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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.

🌾 Soybean Market Drop
Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉

🇨🇳 China Trade Update
COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.

⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.

🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress
Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor
Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.

Corn: 30%
Soybeans: 32%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 17%
Cattle: 26%

💼 Jobs & Markets

Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

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Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇

🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.

💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.

🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.

🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.

🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.

🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

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💰 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.
This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.
Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.

🏭 ADM Outlook Cut
ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.
CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.
ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.

💵 King Dollar Flexes
Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.

🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.
Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.
58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.
Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.
📊 Barometer graphics below.

🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed
Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.
Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.

📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates
S&P holding steady:
🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu
🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu

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🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle

China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.
Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.
US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.
The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀

🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot
US soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬
China is still absent.
Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.
Wheat is also stronger YoY.

🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again

China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.
Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.
Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.

🌱 Brazil Planting Lags

Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.
Some replant risk.
StoneX tweaks the outlook:
• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt
• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt

🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped

Analysts peg harvest at:
• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)
• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)
Dry weather helped.
Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.

📊 StoneX US Yield Update

• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump
• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmed
US production is essentially steady vs last month.

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🎙️ Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff! 🌾
This week we sit down with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins for a big-time conversation on the future of American agriculture and global trade. Strap in—this one hits all the hot topics 👇

🇨🇳 US/China “Trade Deal” & Soybean Purchases
What does the new agreement really mean for US farmers?
Will China step up for big-volume soybean buys again — or is the market over-hyping it? 🌱🚢

🌟 “Golden Era of Agriculture”?
President Trump says US agriculture is entering a Golden Era — Brooke breaks down what that means for:
Farm income
Global demand
Export competitiveness
Long-term policy vision
Is it optimism… or reality coming fast? 💪🌽✨

💸 Direct Farm Payments & Input Costs
We talk:
Future support programs
Input inflation pressures (seed, fertilizer, fuel)
Policy responses to farm margins getting squeezed

🇲🇽 Border, Beef & Feeder Cattle
How does the southern border tie into livestock markets? And what’s the real story on:
Mexican border flows
Feeder cattle prices
Beef import potential
U.S. herd rebuilding timeline 🐂📈

🏢 USDA Workforce Cuts
Yep—layoffs. Why the shake-up, and what farmers should expect going forward.

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✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳

🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐

China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:
12mmt through January
25mmt annually for 3 years
Removal of tariffs on most US ag goods
This is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.
Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.

ASA reaction:
✅ Positive tone
✅ Relief after stalled demand
✅ Optimism for future growth

Also—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.

Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇
Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/bu

Corn slipped lower
Dec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30
No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwinds

Wheat lower
Dec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24

📝 Key Takeaway

This deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.
Markets like it. Farmers like it.
And it beats the alternative. ✔️

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions
US drought conditions were mostly steady this week.
Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.
High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.
Corn impacted by drought: 30%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter wheat: 40%
Cattle areas in drought: 26%

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🌦️ Macro & Policy
President Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.
Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂
Policy headline? ✅
Actual commitments? 🤷‍♂️

🌾 Grains & China Buying
COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.
Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayer
Futures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lower
Until we see more sales, the market remains cautious.

🐄 Cattle & Border News
U.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.
$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly program
No timeline for reopening
Cattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.

⛽ Ethanol Update
Ethanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.
Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
Rabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.
Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.
Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱

💵 Interest Rates & Macro
The Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.
Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.
Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).
The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃

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🇨🇳 China Buys U.S. Soybeans for the First Time This Marketing Year

🌦 Market Highlights
China has purchased U.S. soybeans for the first time this marketing year. Reuters reports that state-owned COFCO bought three cargoes (≈180,000 mt / 6.6 mil bu) for Dec–Jan shipment ahead of the Trump–Xi meeting in South Korea. U.S. beans remain about 50¢/bu cheaper than Brazilian beans for November export.

🌾 Futures Action
Soybean futures hit their highest level in over a year Tuesday. The Jan 26 contract reached $11.00 before easing to around $10.95 on profit-taking and increased farmer selling. Corn and wheat also advanced—Dec 25 corn closed near $4.32/bu, its best since early July.

🏛 Washington Watch
The U.S. Senate Judiciary Committee held a hearing on seed and fertilizer market concentration. Four companies now control 80% of corn seed and 75% of soybean seed sales. The American Soybean Association warned that farmers face mounting pressure as production costs surge and prices fall—soybean producers could see net losses of $109/acre this year.

🤝 Global Trade & Policy
The U.S. and Japan signed two agreements Tuesday—one strengthening the alliance, another on rare-earth supply chains. Despite the fanfare, key trade gaps remain. Japan already imports roughly $12 billion in U.S. ag products annually, including corn, beef, pork, and soybeans, suggesting its new $8 billion annual commitment likely reflects normal volumes.

🐄 Livestock Pressure
Feeder cattle futures fell sharply again as President Trump vowed to lower beef prices. Since his Argentine beef import proposal, feeder cattle have dropped nearly $50/cwt amid speculation of resumed Mexican imports and tariff cuts on Brazilian beef.

🌽 Ethanol & Energy
India continues to block U.S. ethanol imports despite U.S. pressure in ongoing trade talks. India blends about 2.6 billion gal/year of ethanol domestically and protects its farmers’ $13 billion in feedstock income—making ethanol policy a major sticking point.