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0:00 USDA and Corn Rally
6:10 The Funds
8:26 US/China Talks to Resume
9:39 USDA Reporting Problems
11:12 Rare Soybean Oil Sale

🌽 USDA Shakes Up Corn & Soybeans
US corn acreage is projected to be the largest since 1936. On Friday, USDA raised its estimate by 1.5% to 98.7 million acres. Despite a lower average yield projection of 186.7 bpa, the agency still forecasts a record 16.8 billion bushel corn crop. Ending stocks were trimmed slightly to 2.1 billion bushels but remain the highest since 2018/19.

For soybeans, yield was lowered to 53.5 bpa, but acreage revisions lifted production to 4.3 billion bushels. Exports were cut due to the ongoing US–China trade war, pushing ending stocks higher. If confirmed, USDA’s corn crop estimate would beat the previous record (2023) by a massive 9.6%.

📉 Funds Add to Shorts
CFTC’s weekly Commitment of Traders report showed money managers were net sellers:
Corn: -4k contracts
Soybeans: -25k contracts (largest net short since mid-August)
SRW Wheat: -10k contracts

🤝 US–China Trade Talks
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent meets with Vice Premier He Lifeng this week in Madrid. The talks aim to lay the groundwork for a deal: China purchases in exchange for tariff relief. This comes as the 90-day tariff truce nears expiration in early November. So far, China hasn’t bought a single bushel of US soybeans for the current marketing year.

🇨🇳 Export Sales Twist
Last week’s reported “sale” of 2 million bushels of soybeans to China actually dated back to January, highlighting USDA reporting issues amid budget cuts and staffing problems. For comparison, China bought 26.8 mmt ($12.6B) of US beans last season.

🛢 Soybean Oil Surprise
USDA reported a flash sale of 22,000 mt soybean oil to South Korea for 25/26 delivery—the first of the year. Flash sales of oil are rare given domestic biofuel demand.

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0:00 Building Drought
6:13 USDA Preview
9:41 Export Sales
12:21 Brazil's Crop Report
14:20 Inflation is Up

🌽 Welcome back! Today we’re covering drought updates, USDA’s big monthly reports, export sales, Brazil’s latest production numbers, and fresh inflation data. Let’s dive in 👇

🌦 Weather & Drought Monitor
USDA’s weekly drought monitor shows worsening dryness across much of the Corn Belt. Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio saw notable deterioration, while Iowa and Minnesota posted smaller declines. About 20% of the region is now in drought, up 6% from last week. North Dakota remains the most drought-free state in the country.

Corn: 13% affected
Soybeans: 22%
Winter Wheat: 38%
Spring Wheat: 13%
Cattle: 18%

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
USDA releases its September Crop Production and WASDE reports today at 11am CST. Traders expect lower corn and soybean yields, though both are still projected at record highs.
Corn & soy yields expected to be down on dryness/disease
US ending stocks seen slightly lower
Global corn/soy stocks edging down, wheat up

🚢 Export Sales
US corn, soybean, and wheat export sales were all disappointing last week:
Corn: 539,900 mt (down 74%)—Mexico top buyer
Soybeans: 541,100 mt (down 34%)—Unknown destinations top buyer
Wheat: 305,400 mt (down 2%)—Japan top buyer

🇧🇷 Brazil Crop Update (Conab)
Conab raised estimates again:
Corn: record 139.7 mmt
Soybeans: record 171.5 mmt
Soy exports: 106.7 mmt, driven by China
Brazilian farmers are wrapping up safrinha harvest and starting first-crop planting.

📈 Economy & CPI
US consumer prices rose 2.9% YoY in August, the highest since January. Food led gains with meat and eggs up sharply. Trump’s tariffs may be adding to pressure. Markets expect Fed rate cuts in September, October, and possibly December.

👍 Don’t forget to subscribe for more daily grain market coverage, and drop your thoughts in the comments!

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0:00 Intro
0:49 USDA Preview
3:38 Argentina Situation
7:22 Positive (ish) Soybean Spin
10:11 Biofuel Back and Forth
12:15 Ethanol Production

🌽 Welcome back! Big USDA Report Tomorrow 🌽

📊 Crop Production & WASDE Preview
The USDA releases its monthly Crop Production and WASDE report Friday at 11am CST. Traders expect corn and soybean yield/production cuts, though both remain at record highs. Soybean exports could be trimmed again, with China still absent from the US market. Carryout projections: US corn, soybeans, and wheat are all expected to decline slightly; global wheat is seen higher. The big ticket items tomorrow are US corn and soybean yield estimates—this month USDA adds objective yield data into the mix.

🇦🇷 Argentina Outlook
Rosario Exchange pegs corn production at 61mmt, record-large if rainfall is adequate. 2024/25 outlook also boosted to 50mmt. Soybean acreage expected down 7%, with production forecast at 47mmt vs. 49.5mmt last year. Buenos Aires Exchange also sees lower acreage, down 4.3%.

🇨🇳 China’s Snub of US Soybeans
China booked 7.5mmt of October soybeans—95% from Brazil. At this time last year, they had 12–13mmt from the US. Despite US beans being cheaper, the 23% tariff adds $2/bu, keeping them uncompetitive. Analysts warn US farmers could lose 14–16mmt of soybean sales if China waits until mid-November. Still, USDA projects US exports only -9% YoY, thanks to other global buyers stepping in.

⛽ Biofuels & Policy Uncertainty
Trump’s new biofuel plan rattled the market, with concerns refiners may only face partial obligations. Senator Mike Lee’s bill adds more uncertainty. Biofuel shares (Bunge, ADM, Valero, and Green Plains) tumbled; RIN prices hit their lowest since June.

🍶 Ethanol Production & Margins
US ethanol output hit 1.1mil bpd, the strongest for this week in a decade. Stocks rose to 22.8mil barrels. Margins remain strong, anywhere from +20c to +60c across the Corn Belt, supported by low corn prices.

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