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Grain Markets and Other Stuff

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

De: Joe Vaclavik
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Joe Vaclavik and Mackenzie Johnston discuss the grain markets, the business of farming, news related to agriculture, and a variety of other topics.

© 2025 Grain Markets and Other Stuff
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Episodios
  • Corn Reverses to the Upside: Possible Targets??
    Jul 15 2025

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    Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

    0:00 Corn Reversal
    2:31 Corn/Soybean Ratings are Strong
    6:06 More Corn Belt Rain
    8:57 Brazil Corn Update
    10:30 Grain Shipments
    11:27 Bitcoin

    🌽 Corn Pops Higher!
    Corn futures posted an upside reversal on Monday! 📈 The Dec25 contract hit new life-of-contract lows before rallying nearly 6 cents. Short covering and bargain buying helped lift the market—but gains were limited by favorable weather and expectations for a record-large crop. Traders remain cautious as President Trump steps up tariff threats.

    🌱 Crop Conditions Remain Strong 💪
    ✅ US corn: 74% good-to-excellent—best for the week since 2016!
    ✅ US soybeans: 70% good-to-excellent—also second best in a decade!
    Only 5% of each crop is rated poor to very poor. That’s bullish for yield potential!

    🌾 Wheat Update 🚜
    🌱 Spring wheat: 54% good-to-excellent (up from 50% last week).
    🧊 Winter wheat harvest: 63% complete, still running slightly behind average and much slower than last year.

    🌧️ Rain Returns + Heat on Deck ☀️
    The Corn Belt is wet again this week with widespread rainfall expected in the 5-day and 5-10 day windows. 🌦️
    ⚠️ But look out! CropProphet says the 8–14 day outlook shows temps averaging +4.3°F above normal.
    🔥 Heat could return as a key market factor.

    🇧🇷 Brazil’s Harvest Lagging 🐢
    Brazil’s second-crop corn harvest is just 40% complete—way behind last year’s 74% pace. Despite delays, both USDA and Conab still forecast a record-large 132mmt crop.
    📉 Largest weekly harvest gain so far this season—but still playing catch-up.

    🚢 Exports Sluggish 📦
    👀 Corn: 1.3mmt inspected last week (down 18% WoW).
    🥜 Soybeans: Weak at just 147,045mt (down 63% WoW).
    🌾 Wheat: Better, near top end of expectations at 439,533mt.

    ₿ Bitcoin Blasts Higher! 🚀
    Bitcoin surged 3.4% on Monday to hit a new all-time high of $123,205 💰 before cooling off.
    🧠 "Crypto Week" is here—Congress debates 3 major crypto bills.
    💸 $2.7B flowed into Bitcoin ETFs last week—fifth-best inflow on record.
    📈 Year-to-date: +30%. After doubling in 2024, BTC is still running hot.

    👇 Hit that like button, leave a comment with your market thoughts, and don’t forget to subscribe for daily updates! 🔔
    #Corn #Soybeans #Wheat #Bitcoin #GrainMarkets #Crypto #Weather #Farming #Commodities #Agriculture 🌽🧑‍🌾📊

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    14 m
  • Too Much Rain in July?? Is That Even Possible?? (Corn Crop)
    Jul 14 2025

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    Futures and options trading involves risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone.

    0:00 Too Much Rain??
    4:03 USDA Report
    8:15 Tariff News
    9:54 The Funds
    10:45 Flash Sale

    🎯 WEEKEND GRAIN WRAP-UP: Big Rains, Lower Stocks & New Tariffs! 🌽☔📉

    🔥 What a weekend! Here’s what’s moving the markets:

    🌧️ Weather Watch
    Substantial rainfall soaked much of the US Corn Belt this weekend!
    💦 Best totals: Iowa, Illinois, northeast Missouri & southern Wisconsin
    🌦️ Scattered rains: Eastern Corn Belt
    📅 Forecast: More rain over the next 5–10 days
    🌡️ Temps: Near-normal now, but above-normal coming in the 8–14 day outlook

    📉 USDA Report Recap
    Corn futures fell Friday… despite a friendly USDA update:
    📦 Ending stocks cut to 1.34B bu—lowest in 4 years!
    🚢 Record export forecast at 2.75B bu
    🌽 2025/26 corn production trimmed to 15.7B bu (still record high)
    🌱 Soybean crop adjusted to 4.34B bu
    📏 Yields? Still unchanged... but the market might be pricing in much higher yields already 🤔

    🇺🇸 Tariff Trouble
    President Trump is back with more tariffs:
    📆 Starting August 1: 30% tariff on goods from Mexico & EU
    ⚙️ Possible exemptions for companies that move manufacturing to the US
    ⚠️ Retaliation? Trump says any response tariffs will be added on top
    🌍 EU & Mexico = 1/3 of total US imports
    🇲🇽 Mexico = #1 buyer of US corn
    🇪🇺 The EU is the #2 buyer of US soybeans and #5 of US corn

    💰 Money Flow: Fund Activity
    🟢 Corn: Funds net buyers of 10k contracts (1st time in 6 weeks!)
    🔴 Soybeans: Net sellers of 7k
    🟢 SRW Wheat: Net buyers of 6k
    📊 Check out the Fund Tracker charts below!

    🫘 Flash Sale Alert!
    🇲🇽 Mexico booked 219,900mt (8M bu) of new crop soybeans for 2025/26
    📈 New crop soybean sales are already 4% ahead of USDA’s target!

    👇 Hit LIKE if you enjoy these updates, and don’t forget to SUBSCRIBE for more grain market insights!
    💬 Drop your thoughts in the comments—are we underestimating this corn yield?

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    12 m
  • Joe is a Coward, Rain in Northern Illinois
    Jul 11 2025

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    0:00 Non-Drought and Illinois Rain
    6:36 USDA Preview
    14:50 Export Sales
    17:42 CONAB
    20:21 USDA Secretary Mackenzie
    24:07 Flash Sale

    🌾 USDA Report Today
    USDA will release its monthly Crop Production & WASDE report at 11:00am CST.
    📉 July rarely brings yield changes, so traders will focus on demand.
    Corn export pace could lead to higher old-crop exports—but lower feed demand might offset it.
    🌍 Global balance sheet adjustments also likely.

    🌧️ Drought Monitor Update
    Rain helped drought in western Missouri, southwest Iowa & northern Minnesota.
    🌾 But conditions worsened in central/northern Illinois & Michigan.
    ⚠️ New drought concerns in western Ohio, southern Indiana & northern Kentucky.
    High Plains: Nebraska improved, but drought deepened in northeast North Dakota, central South Dakota, & western Kansas. US areas in drought:
    🌽 Corn 12% | 🌱 Soybeans 9% | 🌾 Winter Wheat 26% | 🌱 Spring Wheat 35% | 🐄 Cattle 16%

    📈 Export Sales Strong
    Corn sales surged to 1.3mmt (50mil bu), 70% above the 4-week average—Mexico led buying.
    Soybeans at 503,000mt (18mil bu), up 9% w/w; unknown destinations were top buyers.
    Wheat at 567,800mt (21mil bu), slightly down w/w but 37% above the 4-week average; South Korea led demand.

    🇧🇷 Brazil Corn Crop Record
    Conab forecasts corn at 132mmt—up 2.9% from last month & 14.3% higher than last season.
    🌽 Boost driven by a strong second crop (+16%).
    Corn exports raised to 36mmt (+6%).
    Slight cut to soybean forecast: now 169.5mmt, still up 14.7% vs last season.

    🐄 Feeder Cattle Imports Halted
    USDA suspended Mexican feeder cattle imports after a new screwworm case, just 370 miles south of the border.
    🇲🇽 Mexican President Sheinbaum called it an overreaction.
    Imports had resumed only Monday at an Arizona port after a May closure.
    YTD imports through April were 193,000 head, down ~60% from last year.

    🚢 Flash Corn Sale
    US exporters sold 110,000mt of corn to unknown destinations for 2025/26.
    🌽 New crop corn sales are off to a strong start—the third best since 2020/21.

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    26 m
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