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🪙 Precious Metals

Silver prices surged last week, hitting a new all-time high above $78.50 per ounce on Friday. Silver is now up sharply this year, supported by a structural market deficit, strong industrial demand, and expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts. The metal is on track for its strongest annual performance since 1979, and some analysts believe the rally could extend into 2026 amid economic uncertainty and sticky inflation. Gold and platinum also reached record highs on Friday.

💵 US Dollar & Interest Rates

The US dollar posted its largest weekly decline in six months. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.8% last week as traders looked ahead to key January jobs and inflation reports. Markets expect the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady next month, but pricing suggests a rate cut by mid-year and another later in 2026. The dollar is now down roughly 8% on the year — on pace for its worst annual performance since 2017.
See charts below.

🌧️ South American Weather

Dry weather is expected across key Argentine corn and soybean areas over the next seven days. Large portions of Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and Córdoba are forecast to receive little to no rainfall, while areas farther north may see only limited precipitation. The 8–14 day forecast calls for a return to more normal rainfall across much of Argentina. Meanwhile, mostly normal rainfall is expected across major Brazilian soybean regions during the next two weeks.

🌽 Grain Markets

Corn futures drifted lower on Friday, with the Mar26 contract slipping one cent to settle near $4.50. Thin holiday trade and a lack of fresh catalysts kept activity subdued. Soybean futures also declined, as the Jan26 contract fell nearly 5 cents to close near $10.59. Beans remain under pressure from ample global supplies and ongoing concerns about the pace of Chinese buying. Chicago wheat futures moved lower as peace talks between Russia and Ukraine continued.

🌍 Geopolitics

President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met Sunday to continue peace negotiations. Trump said the US and Ukraine are very close to an agreement to end the war, though key issues — including the future of the Donbas region — remain unresolved. No formal deadline was set, but Trump suggested clarity could come within weeks. Ahead of the meeting, Trump also spoke with Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing the call as productive and noting Putin’s interest in helping rebuild Ukraine, including supplying low-cost energy.

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🚁 Drone Industry Shock
A new ban on Chinese-made drones is sending shockwaves through the U.S. drone industry.
On Monday, the FCC banned drones and critical components manufactured in certain foreign countries, citing national security risks. The restrictions primarily target Chinese manufacturers—including DJI, which controls an estimated 70–90% of the U.S. drone market.
The ban does not apply to drones already purchased or currently sitting in stores, though the FCC has left the door open to expanding restrictions to older models in the future.
U.S. officials have long warned that Chinese-made drones could allow data access or interference by the Chinese government. Drone pilots and ag operators warn that under the new rules, many businesses may only have a few years left.

🌽 USDA Export Sales (Catch-Up Edition)
USDA released another outdated, catch-up Export Sales report on Tuesday.
Soybeans: Strong sales at 2.4 mmt, up sharply from the prior week
China was the top buyer, accounting for 58% of total sales
Corn: Solid sales near the high end of expectations at 1.7 mmt
Japan was the largest buyer
Wheat: Sales totaled 432,600 mt, with Mexico leading purchases
Official U.S. soybean sales to China now stand at 5.4 mmt, though real-time estimates suggest the total could be closer to 7–8 mmt.
USDA says Export Sales reports will be fully current by January 8th.

🌱 Grain Market Update
Soybean futures edged lower Tuesday.
The Jan ’26 contract slipped slightly, as traders remain cautious about the pace of Chinese buying and the looming pressure from another record Brazilian soybean crop.
While the market often sees a year-end rally, bearish fundamentals continue to cap upside.

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy Update
The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than two years during the third quarter.
GDP expanded at an annualized 4.3%, beating expectations. Growth was driven mainly by strong consumer spending, along with higher exports and government spending.
Notably, analysts pointed out that rising healthcare costs accounted for a meaningful share of Q3 GDP growth.

🥇 Precious Metals Explosion
Precious metals ripped to record highs on Tuesday.
Silver surged past $70/oz
Gold climbed above $4,490/oz
Platinum and palladium also moved sharply higher
The rally has been fueled by geopolitical tensions, expectations for U.S. rate cuts, central bank buying, and strong investment demand.

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🏛️ USDA Workforce Cuts & Data Quality
The US Department of Agriculture saw a massive workforce reduction in the first half of the year. Between January and June, more than 20,000 employees left the agency—about 18% of total staff.
Most departures were tied to the Trump administration’s voluntary resignation program, which offered up to six months’ pay. Over 15,000 employees accepted the program, while roughly 2,000 resigned and about 1,300 retired.
The National Agricultural Statistics Service was hit especially hard, losing more than one-third of its workforce. DTN reported that NASS alone lost 275 employees—about 34% of staff—during the first six months of the year.
A USDA Office of Inspector General report shows that another 4,200 employees left between June and October. While USDA says it continues to hire for critical roles and refocus on a “farmer-first” mission, some recent USDA data issues are likely tied to severe understaffing.

🚢 Weekly Export Inspections
US soybean shipments were weak last week, landing near the low end of expectations. USDA reported soybean inspections at 870,199 mt, up from the prior week but sharply lower versus last year. About 44% of shipments were headed to China.
Corn shipments were strong, coming in at 1.7 mmt, well above last year. Wheat shipments also beat expectations at 627,443 mt.
Soybean shipments to China totaled 386,010 mt. Only one cargo moved through the PNW, with the rest shipped out of the Gulf.

🌱 Brazil Soybean Crop Outlook
AgRural raised its estimate for Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180.4 mmt, well above last season and above USDA’s forecast. Crop conditions have been favorable so far, and harvest has begun in parts of Parana and Mato Grosso.
Conab is forecasting production slightly lower, but still historically large. Yield potential will depend heavily on weather in the months ahead.

🌍 Wheat Market & Black Sea Tensions
Wheat futures moved higher amid escalating Black Sea tensions. Russia increased attacks near Ukraine’s Odesa region, while Ukraine struck Russia’s port of Taman. The disruption risks pushed Chicago wheat futures higher on the session.

📢 USDA Flash Sales & Export Sales
USDA reported another flash sale of soybeans to China, with most of the volume booked for the 2025/26 marketing year.
Export sales data showed strong soybean sales, led by China, while corn and wheat sales came in lower week-to-week. The report was part of USDA’s ongoing catch-up releases.

💰 Gold & Macro Markets
Gold surged to a new record above $4,400 per ounce, supported by geopolitical risk and expectations for interest rate cuts next year. Rising global tensions and uncertainty continue to drive safe-haven demand. Silver prices also moved sharply higher.

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🌾 Staying informed matters—especially right now.