Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

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This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.

00:00 Introduction

01:02 Part One

01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter

02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter

06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored

09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model

14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter

18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter

21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance

23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations

24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence

25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope

27:27 Part Two

27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter

27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership

28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety

36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?

40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword

44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View

46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements

47:01 Credits

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Today, we welcome back Feargal Sharkey, who visited Bubble Trouble last summer and dropped a (water) bomb on our privatized utilities. He’s fought the noble fight to expose Thames Water as profiteering polluters. Nine months later we have a massive credit bubble bursting, dumping toxic sewage in both debt laden shell companies and the real shit floating in our rivers and seas, while private equity owners took out £78bn of dividends since privatization kicked in. A warning: this conversation should make everyone angry, whether you draw a drink, go for a wild swim, or just watch your rising water bill - asking how this utility privatization bubble caused so much trouble.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

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This episode of Bubble Trouble features hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page, with return guest Fergal Sharkey, discussing the failing state of privatized water companies in England. Highlighted are the issues of excessive dividends extracted by private equity owners, the massive debt incurred by water companies, regulatory failures, and the environmental costs of pollution. Sharkie shares his firsthand experiences with water pollution and regulatory battles. The episode delves into the implications of privatization on public resources, the potential for nationalization, and the urgent need for systemic reform in water management amidst mounting public outrage and the looming crisis of water scarcity in London. The conversation encapsulates the complexities of privatization, the financial engineering driving the water industry's woes, and the palpable need for political and regulatory intervention.

00:00 Introduction

00:55 Introducing Repeat Guest Fergal Sharkey: A Deep Dive into Water Industry Woes

00:59 Part One

01:28 Fergal Sharkey's Journey: From Fly Fishing to Fighting Water Privatization

03:27 The Alarming State of England's Privatized Water Industry

06:47 Investigative Journalism and the Mainstream Media's Role

07:44 Exploring the Nationalization Debate and Its Complexities

11:06 Regulatory Failures and the Environmental Catastrophe

14:27 The Financial Quagmire: Debt, Dividends, and the Dire State of Infrastructure

22:00 Addressing the Bondholders: A Call for Accountability

27:12 Part Two

27:12 Looking Ahead: Solutions and the Future of Water Privatization

31:49 The Inefficiency of Global Success

32:11 System-Level Solutions for Water Management

33:14 The Looming Water Crisis in London

34:01 Government's Role in Managing the Water Industry

34:42 The Financial Challenge of Securing London's Water Supply

35:27 Reforming the Water Industry: A Shift in Earnings and Management

35:59 Empathy for the Regulator and the Need for Investment

41:10 Nationalizing the Water Companies: A Strategic Move

47:04 Political Pressure and Regulatory Challenges

49:42 Privatization's Failures and Future Directions

55:20 Concluding Thoughts and the Public's Role

57:34 Credits

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Our recent episode on Reddit was a surprise hit, as was the stock - temporarily - so we’ll be diving into that and much more. This week, a look at the volatile nature of financial markets with discussions around recent events, critiquing the creator economy, speculative frenzy in cryptocurrencies, and tech market overvaluation.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer dive into discussions about financial market volatility and the phenomenon of market bubbles, touching on topics like the recent Reddit IPO and the cryptocurrency crisis exemplified by FTX’s fallout. They critically assess the risk and reality of investments, using illustrative examples to underline the often speculative nature of today’s financial markets. They also segue into discussions on the creator economy, the disruptive potential of AI and chips in the movie industry, and concerns around the instability of personal debt amidst rising interest rates. The episode concludes with recommendations for insightful reads, exploring themes from technological impacts on society to the resilience needed in today's challenging world.

00:02 Introduction

00:38 Part One

06:17 The Reality of Stock Market Manias and Personal Debt

08:25 Exploring the Trump SPAC and the Fate of Cameo

12:45 The Crypto Conundrum: Skepticism Meets Reality

16:52 Part Two

16:52 Navigating the Creator Economy and Tech Innovations at SXSW

22:19 The Economic Impact of Data Centers

22:46 AMD's Influence in the Film Industry

23:31 The Challenges of AI in Hollywood

24:38 Chip Makers: The New Brand Ambassadors

25:31 Rethinking the Creator Economy

26:46 The Long Tail Dilemma in the Creator Economy

27:48 The Misconception of Loyalty in the Digital Age

31:49 Music Industry's Paradox: Growth vs. Sustainability

33:43 Inflation's Impact on the Music Industry

36:43 Easter Reading Recommendations

41:28 Closing Thoughts and Future Episodes

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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in a deep dive conversation with guest Bill Raduchel, exploring his extensive 60-year career transitioning from chemical engineering to economics, and eventually into the tech and media industries. Raduchel discusses his views on conventional wisdom, the evolution of technology, and its implications on economics, suggesting that technology has outpaced neoclassical economic theories due to its scaling properties and the significance of information. He shares insights from his book and experiences, addressing issues like tech debt, government staffing challenges in the face of rapid technological advancements, and the potential impact of AI on the future of software development. The episode covers the dynamic between big tech companies, government regulation, and the inevitable challenges posed by significant shifts towards AI and increased power demands. Raduchel also presents intriguing ideas on innovating government structures and discusses the practicalities of managing a rapidly evolving tech landscape.

00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation

00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics

06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics

08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book

11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges

17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing

19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization

25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics

25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two

25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword

25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity

26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation

27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges

29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization

30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation

31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation

34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech

40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation

42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce

44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation

50:06 Credits

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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…

Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Part One

00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

27:22 Part Two

27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

47:28 Credits

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So let's look forward and prepare you for the next big sexy blockbuster tech IPO, you’ve read all about it - that’s right. Reddit is going to ring the bell.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Reddit's IPO Adventure: A Deep Dive into Valuations, Trends, and Future Prospects

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dissect Reddit's impending IPO, examining its valuation, user base, and revenue streams. The podcast begins with a discussion on the evolution of Reddit and its business model, focusing on the challenges it faces as a business primarily driven by advertising revenue in a competitive digital advertising landscape. Kramer and Page delve into the nuances of Reddit's user engagement and its niche position in the internet culture, juxtaposing it against giants like Meta and Google. They critically analyze the hype surrounding tech IPOs, emphasizing Reddit's $800 million revenue and its struggle to become profitable amidst a sprawling digital advertising world. The episode also covers the broader implications of down rounds and the valuation bubbles that tech companies often face. Through expert insights and a candid conversation, the episode offers a comprehensive view on Reddit's IPO, the tech industry's valuation practices, and what the future holds for user-generated content platforms.

00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: DeepFakes and Bubbles

01:02 Part One

01:06 The Fascinating Shift from Hong Kong to Singapore

02:52 Reddit's Upcoming IPO: A Deep Dive

03:25 Exploring Reddit's Niche and Financials

06:04 The Cultural Impact and Controversies of Reddit

08:58 Reddit IPO Strategies and User Dynamics

10:43 Inside Reddit: Culture, Compliance, and Future Prospects

16:00 Part Two

16:00 South by Southwest Festival Insights

20:04 Back to Reddit: IPO Details and Expectations

21:22 Technical Difficulties and Starting Off

21:24 Exploring Down Rounds: A Deep Dive

23:48 The Reality of Valuations and Market Corrections

24:42 Tech Companies' Valuations Post-Pandemic

25:41 Reddit's Revenue Diversification and Data Deals

27:15 The Creator Economy: Expectations vs. Reality

29:48 Reddit's IPO: A Case Study in Market Dynamics

34:49 Smoke Signals for Future IPOs

38:21 Reflecting on Reddit and the IPO Landscape

40:20 Credits

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