structured clearly. Economic readers however, may find themselves howling, begging, pleading even, for the writer to explore some of the connections to historical economic events. Several economic statements within the text rely on argumentum ad populum, and other conclusions are drawn in complete absentia of economic premise. The book suffers many the same pitfalls of several 20th and early 21st century sociologist forays into socioeconomics, insofar as while the qualitative sociological logic builds an interesting case, the quantitative pillars to support economic aspects are left wanting. We are left with polling data from inopportune time periods, small sample sizes and even a bit of self coined terminology.
Economic insights are defined within a labor participation and labor wage myopia, eschewing the concepts of economic expansion or the implications of raising or lowering the cost of capital. In a scenario in the early stages of the book, one must only ask, ‘what if the aspirants build another chair?’ One might also consider limiting aspirants by increasing the cost of aspiring. Conversely, would decreasing the cost of aspiring, say over the course of 10 years, lead to more aspirants and thus decrease stability? This myopia is further compounded later in the book, when major monetary events, both in expansion and contraction correlating directly with periods of unrest go unmentioned. What remains is the concept of a ‘wealth pump’ that redistributes wealth within a fixed system, the primary variable being labor.
The sociology and perspectives in this book are engaging. The economic portion of the text could have been a knockout. But on the economic front, we are left with another Keynesian labor story that is grasping far an answer it already has.
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