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Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
- Incerto, Book 1
- Narrated by: Joe Ochman
- Length: 8 hrs and 57 mins
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Publisher's summary
Fooled by Randomness is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb - veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times best-selling author of The Black Swan - has penned a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck - or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill - the world of trading - Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Presented in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed - the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time - he embodies the “survival of the least fit”. Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after listening to Fooled by Randomness, we can be a little better prepared.
Includes bonus pdf of tables and figures.
Praise for Fooled by Randomness:
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
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Critic reviews
“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.” (Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink)
“We need a book like this ...fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.” (Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance)
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“Powerful...loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.” (National Review)
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Charlie Munger, Berkshire Hathaway's visionary vice chairman and Warren Buffett's indispensable financial partner, has outperformed market indexes again and again, and he believes any investor can do the same. His notion of "elementary, worldly wisdom" - a set of interdisciplinary mental models involving economics, business, psychology, ethics, and management - allows him to keep his emotions out of his investments and avoid the common pitfalls of bad judgment.
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Good, but... one major annoyance
- By Joseph R. Compton on 02-26-16
By: Tren Griffin
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The Education of a Value Investor
- My Transformative Quest for Wealth, Wisdom and Enlightenment
- By: Guy Spier
- Narrated by: Malk Williams
- Length: 6 hrs and 28 mins
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Performance
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What happens when a young Wall Street investment banker spends a small fortune to have lunch with Warren Buffett? He becomes a real value investor. In this fascinating inside story, Guy Spier details his career from Harvard MBA to hedge fund manager. But the path was not so straightforward. Spier reveals his transformation from a Gordon Gekko wannabe, driven by greed, to a sophisticated investor who enjoys success without selling his soul to the highest bidder.
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Malk Williams does a superb job.
- By Guy Spier on 11-30-14
By: Guy Spier
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The Myth of the Rational Market
- A History of Risk, Reward, and Delusion on Wall Street
- By: Justin Fox
- Narrated by: Alan Sklar
- Length: 13 hrs and 38 mins
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Chronicling the rise and fall of the efficient market theory and the century-long making of the modern financial industry, Justin Fox’s The Myth of the Rational Market is as much an intellectual whodunit as a cultural history of the perils and possibilities of risk. The book brings to life the people and ideas that forged modern finance and investing, from the formative days of Wall Street through the Great Depression and into the financial calamity of today.
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Probably most interesting to economists
- By D. Martin on 06-29-12
By: Justin Fox
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The Book of Why
- The New Science of Cause and Effect
- By: Judea Pearl, Dana Mackenzie
- Narrated by: Mel Foster
- Length: 15 hrs and 14 mins
- Unabridged
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"Correlation does not imply causation". This mantra has been invoked by scientists for decades and has led to a virtual prohibition on causal talk. But today, that taboo is dead. The causal revolution, sparked by Judea Pearl and his colleagues, has cut through a century of confusion and placed causality - the study of cause and effect - on a firm scientific basis.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- By rrwright on 05-30-18
By: Judea Pearl, and others
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- By: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrated by: Sean Runnette
- Length: 7 hrs and 27 mins
- Unabridged
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Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- By Ian on 11-24-18
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The Most Important Thing
- Uncommon Sense for The Thoughtful Investor
- By: Howard Marks
- Narrated by: John FitzGibbon
- Length: 7 hrs and 9 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
Howard Marks, the chairman and cofounder of Oaktree Capital Management, is renowned for his insightful assessments of market opportunity and risk. After four decades spent ascending to the top of the investment management profession, he is today sought out by the world's leading value investors, and his client memos brim with insightful commentary and a time-tested, fundamental philosophy. The Most Important Thing explains the keys to successful investment and the pitfalls that can destroy capital or ruin a career.
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Five Star Book, two Star Audiobook
- By Johnny on 06-08-15
By: Howard Marks
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- By: Dan Gardner
- Narrated by: Walter Dixon
- Length: 11 hrs and 1 min
- Unabridged
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In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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Future Babble Babble
- By Karen on 05-04-11
By: Dan Gardner
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Bozo Sapiens
- Why to Err Is Human
- By: Michael Kaplan, Ellen Kaplan
- Narrated by: Victor Bevine
- Length: 9 hrs and 46 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Our species, it appears, is hardwired to get things wrong in myriad different ways. Why did recipients of a loan offer accept a higher rate of interest when a pretty woman's face was printed on the flyer? Why did one poll on immigration find the most despised aliens were ones from a group that did not exist? What made four of the Air Force's best pilots fly their planes, in formation, straight into the ground?
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A tour de force
- By Ivan on 07-05-11
By: Michael Kaplan, and others
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Perfect Bet
- How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
- By: Adam Kucharski
- Narrated by: Jonathan Yen
- Length: 8 hrs and 34 mins
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From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
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Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
- By Philo on 04-02-16
By: Adam Kucharski
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Success and Luck
- Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy
- By: Robert H. Frank
- Narrated by: Robert H. Frank
- Length: 5 hrs and 19 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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Story
How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine.
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Not what is advertised
- By Andre on 04-18-17
By: Robert H. Frank
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The Mind of the Market
- Compassionate Apes, Competitive Humans and Other Tales from Evolutionary Economics
- By: Michael Shermer
- Narrated by: Michael Shermer
- Length: 5 hrs and 26 mins
- Abridged
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Performance
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Story
The Mind of the Market will change the way we think about the economics of everyday life. Drawing on research from neuroeconomics, Michael Shermer explores what brain scans reveal about bargaining, snap purchases, and how trust is established in business. Utilizing experiments in behavioral economics, Shermer shows why people hang on to losing stocks and failing companies, why business negotiations often disintegrate into emotional tit-for-tat disputes, and why money does not make us happy.
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Good ideas overshadowed by obnoxious polemics
- By Philo on 09-15-13
By: Michael Shermer
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Heads I Win, Tails I Win
- Why Smart Investors Fail and How to Tilt the Odds in Your Favor
- By: Spencer Jakab
- Narrated by: Sean Pratt
- Length: 8 hrs and 30 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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According to Wall Street Journal investing columnist Spencer Jakab, most of us have no idea how much money we're leaving on the table - or that the average saver doesn't come anywhere close to earning the "average" returns touted in those glossy brochures. We're handicapped not only by psychological biases and a fear of missing out but by an industry with multimillion-dollar marketing budgets and an eye on its own bottom line, not yours.
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Got my head screwed on straight
- By Rob Barry on 12-20-18
By: Spencer Jakab
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You Are Now Less Dumb
- How to Conquer Mob Mentality, How to Buy Happiness, and All the Other Ways to Outsmart Yourself
- By: David McRaney
- Narrated by: Don Hagen
- Length: 8 hrs and 40 mins
- Unabridged
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Overall
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Performance
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You Are Now Less Dumb is grounded in the idea that we all believe ourselves to be objective observers of reality - except we’re not. But that's okay, because our delusions keep us sane. Expanding on this premise, McRaney provides eye-opening analyses of 15 more ways we fool ourselves every day. This smart and highly entertaining audiobook will be wowing listeners for years to come.
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Not a lot of guidance
- By A. Yoshida on 02-08-14
By: David McRaney
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What listeners say about Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets
Average customer ratingsReviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.
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- John Simon
- 07-14-19
Randomness is a Boon for Bounty
This book should be taught to every high school Sophomore before they enter the rigor of the college testing and application process, as it will allow them to filter out the noise of authority figures and focus on themselves by delving into Taleb’s truly unique worldview.
I look forward to listening to/reading the rest of the series. Truly an exceptional book.
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- WiseGuy
- 04-21-20
Good
I said that it was good what do you want from me!!! And now I...
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- Anne Swart
- 04-23-22
Randomly Chosen Book
I love that my choosing this book was so random.
A lot to digest and doubtless that in months to come I shall have a random conversation that shall result in an aha! moment where the authors thoughts shall be blindingly obvious.
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- T. Kalinowski
- 09-03-22
Must read it again
One of the best books I’ve read. Very practical applicable to every day life for all people also like the edginess of it
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- Rus Paul
- 12-13-20
Fantastic job by Ochman
Joe Ochman captures NTT's style superbly.
The book is quite good also. A more philosophical extension to Thinking Fast And Slow by DK & AT. Would recommend.
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- Ekele Onuh Oscar
- 06-19-19
Not for MBAs and Economist
as I read through, I was humbled by the limit of what I knew, grateful for the privilege and luck I had due to the simple random fact I was born in the family that I come from.
this book makes you skeptic, you will learn to not take your efforts too seriously, your knowledge too important and your circumstance to severe if it were.
if you are an economist, this book would make you feel bad. if you have an MBA, this book would make you feel useless.
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7 people found this helpful
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- Spencer
- 06-16-20
The Incerto is a must read
The Incerto is the by far the best book I've read. Antifragile is the best book in the collection, but the other 3 (Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan and Skin in the Game) are all amazing as well and vital listening.
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5 people found this helpful
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- Kolby O'Malley
- 06-15-20
Amazing book and will forever change my investment
would highly recommend this book for every investor as it has changed the entire way I view investments and I will never see the world of investing the same again.
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- Wolfram Arnold
- 01-02-22
Deep thoughts but left in generalities
Nassim Taleb avdances thought-provoking theses in this book. However his insights remain at a general level and what's lacking for is how to apply these insights to practical situations. Like how, for example would you use Monte Carlo simulations to proof a portfolio against Black Swan events? A big plus of the book, however I found the book's humanity. While the author is good at dishing out, he also shows his own fallibility. He doesn't take himself too seriously and has a sense of humor which made listening enjoyable.
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- Federico Rubiolo
- 07-30-22
Some Great Highlights
For me, the style of the author was a little off putting at times. It seemed, at times, very high and mighty, and like he was quite significantly discounting large groups of people in petty ways. Of course, each individual's definition of petty varies.
That said, there are some brilliant insights and great ideas in this book that strongly resonated with me. All the discussions of probability based biases that we all experience were very insightful, and immediately examples in my own life of these biases (both from myself and others) would come to mind. Overall, I certainly enjoyed this book, even if at times it felt preachy.
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2 people found this helpful