Preview
  • The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

  • Incerto, Book 2
  • By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
  • Narrated by: Joe Ochman
  • Length: 15 hrs and 48 mins
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars (2,083 ratings)

Prime logo Prime members: New to Audible?
Get 2 free audiobooks during trial.
Pick 1 audiobook a month from our unmatched collection.
Listen all you want to thousands of included audiobooks, Originals, and podcasts.
Access exclusive sales and deals.
Premium Plus auto-renews for $14.95/mo after 30 days. Cancel anytime.

The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

By: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Narrated by: Joe Ochman
Try for $0.00

$14.95/month after 30 days. Cancel anytime.

Buy for $22.50

Buy for $22.50

Pay using card ending in
By confirming your purchase, you agree to Audible's Conditions of Use and Amazon's Privacy Notice. Taxes where applicable.

Publisher's summary

The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.

Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible”.

For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.

Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.

Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures.

Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“The most prophetic voice of all.” (GQ)

Praise for The Black Swan:

“[A book] that altered modern thinking.” (The Times, London)

“A masterpiece.” (Chris Anderson, Editor-in-chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail)

“Hugely enjoyable - compelling...easy to dip into.” (Financial Times)

PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.

©2010 Nassim Nicholas Taleb (P)2018 Random House Audio
activate_Holiday_promo_in_buybox_DT_T2

Critic reviews

“Engaging.... The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.” (The New York Times Book Review)

“[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne.... We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.” (The Wall Street Journal)

The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.” (Daniel Kahneman, Nobel Laureate)

“Idiosyncratically brilliant.” (Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times)

What listeners say about The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility"

Average customer ratings
Overall
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Stars
    1,481
  • 4 Stars
    362
  • 3 Stars
    133
  • 2 Stars
    63
  • 1 Stars
    44
Performance
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Stars
    1,292
  • 4 Stars
    286
  • 3 Stars
    95
  • 2 Stars
    29
  • 1 Stars
    21
Story
  • 4.5 out of 5 stars
  • 5 Stars
    1,183
  • 4 Stars
    292
  • 3 Stars
    137
  • 2 Stars
    57
  • 1 Stars
    44

Reviews - Please select the tabs below to change the source of reviews.

Sort by:
Filter by:
  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Great book and performance

Taleb makes a convincing case for the impact of black swans in every day life.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Great practical work

This book changed my approach to how I think. Actually it encouraged me to think vs use short cuts of conventional wisdom which often isn’t wisdom at all. I agree with Nobel laureate Daniel Kahneman, “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”! The book has support through an extensive bibliography. If you are interested in making better decisions, learning how to not be blindsided, this is the book for you in my opinion.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Required Reading

as someone working in film finance, this is music to my ears. this, along with Daniel Kahneman's Thinking Fast and Slow should be required reading for anyone in any form of forecasting.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Start here, continue here and finish here!

First, I would like to start with the great job that Joe did on reading it and second that Nassim is a world treasure!

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

so cool!

I'm not a technical consumer but it was a fascinating read. I think I understood 50%.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

18 people found this helpful

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Words can't even describe how good this book is

If you read Thinking Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman and then read this book afterward and you understand all the material presented and use it, you will then be smarter than most people. I was lucky enough to have read them in that order. Kahneman and Talib are buddies and colleagues too.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Insightful opinions on statistics

I found Taleb's careful and comprehensive explanation about why we should be continually wary of statistics excellent. Recommended read to make sure you have awareness of "extremeistan' and why it is relevant in statistics.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    4 out of 5 stars

Beware this will break all your previous theories

I never imagined the world in this way, I am a bit uncomfortable but enlightened by thoughts and ideas presented, small humour is also greatly appreciated. though I feel the same idea has been repeated multiple times, the book can be a bit shorter.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    5 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    5 out of 5 stars

Necessary

Despite disliking the sprawled out, redundant, sometimes difficult to follow and often pompous writing style, I got through this and the Antifragile book because of the very important message that is under appreciated anywhere else. A must-read for understanding rare events and protecting against them - not “if” but “when” they occur. Never more relevant than with the recent COVID pandemic and the under-preparedness of everyone from CDC, WHO, hospitals and government - all people who knew but somehow didn’t believe it would happen.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!

  • Overall
    4 out of 5 stars
  • Performance
    3 out of 5 stars
  • Story
    4 out of 5 stars

A book about unpredictable event is somewhat predictable

The entire book can probably be summed up as “you know nothing, Jon Snow”. The book is probably more philosophical than practical. I enjoyed the counterintuitive thinking but it was a little repetitive.

Something went wrong. Please try again in a few minutes.

You voted on this review!

You reported this review!