If it's an election year, there are three certainties you can expect from Congress:

1. 100% of House members are focused on getting re-elected.

2. 33% of Senators are focused on getting re-elected.

3. Probably less than 10% of the country has any belief they'll do something meaningful and significant for the country, other than getting out of DC to stump for their jobs.

Increasingly, though, the two major parties are seeking to both contrast themselves to their opponents while simultaneously appearing unified on issues that are "American" (which feels like a code word for 'nationalist').

The question is with social unrest at home, two geopolitical conflicts where America is contributing money and materiel and a presidential replay coming in November, will anything of substance be passed by both chambers to become law?

If anybody knows the answer to that question, it's Peter Friedmann. Peter wears two hats; one is colloquially "Our man in DC," as he is of Counsel to the Pacific Coast Council - an organization consisting of and representing the interests of customs broker and freight forwarder associations along the US West Coast. His other is as Executive Director of the AgTC, a trade association of agricultural exporters looking for overseas market access and equitable treatment for his members from shipping companies whose commercial and financial focus feels import-centric.

Between mid-May and Election Day, both chambers will be jointly in session for thirty-nine days, with an extra five days for the House and eleven for the Senate. Oh, and that includes not working a single day in October. Nice work if you can get elected to it, huh?

For cargo owners and companies working in support of domestic and global supply chains, there are a multitude of issues being debated. From the retroactive renewal of GSP to OSRA 2.0 and a bevy of proposals encompassing China, de minimis and the EV industry, whether you're directly in the industry or a consumer affected by these proposed bills, logistically speaking, will it be a year of trade or tariffs, and what can and should we expect out of Congress in an election year?

Source Material:

• H.R. 7986 - The GSP Reform Act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7986

• H.R. 7979 - End China's De Minimis Abuse Act. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7979

• H.R. 1833 - The Ocean Shipping Implementation Act of 2023. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/1836

• H.R. 7980 - End Chinese Dominance of Electric Vehicles in America Act of 2024. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/7980

• https://qz.com/biden-us-china-china-tariffs-evs-chips-electric-cars-1851474998

• https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/05/14/fact-sheet-president-biden-takes-action-to-protect-american-workers-and-businesses-from-chinas-unfair-trade-practices/

Despite having recorded episode 04 talking insurance, at the time we spoke no one could have imagined that a containership would strike and destroy bridge, essentially shutting off an entier port from commerce.

Yet that is what happened when the Dali struck a support pillar of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore, taking down the bridge and causing loss of life and billions of dollars in damage for cleanup and new bridge construction.

One week on from the accident, the the investigation process is well underway and federal agencies are working around the clock to safely and quickly re-open the port of Baltimore, the 11th largest port in the United States and the largest port of entry for automobiles, light trucks and operates strong bulk and cruise business that is inaccessible with the closure.

The first legal actions are also being filed, including by the vessel's owner to limit their liability. President Biden promised the US goverment will rebuild the bridge, and they likely will. What undergirds that claim is a complex insurance industry infrastructure that will distribute the loss across multiple entities and ensure that the government and valid claimants are paid.

We asked Philip Bilney to rejoin us - an unusual thing to do after recording once already, but he was kind enough to share his time and contribute his thoughts and insights.

If a butterfly flaps its wings in Asia, a wave crashes against the coastal United States some period of time later, or so the adage goes. Since the attack in Israel last October, besides what is transpiring inside of Gaza, all eyes have been on the Red Sea. The Houthi rebels, whose history in Yemen goes back much further than most people are aware, have made targeting shipping interests a means to gain the world's attention.

The Houthis have said that the attacks on ships and seafarers will continue until such time as there is a cease fire. Most recently, the crew of a UK-flagged vessel was forced to abandon ship after one such attack. Despite the US and other nations' response to the killing of three American servicemembers, the attacks continue. Without getting overtly political, there is a belief that these attacks are being aided by Iran using an intelligence-gathering ship situated right smack in the middle of everything and is helping the Houthis identify potential targets.

Despite an early attempt by several carriers to pass through the area, the inability of a multilateral coalition to sufficiently ensure the safety of all commercial traffic has led carriers to circumnavigate the entirety of the African coast adding both time and cost, plus re-igniting the for-a-period dormant business model of maritime piracy near the southern tip of Africa.

The first reaction of people (and businesses) is to assume that this situation and others in the reason have immediately led to surcharges and higher insurance premiums on cargo in the region. The fact of the matter is, given the way insurance works, there really isn't a bright line from one activity or change in trading conditions to an increase in premiums. It is a much more interconnected web, in fact, that could lead to increases to cargo insurance on other trade lanes, cyber insurance policies or even personal home, auto and health insurance policies, despite the seeming lack of connection between all these coverages.

Joining Cameron and Scott for this episode is Philip Bilney, a man who intimately understands insurance. The Executive Chairman of the +8Partners ecosystem of companies, Phil has spent a lifetime in the insurance industry and markets. Knowledgeable, approachable and with the ability to easily explain complex subjects while providing the necessary background and context to undergird the explanation, Phil is one of the best people to turn to for this issue.