Radical Uncertainty
Decision-Making Beyond the Numbers
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Radical Uncertainty
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Narrated by:
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Roger Davis
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By:
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John Kay
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Mervyn King
About this listen
In a changing world, forecasts and numbers usually represent bogus quantification. Kay and King tell us how to think smarter.
Radical uncertainty changes the way we should think about decision-making. For over half a century economics has assumed that people behave rationally by optimizing among well-defined choices. Behavioral economics questioned how far people are rational, pointing to the cognitive biases that seem to describe actual behavior.
Radical Uncertainty is a bold, paradigm-shifting book that takes us past standard and behavioral economics, completely shifting our understanding of the role economics can play in decision-making. We can never have the information required to optimize. But the failure to come to terms with this reality has led us to build our largest financial organizations, develop major policy decisions, and create business structures on shifting sands - the false belief that the numbers provided by economic models give us the answer. They don't. The best managers in the public and private sectors rely on narratives, not numbers.
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Story4 out of 5 stars 94
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- By Anonymous User on 01-23-19
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- By: Shane Parrish
- Narrated by: Shane Parrish
- Length: 3 hrs and 23 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,640
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 1,363
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,344
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- By Anonymous User on 04-14-19
By: Shane Parrish
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Why Trust Science?
- The University Center for Human Values, Book 1
- By: Naomi Oreskes
- Narrated by: John Chancer, Kelly Burke, Kerry Shale, and others
- Length: 8 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 81
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 70
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 70
Do doctors really know what they are talking about when they tell us vaccines are safe? Should we take climate experts at their word when they warn us about the perils of global warming? Why should we trust science when our own politicians don't? In this landmark book, Naomi Oreskes offers a bold and compelling defense of science, revealing why the social character of scientific knowledge is its greatest strength - and the greatest reason we can trust it.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Perfect Production of an Excellent Work
- By Anonymous User on 01-15-20
By: Naomi Oreskes
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Money
- The Unauthorized Biography
- By: Felix Martin
- Narrated by: Nicholas Guy Smith
- Length: 12 hrs and 37 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 130
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 114
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 112
From ancient currency to Adam Smith, from the gold standard to shadow banking and the Great Recession: a sweeping historical epic that traces the development and evolution of one of humankind’s greatest inventions.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Difficult to imagine how it could be worse
- By Anonymous User on 09-19-17
By: Felix Martin
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Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- By: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrated by: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Length: 13 hrs and 28 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,416
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,153
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,142
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing
- By Anonymous User on 05-31-21
By: Daniel Kahneman, and others
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Adam Smith
- Father of Economics
- By: Jesse Norman
- Narrated by: Jesse Norman
- Length: 13 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 55
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 48
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 48
A dazzlingly original account of the life and thought of Adam Smith, the greatest economist of all time. In Adam Smith, political philosopher Jesse Norman dispels the myths and caricatures, and provides a far more complex portrait of the man. Offering a highly engaging account of Smith's life and times, Norman explores his work as a whole and traces his influence over two centuries to the present day. Finally, he shows how a proper understanding of Smith can help us address the problems of modern capitalism.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Most excellent book!
- By Anonymous User on 03-02-19
By: Jesse Norman
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Narrative Economics
- How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events
- By: Robert J. Shiller
- Narrated by: Susan Osman, Robert J. Shiller - introduction
- Length: 11 hrs and 7 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 450
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 359
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Story4 out of 5 stars 357
Spread through the public in the form of popular stories, ideas can go viral and move markets - whether it's the belief that tech stocks can only go up or that housing prices never fall. Whether true or false, stories like these - transmitted by word of mouth, by the news media, and increasingly by social media - drive the economy by driving our decisions about how and where to invest, how much to spend and save, and more. But despite the obvious importance of such stories, most economists have paid little attention to them. Narrative Economics sets out to change that.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Such boring narration (returned)
- By Anonymous User on 10-08-19
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The Great Degeneration
- How Institutions Decay and Economies Die
- By: Niall Ferguson
- Narrated by: Paul Slack
- Length: 4 hrs and 18 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 308
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 261
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 260
Best-selling author and world-renowned historian Niall Ferguson has won widespread acclaim for thought-provoking works such as Civilization and High Financier. The Great Degeneration tackles nothing less than the decline of Western civilization. Ferguson posits that slowing growth, outrageous debt, and antisocial behavior are contributing to the erosion of the West’s once rock-solid foundations. Ferguson excavates the causes and shows how heroic leadership and radical reform are needed to right the course.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Superb as always!
- By Anonymous User on 08-28-17
By: Niall Ferguson
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Economics for the Common Good
- By: Jean Tirole, Steven Rendell - translator
- Narrated by: Jonathan Davis
- Length: 18 hrs and 54 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 56
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 44
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 42
When Jean Tirole won the 2014 Nobel Prize in Economics, he suddenly found himself being stopped in the street by complete strangers and asked to comment on issues of the day, no matter how distant from his own areas of research. His transformation from academic economist to public intellectual prompted him to reflect further on the role economists and their discipline play in society. The result is Economics for the Common Good, a passionate manifesto for a world in which economics, far from being a "dismal science," is a positive force for the common good.
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4 out of 5 stars
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A Great Overview of the Challenges of Modern Econ
- By Anonymous User on 08-06-18
By: Jean Tirole, and others
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- By: Justin Fox
- Narrated by: Alan Sklar
- Length: 13 hrs and 38 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4 out of 5 stars 192
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 117
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 121
Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Probably most interesting to economists
- By Anonymous User on 06-29-12
By: Justin Fox
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- By: Tim Harford
- Narrated by: Jonathan Keeble
- Length: 9 hrs and 53 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4 out of 5 stars 277
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 223
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Story4 out of 5 stars 222
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- By Anonymous User on 05-20-13
By: Tim Harford
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Average is Over
- Powering America Beyond the Age of the Great Stagnation
- By: Tyler Cowen
- Narrated by: Andrew Garman
- Length: 8 hrs and 42 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall4 out of 5 stars 382
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Performance4 out of 5 stars 311
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Story4 out of 5 stars 308
The widening gap between rich and poor means dealing with one big, uncomfortable truth: If you're not at the top, you're at the bottom. The global labor market is changing radically thanks to growth at the high end and the low. About three quarters of the jobs created in the United States since the great recession pay only a bit more than minimum wage. Still, the United States has more millionaires and billionaires than any country ever, and we continue to mint them.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing analysis of future
- By Anonymous User on 12-10-13
By: Tyler Cowen
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Charlie Munger
- The Complete Investor
- By: Tren Griffin
- Narrated by: Fred Stella
- Length: 6 hrs and 21 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4.5 out of 5 stars 1,706
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 1,396
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Story4.5 out of 5 stars 1,396
Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of "elementary, worldly wisdom" - a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management - allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good, but... one major annoyance
- By Anonymous User on 02-26-16
By: Tren Griffin
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The Halo Effect
- ...and the 8 Other Business Delusions That Deceive Managers
- By: Phil Rosenzweig
- Narrated by: Jim Manchester
- Length: 6 hrs and 57 mins
- Unabridged
-
Overall4 out of 5 stars 276
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Performance4.5 out of 5 stars 210
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Story4 out of 5 stars 215
Much of our business thinking is shaped by delusions that distort our understanding of the real reasons for a company's performance. The most pervasive delusion is the Halo Effect. When a company's sales and profits are up, people often conclude that it has a brilliant strategy, a visionary leader, capable employees, and a superb corporate culture. When performance falters, they conclude the opposite. In fact, little may have changed.
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5 out of 5 stars
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slow start
- By Anonymous User on 01-03-10
By: Phil Rosenzweig
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5 out of 5 stars
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Two books in one, both very fine
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Overall5 out of 5 stars 53
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