"Don't Call it a Trade Deal" - Soybean Prices Fall Following Trump/Xi "Truce"

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🌦️ Macro & Policy
President Trump says talks with Xi were “12 out of 10” and announced tariff cuts tied to fentanyl cooperation. China says they reached consensus on fentanyl and agricultural trade, but no actual volume numbers yet.
Trump jumped on Truth Social claiming China will buy “massive amounts” of U.S. farm goods — and even told farmers to go buy more land and bigger tractors 🚜😂
Policy headline? ✅
Actual commitments? 🤷‍♂️

🌾 Grains & China Buying
COFCO reportedly bought three cargoes of U.S. soybeans, but markets barely moved. Traders want to see follow-through, not headlines.
Soybean bulls: 🤝 Hope & prayer
Futures: 🥱 Neutral to slightly lower
Until we see more sales, the market remains cautious.

🐄 Cattle & Border News
U.S.–Mexico border stays closed to feeder cattle as officials work to eradicate the screwworm outbreak.
$21M U.S. investment in sterile fly program
No timeline for reopening
Cattle futures liked the news — big rally Wednesday.

⛽ Ethanol Update
Ethanol output dipped slightly on the week but remains strong vs last year, with margins running 10–40¢ positive across the Corn Belt. Stocks rose slightly.
Margins holding firm = supportive for corn demand.

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Outlook
Rabobank expects a record Brazilian soybean crush and higher acreage, but stable exports.
Corn acreage is up too—but production is seen down ~3.5%.
Brazil keeps expanding. No surprise 😬🌎🌱

💵 Interest Rates & Macro
The Fed cut rates again—the second time this year—taking the benchmark to 3.75%–4%.
Powell pushing back on a “cut every meeting” approach.
Markets now see a 67% chance of another cut in December (down from ~90%).
The government shutdown still limiting data flow—fun times 🙃