Superforecasting

The Art and Science of Prediction

De: Philip Tetlock, Dan Gardner

Narrado por: Joel Richards

Duración: 9 h y 45 m

Resumen del Editor

From one of the world's most highly regarded social scientists, a transformative book on the habits of mind that lead to the best predictions.

Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week's meals. Unfortunately people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts' predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?

In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people - including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer - who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They've beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They've even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters".

In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future - whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life - and is destined to become a modern classic.

Download the accompanying reference guide.

©2015 Philip Tetlock Consulting, Inc., and Connaught Street, Inc. (P)2015 Audible, Inc.

Not totally pointless

I recently enrolled in a sports prediction ring with some friends and I chose this book because I wanted to see if it might give me some insights into the art/science of prediction in general. Clearly the focus of this book is not sport at all, but I thought there must be some generalizable, transferable aspects – and there are. But on the whole I’d say the book mainly matched my existing perceptions of how to predict the future, although I did pick up a few nice nuggets along the way and there was some value in the book’s confirmation of some things I felt already knew.

The author states that there is no such thing as fate and that everything is the result of happenstance and probability. For example, I know that my being born was the random product of the circumstances of my parents’ meeting, the fact that none of their parents were killed in World War 2, the arbitrary time and place where I was conceived and the incredible odds against me winning a sperm race. I've never believed that life is predetermined by fate or destiny. So this was not news to me at all.

So how do you make good predictions? A few things help: It helps to be numerate, to diligently study the subject matter in question, to update your predictions as circumstances change, to keep an open mind.

There were a few things I hadn’t realised, such as the fact that lay people predict the future just as well, if not better, than experts - as long as they do the necessary research – and also, that groups fare better than individuals. There is a kind of ‘emergent property’ of groups whereby the totality is greater than the sum of the parts, as long as the group members interact cooperatively.

Overall I’d say that this book is worth the read, but I predict with 73% certainty that I’ll have forgotten it in 6 months’ time.

Very interesting book with great narration.

This was a very interesting research with deep insights in a number of areas around how to perceive the world differently. The narration was clear and easily understandable. Highly recommended read.

Expansive on the topic

I have judged myself as a weak forecaster for years. In my line of work too many fumbles can be career limiting but what to do with an obstical in your blind spot? This book was very helpful because I got to see my woldview on this was too narrow. Forecasting can, and should, be a whole life skill.

On the downside, I really needed more handholding with each element for each tool in order for the ah-ha moments to arrive. The obvious solution is to roll up my sleeves and get to work anyway.

Balanced, smart and fair

Read Kahneman and Taleb before reading this book. But then enjoy this fantastic book and all it's wisdom!

Top 5 of the best books I ever read.

Interesting Analysis

This is a really interesting book that compiles the author's research on the ability of people--many ordinary people--to become "super forecasters." The qualities of super forecasters turn out to be far from good intuition, but more the result of hard work, diligence, and, most importantly, a constant and dogged willingness to re-assess. This book should be required reading for anyone whose job involves forecasting, whether business, the economy or foreign affairs.

I did not give the book 5 stars for two reasons. First, it plods along in a few places. It could have used some pruning. Second, the authors' political leanings tend to show at some places, and I found that inappropriate for the subject.

All in all, though, an important work.

Must read

This is a must read for anyone in the business of prediction, and I would argue that we all are.

I suggest taking notes

This book manages to almost accidentally sum up a lot of key concepts from much harder and more difficult books (such as Thinking Fast and Slow). I'll be reading this one again.

Superinformative

One of the more informative books I've read in a long time. Provides a lot of supporting information about conclusions reached, including some math & statistics (but presented in a way that is easy to understand). Good narration.

The audiobook loses points.

The audiobook loses points because there are charts and graphs that you're not able to see. The physical book would be a better choice. other than that it's five stars all the way!

Interesting but boring

This book had interesting points, but the focus was too heavily on politics that some of the key messages were lost. It would have been nice to have more examples that were not so focused on politics.