Fooled by Randomness

The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

De: Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Narrado por: Sean Pratt

Duración: 10 h y 3 m

Resumen del Editor

This audiobook is about luck, or more precisely, how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. It is already a landmark work and its title has entered our vocabulary. In its second edition, Fooled by Randomness is now a cornerstone for anyone interested in random outcomes.

Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill, the world of trading, this audiobook is a captivating insight into one of the least understood factors of all our lives. In an entertaining narrative style, the author succeeds in tackling three major intellectual issues: the problem of induction, the survivorship biases, and our genetic unfitness to the modern word. Taleb uses stories and anecdotes to illustrate our overestimation of causality and the heuristics that make us view the world as far more explainable than it actually is.

The audiobook is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: Yogi Berra, the baseball legend; Karl Popper, the philosopher of knowledge; Solon, the ancient world's wisest man; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Ulysses. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life, but who also falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

But the most recognizable character remains unnamed, the lucky fool in the right place at the right time - the embodiment of the "Survival of the Least Fit". Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru's insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained through chance.

It may be impossible to guard against the vagaries of the Goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

©2004 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2008 Gildan Media Corp

Reseñas de la Crítica

"[Taleb is] Wall Street's principal dissident....[ Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther's ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church." (Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker)
"An articulate, wise, and humorous meditation on the nature of success and failure that anyone who wants a little more of the former would do well to consider." (Amazon.com)

very entertaining and eye opening

Would you recommend this audiobook to a friend? If so, why?

This is not only entertaining, but enlightening because it illustrates with easily understandable examples, how randomness affects all of us whether we realize it or not. By applying the principles to our own lives, we may be able to understand our behavior and behavior of others better while giving us an advantage over others who do not understand these things. The author is clever in using illustrations to depict some complex statistical ideas and he does so in a very practical and understandable way that even non-math people can understand.
This is not a dry mathematical book but a very enjoyable read/listen. I kept coming back to it again and again just like any good book that keeps you going until it is finished. I enjoyed The Black Swan and this book is no disappointment - definitely recommend.

If you could give Fooled by Randomness a new subtitle, what would it be?

Things you might not realize were randomness and how you deal with it in your life.

Good Intro to The Black Swan

Get this one. Listen to it, then go immediately to The Black Swan. An excellent thesis that one need only look at history to validate.

arrogance / science / insight

? does the noisy clutter of modern life fool and overwhelm you
? is it hard to sort out cause and effect and true meaning
? does it seem, you just can't connect the dots the way you'd like to

nassim taleb (NT) has written an arrogant and insightful book for you
he elegantly teases out the increasing role of randomness in our lives
but his smug style, makes the truth of his message a bit hard to swallow

most human beings aren't hard wired for dispassionate observation
we bring with us prejudices, fears, doubts and a healthy dose of ignorance
it's hard for us to tell the difference between "co-incident" and "caused"

NT repeatedly relates the story of his many successes on wall street
his ability to not "be fooled" has made him a gifted stock picker
but making rich men richer wasn't enough for him, so he wrote this book

the cognitive strain of insightful thinking may simply be beyond some people
they're content to take what they're given and not sift it out too much
but if you'd like to see through the BS, clutter and noise NT would like to help

Very Good but not for everyone

Would you say that listening to this book was time well-spent? Why or why not?

Yes

Would you ever listen to anything by Nassim Nicholas Taleb again?

Yes

What three words best describe Sean Pratt’s voice?

clear, easy to understand

Who do you think would benefit most from listening to Fooled by Randomness?

Almost anyone but only if the title intreags you

Any additional comments?

Taleb's style is a bit off the wall, I liked it but it is not for everyone

interesting book as an introduction biases.

The material was interesting, though thinking fast and thinking slow and the signal and the noise covered the same topics better.
The pacing of the reader was poor with random gaps throughout leading me to check if my headphones had gotten disconnected several times.

Great book, problems with the audio

This is a really well written book and the narration is clear. However there are big gaps of silence between chapters and sections. It's not you or your app, it is the recording.

Deep Thoughts with a Light Touch

One of the areas of study that I find most fascinating is seeking to understand cognitive biases. This book addresses many of these human blind spots. It has great rigor, and breadth as well as depth. But a self-deprecating sense of humor accompanies the journey, and the travel is fun as well as enlightening.
I especially enjoyed the author's expert treatment of social science concepts in a business context. Heartily Recommended.

Genius

One of the most mind expanding books I ever read on risks, randomness and stoicism..

smarty pants

nassim is obviously confident, which helps when focusing on this potentially unpopular idea. while sometimes he losses me with his comments about reading medical journals for fun, it is important to appreciate his deep belief in randomness. as such, I am willing to let go of some of my own deep seated beliefs in causality

Changes your perspective

Essential book on how to think and understand success, focusing on the quality of our decisions instead of in few outcomes.