Thinking in Bets

Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

De: Annie Duke

Narrado por: Annie Duke

NATIONAL BESTSELLER • Poker champion turned business consultant Annie Duke teaches you how to get comfortable with uncertainty and make better decisions as a result in “the ultimate guide to thinking about risk” (Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit).

“A big favorite among investors these days.”—The New York Times

“Outstanding.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history: With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots' one-yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back. The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost. Critics called it the dumbest play in history. But was the call really that bad? Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck?

Even the best decision doesn't yield the best outcome every time. There's always an element of luck that you can't control, and there is always information that is hidden from view. So the key to long-term success (and avoiding worrying yourself to death) is to think in bets: How sure am I? What are the possible ways things could turn out? What decision has the highest odds of success? Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time? Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making?

Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and (of course) poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions. For most people, it's difficult to say "I'm not sure" in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty. But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don't always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don't always lead to bad outcomes.

By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don't, you'll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee-jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making. You'll become more confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run.

Reseñas de la Crítica

"A big favorite among investors these days." –The New York Times

"A compact guide to probabilistic domains like poker, or venture capital... Recommend for people operating in the real world." –Marc Andreessen

“Outstanding.” –Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal

"Duke’s discussion is full of wisdom and also of fun, warmth, humor and humanity. Her sharp, data-driven analysis comes with a large lesson, which is that losers should be willing to forgive themselves: Sometimes the right play just doesn’t work." –Cass Sunstein, co-author of Nudge

"An elegant fusion of poker-table street-smarts and cognitive science insights. This book will make you both a shrewder and wiser player in the game of life." –Philip E. Tetlock, author of Superforecasting

"Thinking in Bets offers a compelling, and eminently useful, new way to think about life's decisions. Annie Duke has written an important, and often hilarious, book that will help you understand your own shortcomings--and make smarter choices as a result. You can bet on it." –Maria Konnikova, author of The Confidence Game and Mastermind

"The insights Duke offers in this book are incredibly helpful when we contemplate decisions in the face of multiple possible outcomes, and that renders her book enormously applicable to the world of investing." –Howard Marks, co-chairman, Oaktree Capital Management and author of The Most Important Thing

"Through wonderful storytelling and sly wit, Annie Duke has crafted the ultimate guide to thinking about risk. We can all learn how to make better decisions by learning from someone who made choices for a living, with millions on the line." –Charles Duhigg, author of The Power of Habit and Smarter Faster Better

"Brilliant. Buy ten copies and give one to everyone you work with. It's that good." –Seth Godin, author of The Icarus Deception

"A mind-bending and indispensable book for entrepreneurs, leaders, and anyone who faces risk on a regular basis." –Olivia Fox Cabane, author of The Net and the Butterfly

“A highly-readable balance between memorable, real-world analogies and hardcore behavioral science studies... The book is packed with insights.” –John Greathouse, Forbes

A meeting that could have been an email

This is a really important and interesting book but it's unnecessarily long.

The concepts in this book would make an amazing ten-minute video or a really long blog post but as a book, it's stretching things out for the sake of it.

Great way to adjust your thinking

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

The book is easiest the best personal development book I've read in the last year. It gave me great new insights on how to view the world and frame situations differently.

Not many books have done that - I confess I tend to have my biases confirmed in most of my books. This one changed the way I viewed the world

Who was your favorite character and why?

I won't go character here, but I'll go with the reference - and it's the WKRP in Cincinnati Thanksgiving Turkey Giveaway

Which character – as performed by Annie Duke – was your favorite?

I'll go with herself. Her experiences were very informative.

If you were to make a film of this book, what would the tag line be?

"Poker > Chess"

Any additional comments?

Great introduction into probabilities in places where you don't think of probabilities.

interesting book on probability

A little too long drawn could've been a book half the size.

still a good listen.

Delightful and informative

An interesting and informative book shining light on life’s uncertainties and helping listeners to develop strategies for achieving better results. Annie is a top rate author and excellent narrator making this book an easy 5 Star.

A lot more to it

The book delivers on the bio given. it discusses in datail the pragmatic approach to looking at the unknown in terms of bets and probabilities. But what I also enjoyed perhaps even more was the value in the review of group problem solving and peer reviews. The author goes into how in building her poker skills she participated and then led peer review discussion on how hands were played. The groups discussed what was known, what wasn't and what could have been done. Anyone working in a group or a collaborative environment will easily see the parrallels. I found this portion very intriguing.