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🌱 Welcome back to Grain Markets & Other Stuff!
Today’s update dives into a sharp selloff in soybeans, trade developments with China, and a closer look at shifting global dynamics affecting U.S. ag markets.

🌾 Soybean Market Drop
Soybean futures plunged Thursday, with the Jan26 contract down nearly 27¢ to around $11.08/bu. The slide followed China’s limited U.S. soybean purchases, despite last week’s trade truce. China suspended certain retaliatory tariffs but kept a 13% duty on soybeans. Wheat also fell sharply, while corn saw modest losses. 📉

🇨🇳 China Trade Update
COFCO hosted a soybean procurement signing ceremony in Shanghai — but details remain vague. The U.S. claims China agreed to buy 12 MMT by January and 25 MMT annually thereafter, yet China hasn’t confirmed those volumes. Traders are growing skeptical after repeated “confirmations” without firm numbers.

⚖️ SCOTUS & Trump’s Tariffs
The Supreme Court is reviewing whether President Trump’s sweeping tariffs are constitutional. Justices questioned if the IEEPA law gives authority to impose tariffs — it doesn’t mention “tariff” or “duty.” A ruling against Trump could partially invalidate some tariffs, though he may pivot to the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 or the Trade Act of 1974.

🇦🇷 Argentina Crop Progress
Soybean planting in Argentina is off to a strong start 🌦️. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reports 4.4% planted (of 43 M acres) and projects a 48.5 MMT crop. Corn planting is 36% complete, with 58 MMT expected. Late frosts caused minor damage in southern areas.

🌧️ US Drought Monitor
Recent rains improved drought in KY, OH, and parts of IL, IN, and MO. Conditions worsened slightly in MN and IA.

Corn: 30%
Soybeans: 32%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 17%
Cattle: 26%

💼 Jobs & Markets

Private data showed 153,074 job cuts last month—triple Oct 2024’s figure. Tech and warehousing led the declines. The Nasdaq fell 1.9%, the S&P 500 –1.1%, and the Dow –0.8%. The 10-year yield slipped to 4.09%, and traders now price a greater 60% chance of a December Fed rate cut.
(⚠️ Note: These job numbers are private data; BLS data remains paused amid the government shutdown.)

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Welcome back! Here’s what’s moving the markets this week 👇

🌾 China Steps Back Into U.S. Grain Markets
Reuters reports China purchased two cargoes of U.S. wheat — one soft white and one spring wheat — plus at least one shipment of U.S. sorghum. Futures for SRW and HRW hit fresh 3-month highs on the news.

💼 Tariff Rollbacks from Beijing
China’s Finance Ministry says retaliatory tariffs (up to 15%) on U.S. ag products will be lifted November 10.
That includes corn, wheat, and sorghum, though U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tax, keeping them pricier than Brazilian supplies. Traders say major Chinese buyers are showing new interest in U.S. wheat.

🌽 Corn Harvest & Yields
Corn yields are mixed across the Corn Belt—strong in Minnesota and South Dakota but lower in Illinois and Iowa.
Wyffels Hybrids averaged 241 bpa across 724 plots (vs. 247 last year).
Many still expect near-record crops, but yield chatter is closer to 178–179 bpa, well below USDA’s 186.7 bpa.

🍶 Ethanol Sets a New Record
U.S. ethanol output hit 1.12 million barrels/day, the highest ever.
Stocks: 22.66 million barrels
Margins: +15 ¢ to +35 ¢ across the Corn Belt (Reuters data)
Strong corn grind and robust demand continue to support prices.

🌱 Brazil’s Fertilizer Gamble
Brazil Potash Corp. is investing $2.5 billion in an Amazon potash mine, aiming for self-sufficiency by 2030.
Currently 90% of fertilizer imports come from Russia — a huge risk.
Chinese investors are reportedly eyeing future supply deals tied to crop exports.

🐄 Cattle Market Meltdown
Cattle futures collapsed to limit-down levels Wednesday.
Despite Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins confirming the U.S.–Mexico border remains closed to feeder imports, her mention that Trump wants to reopen it added to panic.
Even with strong fundamentals — record-low cow herd, solid beef demand — government price-control talk has shattered trader confidence.

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💰 Farm Aid Update
The Trump administration still plans to deliver additional farm aid once the shutdown ends—reportedly up to $12B to offset trade-war impacts. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden says the final total could shift depending on the China-deal market response, but the aid won’t be replaced by the truce framework.
This program would look a lot like Trump's first-term MFP rollout.
Meanwhile, inflation remains a thorn in the side of producers. And betting markets think the shutdown wraps late next week.

🏭 ADM Outlook Cut
ADM just trimmed its 2025 profit outlook. Weak soybean crush, soft ethanol margins, and China trade uncertainty are dragging earnings.
CEO Juan Luciano says markets need clearer China trade policy + biofuel rules—both delayed by the shutdown.
ADM's Q3 profit fell ~19%.

💵 King Dollar Flexes
Risk-off vibes Tuesday pushed the dollar higher—four-month highs vs. the euro. Markets are suddenly less confident in a December rate cut (65% vs. 94% last week). Stocks slipped, safe havens bid.

🌽🚜 Farmer Sentiment Rebounds
The Purdue/CME Ag Barometer up to 129 in October.
Livestock still outshines crops—cattle profits remain massive.
58% say tariffs will strengthen US ag, while uncertainty lingers for others.
Importantly, this data came before the US-China “trade truce” news.
📊 Barometer graphics below.

🐂 Mexican Cattle Border Still Closed
Sec. Brooke Rollins says not yet on reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle.
Screwworm containment is improving, but the USDA is still cautious—price pressure in beef is not part of the decision, per Rollins.

📏 S&P Global Crop Estimates
S&P holding steady:
🌽 Corn yield ~185.5 bpa, crop ~16.8B bu
🌱 Soybeans ~53 bpa, crop ~4.26B bu