09.16.2024 "Wooden Ships" Calm Seas, Prepare for Unexpected

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Wooden Ships above the oil, barely free. Easy, Bonds know the way it’s supposed to be.

Gold rose sharply above 2600, an all-time high, in fear of a broader war. The US and NATO signaled they will arm Ukraine with long-range missiles. Putin said such action means the US and NATO would be directly at war with Russia. The Biden/Harris administration tossed a word salad to walk it back.

Despite wild Gold trading, Oil, US Bucks, and Bonds moved calmly. But heed Gold’s warning, expect the unexpected through the end of the year with frequent daily mortgage rate moves of over 20 bps.

BRICS are leaving. BUCKS don’t meet their needs.

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Song: Wooden Ships (1969) Crosby, Stills, Nash, and Young

The Lykken on Lending program will feature our Weekly Mortgage Updates with Adam DeSanctis and his MBA Mortgage Minute, and then Les Parker’s TMSpotlight, a macroeconomic perspective on the economy with a music parody. That leads to Matt Graham of MBS Live providing you a rate & market update, followed by David Kittle, Chief Executive Officer @ Cypress Mortgage Capital, to discuss mortgage originations. Then we have Alice Alvey of Union Home providing a regulatory & legislative update, then Allen Pollack giving us a Tech Report on the latest technology impacting our industry. We also have commentaries provided by our Consultants, Bill Corbet and Marc Helm, Senior Executive Partner @ Transformational Mortgage Solutions, talking about Loan Servicing and the “Agencies”.

09-09-2024 Jobs are the "Rock Brigade"

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Jobs are bangin' on their drums, bangin' on Bonds’ door, wavin' their flags, tellin' Bonds to score. Watch out for the Rock Brigade.

On the eve of Fed easing, inversion ended between the 10-year and 2-year Treasury Notes as Job weakness gained momentum. Flash indicators across the globe showed economic sluggishness, with China leading the way.

Since January 2023, mortgage rates have reached their lowest level, but more labor data weakness is needed to drop further. With the 10-year yield revisiting 3.67, look to see 3.48 while lagging the short end. Regardless, look for our target of sub-6% by the end of the year, which is only 28 BPS away.

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Song: Rock Brigade (1980) Def Leppard

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NRYSlLLU0RE