The Avoidable War

The Dangers of a Catastrophic Conflict between the US and Xi Jinping's China

By: Kevin Rudd

Narrated by: Kevin Rudd, Rafe Beckley

A war between China and the US would be catastrophic, deadly, and destructive. Unfortunately, it is no longer unthinkable.

The relationship between the US and China, the world’s two superpowers, is peculiarly volatile. It rests on a seismic fault—of cultural misunderstanding, historical grievance, and ideological incompatibility. No other nations are so quick to offend and be offended. Their militaries play a dangerous game of chicken, corporations steal intellectual property, intelligence satellites peer, and AI technicians plot. The capacity for either country to cross a fatal line grows daily.

Kevin Rudd, a former Australian prime minister who has studied, lived in, and worked with China for more than forty years, is one of the very few people who can offer real insight into the mindsets of the leadership whose judgment will determine if a war will be fought. The Avoidable War demystifies the actions of both sides, explaining and translating them for the benefit of the other. Geopolitical disaster is still avoidable, but only if these two giants can find a way to coexist without betraying their core interests through what Rudd calls “managed strategic competition.” Should they fail, down that path lies the possibility of a war that could rewrite the future of both countries, and the world.

Critic reviews

“A lifelong student of China, Kevin Rudd has become one of today’s most thoughtful analysts of China’s development. The Avoidable War focuses on the signal challenge posed by China’s evolution to America and to world order. Can the US and China avoid sleepwalking into a conflict? Rudd offers constructive steps for the two powers to stabilize their relations.”—Henry A. Kissinger

“Wise counsel from a seasoned statesman who recognizes the real risk of catastrophic war and illuminates a promising path the US and China could take to avoid it.”—Graham Allison, Douglas Dillon Professor of Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and author of Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap?

“An extraordinary tour de force that analyzes the most important geopolitical relationship of the twenty-first-century. Organized, like Dante’s Inferno, into concentric circles that describe in brilliant detail the challenges ahead and a timely prescription to avoid a catastrophe. Let us truly hope that we can indeed avoid a war that looms upon us like a dark tower, threatening all the progress we have made.”—Admiral James Stavridis, 16th supreme Allied Commander of NATO, former dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University

“Based on a lifetime of observation and experience of China and America, Kevin Rudd has produced a rare book of wisdom and a detailed roadmap for how the two countries can manage their strategic competition and avoid a disastrous war.”—Joseph S. Nye, Harvard University Distinguished Service Professor, Emeritus

“An exploration of one of the world’s most significant and fraught international relationships… An accessible primer on the evolving China–U.S. rivalry.”—Kirkus

Insightful and important

Kevin Rudd’s book, is a brilliant explanation of the world’s current situation about the tensions between China and the West. Kevin begins with a deep historical explanation about how we reached the edge of our diplomatic bubbles (from both sides). He then delves into the actors, their personalities, motives and incentives from a senior diplomatic POV (Xi, Trump etc...). Finally, Kevin leaves us with diplomatic solutions for avoiding a possible disaster we have grown to believe to be inevitable. One of the best books on the subject and the more people read it the better.

Authoritative and Prescient

Kevin Rudd pulls on decades of experience to provide a detailed overview of what leads us to this point with China and where he sees the world going as a result. Mandatory reading!

By far the best book on China

You may not agree with the 10 concentric circle framework, personally I think it helps the structure of the book more than the analysis itself, but the content is first rate. As a Chinese reasonably literate in domestic politics, I am impressed by Mr. Rudd’s insights. Highly recommended if you want to improve your odds in getting the next decade right.

Strongly recommend

This was an excellent explanation of the struggle between China and US. Kevin Rudd has written a book both informative and insightful.

A Subtle, Focused Book

Not everyone will want to read a book like this; it’s not classic beach read material. But if you were in any way considering reading this book, you should read it.

It was published before the war in Ukraine and the most recent cracks in China’s zero COVID policy. To that extent, it may be a half beat behind recent trends in US-Taiwan rhetoric/policy, the weakening of Russian international posture, and shifts in both the unity and posture of the European Union and NATO. Still, this sober, scary, nuanced, and hopeful book is about as comprehensive and up to date as one could ask for.