Will China REALLY Buy 440 MILLION Bushels of US Soybeans in the next 3 Months??

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✅ Welcome back — today we’re breaking down China’s long-term soybean commitment and what it really means for US farmers. 🌱🇺🇸🇨🇳

🌍 Global Market & Trade 🌐

China agreed to resume long-term US soybean buying under the new Trump-Xi trade truce:
12mmt through January
25mmt annually for 3 years
Removal of tariffs on most US ag goods
This is below the 29mmt average over the past 5 years—but far better than the “zero-buy” fear.
Chinese state media confirmed ag buys — but not the exact volumes Bessent mentioned.

ASA reaction:
✅ Positive tone
✅ Relief after stalled demand
✅ Optimism for future growth

Also—both countries will pause vessel fees for 12 months, easing $3.2B in shipping pressure.

Soybeans rallied on the announcement 👇
Jan26: +13¢ to ~$11.08/bu

Corn slipped lower
Dec25: down ~4¢ to ~$4.30
No corn commitments in this agreement + USDA reports paused by shutdown = headwinds

Wheat lower
Dec Chicago: -8¢ near $5.24

📝 Key Takeaway

This deal is not a blockbuster, but it does restore baseline demand and boosts confidence after months of uncertainty.
Markets like it. Farmers like it.
And it beats the alternative. ✔️

🌦️ Weather & Crop Conditions
US drought conditions were mostly steady this week.
Some relief in parts of KY/OH/MI, but dryness worsened in IA & IL.
High Plains remains least impacted; mixed changes in the Dakotas & the Southern Plains.
Corn impacted by drought: 30%
Soybeans: 34%
Winter wheat: 40%
Cattle areas in drought: 26%