Future Forecasting

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight.

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger - all by the time he was 30. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data.

The breakthrough concepts of Pattern Breakers come from the observations of Mike Maples Jr., a seasoned venture capitalist, who noticed something strange. Start-ups like Twitter, Twitch, and Lyft had achieved extraordinary success despite their disregard for “best practices.” In contrast, other startups deemed highly promising often failed, even when they seemed to do everything right. Seeking answers, Maples and coauthor Peter Ziebelman set out to discover the hidden forces that drive extraordinary start-up success.

In their book Abundance, best-selling authors and futurists Peter Diamandis and Steven Kotler tackled grand global challenges, such as poverty, hunger, and energy. Then, in Bold, they chronicled the use of exponential technologies that allowed the emergence of powerful new entrepreneurs. Now the best-selling authors are back with The Future Is Faster Than You Think, a blueprint for how our world will change in response to the next 10 years of rapid technological disruption.

Drawing on a wide array of people and places, Uncharted traces long-term projects that shrewdly evolved over generations to meet the unpredictable challenges of every new age. Heffernan also looks at radical exercises and experiments that redefined standard practices by embracing different perspectives and testing fresh approaches. Preparing to confront a variable future provides the antidote to passivity and prediction.

Discover what the future has in store with divination! Unlock the enigmatic portals to the unknown and tap into the cosmic energies that shape destinies. Whether you're a novice to the world of divination or a seasoned practitioner, this comprehensive guide will immerse you in the potent arts of foreseeing the future. Delve into age-old Spells and Rituals: Tarot Card Reading: Decode the symbolism of the tarot to unravel life's mysteries. Lecanomancy: Let the ripples in water reveal the truths you seek. Runestone Casting: Harness the power of ancient runes and let them guide your path. ...

Gigatrends offers a roadmap for navigating six of the most disruptive trends shaping the future. Humanity stands at the precipice of a remarkable new era in global history filled with both immense opportunities and daunting challenges. Gigatrends examines how six disruptive trends can be harnessed to create new social, economic, and organizational solutions that will usher in the promise of a human-centered future for billions of people.

Like all of us, though few so visibly, Alan Greenspan was forced by the financial crisis of 2008 to question some fundamental assumptions about risk management and economic forecasting. No one with any meaningful role in economic decision making in the world saw beforehand the storm for what it was. How had our models so utterly failed us? To answer this question, Alan Greenspan embarked on a rigorous and far-reaching multiyear examination of how Homo economicus predicts the economic future, and how it can predict it better.

The world is changing drastically before our eyes - will you be prepared for what comes next? A groundbreaking analysis from one of the world's foremost experts on global trends, including analysis on how COVID-19 will amplify and accelerate each of these changes. By 2030: there will be more grandparents than grandchildren; the middle class in Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will outnumber the US and Europe combined; the global economy will be driven by the non-Western consumer for the first time in modern history; and much more....

From leading global futurist and advisor James Canton, the acclaimed author of The Extreme Future and Technofutures, comes Future Smart: the essential blueprint on what's coming next. It details the key changes--in health and medicine, technology and communication, the global economy, the Earth's climate, energy, and business--that every person, company, and government must understand in order not only to adapt accordingly but to thrive in the coming decades.

Over the past two centuries or so, capitalism has undergone profound changes - economic cycles that veer from boom to bust - from which it has always emerged transformed and strengthened. Surveying this turbulent history, Paul Mason's Postcapitalism argues that we are on the brink of a change so big and so profound that this time capitalism itself, the immensely complex system within which entire societies function, will mutate into something wholly new.

The author of the acclaimed New York Times best seller The Next 100 Years now focuses his geopolitical forecasting acumen on the next decade and the imminent events and challenges that will test America and the world, specifically addressing the skills that will be required by the decade’s leaders. The next 10 years will be a time of massive transition. In The Next Decade, George Friedman offers listeners a pro­vocative and endlessly fascinating prognosis for the immedi­ate future.

This myth shattering book reveals the methods Nouriel Roubini used to foretell the current crisis before other economists saw it coming and shows how those methods can help us make sense of the present and prepare for the future. Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini electrified his profession and the larger financial community by predicting the current crisis well in advance of anyone else.

New York Times best-selling author and legendary investment guru Ric Edelman reveals his forward-thinking guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future.

Introducing the ultimate guide to mastering the art of forecasting economic growth! Whether you're an aspiring economist or a seasoned investor, "The Art of Forecasting Economic Growth" is your go-to source for unlocking the secrets of economic forecasting. This comprehensive eBook takes you on a journey through 19 chapters, each designed to give you a deep understanding of the factors that influence economic growth. From the importance of economic indicators to the effects of government policies, international trade, and environmental factors, this eBook covers all the essential topics. ...

We are living in a strange world—Salmon calls it “the New Not Normal.” The Phoenix Economy explores the ramifications of the pandemic years, many of which are surprisingly positive. In doing so, Salmon makes sense of one of the most disorienting and devastating events of our lifetimes. He examines the critical aspects of our lives that have been transformed in three parts: Time and Space, Mind and Body, and Business and Pleasure.

We are in the midst of an unprecedented degree of technology-driven change at the same time that society faces challenges more complex than our organizations and we as individuals have been prepared to handle. Autonomous Transformation: Creating a More Human Future in the Era of Artificial Intelligence is for leaders who want to create a better future within this context of change and supplies a balance of historical and theoretical context with practical frameworks for beginning to create a more human future today.

How do you tell a real trend from the merely trendy? How, for example, will a technology—like artificial intelligence, machine learning, self-driving cars, biohacking, bots, and the Internet of Things—affect us, our businesses, and workplaces? How will it eventually change the way we live, work, play, and think—and how should we prepare for it now? In The Signals Are Talking, noted futurist Amy Webb shows us how to analyze the "true signals" and land on the right side of disruption.

In today’s world, the acceleration of megatrends – increasing longevity and the explosion of technology among many others – are transforming life as we now know it. In The Perennials, bestselling author of 2030 Mauro Guillén unpacks a sweeping societal shift triggered by demographic and technological transformation. Guillén argues that outmoded terms like Boomers, Gen X, Millennials, and Gen Z have long been used to pigeonhole us into rigid categories and life stages, artificially preventing people from reaching their full potential.

Sometimes the events that seem pivotal are just blips, while the more meaningful cultural shifts are hiding in plain sight. Marian Salzman’s job is to uncover those hidden shifts. So what’s in store for the next two decades? In this acutely observed guide, Salzman, whose past predictions have been heralded for coming uncannily close to the way we live now, unpacks the course of human life from the bumpy turn of the millennium through the pandemic era.