China Buys US Soybeans... Then Switches Back to Brazil

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🌎 China’s Soybean Shuffle

China booked 20 Brazilian soybean cargoes—half for December, the rest for March–July—as Brazil undercuts US Gulf prices again.
Traders still expect US purchases under the truce, but the market wants official tariff news from Beijing.
US futures rallied anyway—Jan26 +19¢ to $11.34, the highest since July.
The rumor mill says more US deals behind closed doors. 👀

🚢 Export Check: Soybeans Weak, Corn Hot
US soybean inspections: 965K mt—down hard from last week and last year 😬
China is still absent.
Corn? 🔥 Big week—1.7 mmt, up sharply vs. last year.
Wheat is also stronger YoY.

🇨🇳 China Looks at US Wheat Again

China sniffing around SRW/HRW cargoes for Dec–Feb.
Traders call it goodwill buying more than economics.
Wheat futures pop—Dec25 closes near $5.44, the best in 3 months.

🌱 Brazil Planting Lags

Heat + dryness slowing planting: 47% vs 54% last year.
Some replant risk.
StoneX tweaks the outlook:
• Beans slightly higher at 178.9mmt
• Second corn crop cut to 107mmt

🇺🇸 US Harvest Almost Wrapped

Analysts peg harvest at:
• Corn 83% (vs 91% last year)
• Soybeans 91% (vs 94%)
Dry weather helped.
Still no crop progress reports during the shutdown—but WASDE/Prod is still coming Nov 14.

📊 StoneX US Yield Update

• Corn: 186 bpa—slight bump
• Beans: 53.6 bpa—trimmed
US production is essentially steady vs last month.