In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard speaks with Crisis Group experts Mairav Zonszein, Heiko Wimmen and Michael Hanna about the intensified Israeli strikes on Hizbollah militants in Lebanon and whether both sides can still step back from the brink of all-out war. They unpack calculations on both sides, why Israel has ramped up attacks recently and why Hizbollah hasn’t yet responded more forcefully. They discuss what an escalation into a full-scale war would mean for both countries and the region. They also assess Washington’s role as the U.S. heads toward presidential elections, its failed efforts to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and whether it can prevent a wider escalation absent one.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode read our recent conflict alert The U.S. Should Prevent All-out Israeli-Hizbollah War, and our Middle East & North Africa region page.

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In the first episode of Hold Your Fire’s new season, Richard Atwood is joined by Richard Gowan, Crisis Group’s UN director, to speak about the UN General Assembly high-level week and the UN’s global role. They look at how the UN has responded to the Gaza war and conflict’s impact on politics and debates at the UN. They talk about the UN’s efforts in other conflicts, including Ukraine, Sudan and Haiti, and challenges UN peacekeepers and envoys face elsewhere. They also discuss efforts to reform UN institutions and strengthen multilateral diplomacy and the potential implications of the U.S. elections, particularly if former President Donald Trump prevails, for the world body.

For more on the topics discussed in this episode check out our briefing Ten Challenges for the UN in 2024-2025, and our Updates from the UN General Assembly 2024.

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In this episode of Hold Your Fire!, Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Israel expert Mairav Zonszein, Israel-Palestine director Rami Dajani and U.S. program director Michael Hanna to talk about the latest from Gaza, prospects for a ceasefire and the risks of all-out war between Israel and Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. They discuss how the violence in Gaza has evolved and the recent Israeli strike aimed at killing a top Hamas commander that, according to the local authorities, killed scores of civilians in a designated safe zone. They talk about ceasefire negotiations, whether the two sides have softened their positions on the main stumbling blocks – Hamas’s rejecton of a short-term ceasefire entailing the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners without guarantees that such a truce would lead to a permanent end to hostilities; and Israel’s refusal to agree to end the war without further degrading Hamas – and what governance in Gaza looks like absent a deal. They also cover the risk of a full-scale war between Israel and Hizbollah.

For more, check out our statement A Gaza Ceasefire and our Israel/Palestine country page.

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