The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 28
What if we could learn to accept I don't know and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity? The Art of Uncertainty is an invitation to the listener to consider its essential message: learning to love the unknown by staying present in the moment....The only thing we can control is our next thought. What if we could learn how to be at peace with uncertainty and embrace the possibility that the future is full of mystery, excitement, and unlimited opportunity?
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5 out of 5 stars
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love love love!!!
- De Tramani en 03-08-15
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Nathaniel Priestley
- Duración: 9 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
De: Adam Kucharski
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Masters of Uncertainty: The Navy SEAL Way to Turn Stress into Success for You and Your Team
- De: Rich Diviney
- Narrado por: Rich Diviney
- Duración: 2 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 5
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 5
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 5
Retired Navy SEAL commander and performance expert Rich Diviney reveals a revolutionary method for training individuals and teams to perform at their best, no matter what.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Incredible and concise- everyone at any level or stage / phase of everything can use this book
- De Anonymous User en 03-01-25
De: Rich Diviney
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Everything Is Predictable
- How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World
- De: Tom Chivers
- Narrado por: Tom Chivers
- Duración: 8 h y 7 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 47
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 43
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 43
At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything. But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem?
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1 out of 5 stars
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I was looking forward to this. What a disappointment.
- De Alessandro Fadini en 06-28-24
De: Tom Chivers
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Rain of Ruin
- Tokyo, Hiroshima, and the Surrender of Japan
- De: Richard Overy
- Narrado por: Ralph Lister
- Duración: 6 h y 5 m
- Versión completa
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General3 out of 5 stars 1
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1
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Historia3 out of 5 stars 1
In 1945, US air attacks in Japan killed 300,000 civilians in three hours of night bombing and two nuclear strikes. The firebombing of Tokyo in March burned almost the entire city, killed some 85,000 residents, and left more than 1 million homeless. The atomic blast in Hiroshima in August killed some 119,000 civilians and 20,000 soldiers. After a second nuclear attack days later in Nagasaki and a declaration of war by the Soviet Union, Japan accepted defeat.
De: Richard Overy
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How Economics Explains the World
- A Short History of Humanity
- De: Andrew Leigh
- Narrado por: Stephen Graybill
- Duración: 5 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 34
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 32
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 32
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Rehashed ideas better explained in other books
- De Louislocke en 10-27-24
De: Andrew Leigh
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Ordinary Magic
- The Science of How We Can Achieve Big Change with Small Acts
- De: Gregory M. Walton PhD
- Narrado por: Gregory M. Walton PhD, Hattie Tate
- Duración: 14 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The emotional questions we face can define our lives. If you’re expecting an interaction to go wrong, that expectation can make it so. That’s spiraling down. But as esteemed Stanford psychologist Greg Walton shows, when we see these questions clearly, we can answer them well. Known to social psychologists as wise interventions, these shifts in perspective can help us chart new trajectories for our lives. They help us spiral up. This is ordinary magic: The ordinary experiences that help us set aside the ordinary worries of life to unleash extraordinary change.
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Tiny Experiments
- How to Live Freely in a Goal-Obsessed World
- De: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Narrado por: Anne-Laure Le Cunff
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 35
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 33
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 33
Life isn’t linear, and yet we try to mold it around linear goals: four-year college degrees, ten-year career plans, thirty-year mortgages. What if instead we approached life as a giant playground for experimentation? Based on ancestral philosophy and the latest scientific research, Tiny Experiments provides a desperately needed reframing: Uncertainty can be a state of expanded possibility and a space for metamorphosis. Neuroscientist and entrepreneur Anne-Laure Le Cunff reveals that all you need is an experimental mindset to turn challenges into self-discovery and doubt into opportunity.
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5 out of 5 stars
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A Refreshing Take on Growth and Creativity!
- De Naya en 03-05-25
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Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- De: Kelly Clancy
- Narrado por: Patty Nieman
- Duración: 11 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 17
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 15
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- De Rony exantus en 01-06-25
De: Kelly Clancy
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Conflict Resilience
- Negotiating Disagreement Without Giving Up or Giving In
- De: Robert Bordone, Joel Salinas
- Narrado por: Chris Brinkley
- Duración: 13 h y 14 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 2
Two former Harvard faculty—one an internationally-recognized negotiator and conflict management expert from Harvard Law, the other a leading behavioral neurologist and cutting-edge scientist from Harvard Med—join forces to introduce conflict resilience: the radical act of sitting in and growing from conflict to break the bad habits that sabotage our politics, workplaces, and most important relationships.
De: Robert Bordone, y otros
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The Ideological Brain
- The Radical Science of Flexible Thinking
- De: Leor Zmigrod
- Narrado por: Tania Rodrigues
- Duración: 9 h y 42 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 4
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 3
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Historia3.5 out of 5 stars 3
Leor Zmigrod reveals the deep connection between political beliefs and the biology of the brain. Drawing on her own pioneering research, she uncovers the complex interplay between biology and environment that predisposes some individuals to rigid ways of thinking, and explains how ideologies take hold of our brains, fundamentally changing the way we think, act and interact with others.
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3 out of 5 stars
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interesting historical survey
- De C. Tilney en 04-03-25
De: Leor Zmigrod
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Third Millennium Thinking
- Creating Sense in a World of Nonsense
- De: Saul Perlmutter PhD, Robert MacCoun PhD, John Campbell PhD
- Narrado por: Joe Paulino
- Duración: 11 h y 10 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 15
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 13
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 13
Based on a wildly popular UC Berkeley course, a primer on how to think critically, make sound decisions, and solve problems—individually and collectively—using scientists’ tricks of the trade.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Hope
- De nnnnnnnn en 01-08-25
De: Saul Perlmutter PhD, y otros
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The Upside of Uncertainty
- A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
- De: Nathan Furr, Susannah Harmon Furr
- Narrado por: Dina Pearlman
- Duración: 11 h y 13 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 14
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a sweeping guide to embracing uncertainty and transforming it into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide dozens of tools—including mental models, techniques, and reflections—for seeing the upside of uncertainty, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to new possibilities.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Real World Usable Advice
- De Nathan & Kira Huggins en 02-23-24
De: Nathan Furr, y otros
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Air-Borne
- The Hidden History of the Life We Breathe
- De: Carl Zimmer
- Narrado por: Joe Ochman
- Duración: 15 h y 52 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 17
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 16
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 16
Every day we draw in two thousand gallons of air—and thousands of living things. From the ground to the stratosphere, the air teems with invisible life. This last great biological frontier remains so mysterious that it took over two years for scientists to finally agree that the COVID pandemic was caused by an airborne virus. In Air-Borne, award-winning New York Times columnist and author Carl Zimmer leads us on an odyssey through the living atmosphere and through the history of its discovery.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Very clarifying look at how messy science can be
- De webtraverser en 03-04-25
De: Carl Zimmer
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The Social Genome
- The New Science of Nature and Nurture
- De: Dalton Conley
- Narrado por: Christopher Douyard
- Duración: 8 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1
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Historia3 out of 5 stars 1
Sociogenomics brings together advances in molecular genetics and traditional social and behavioral science. The key tool is the polygenic index, which allows us to analyze DNA to measure a child's genetic potential. Today, we can estimate a child's adult height, how far they will go in school, and their weight as an adult—all from a cheek swab, finger prick, or vial of saliva. Dalton Conley and other researchers are using this new science to shed light on the ways in which genes shape our world, influencing how each person both creates and responds to the environment around them.
De: Dalton Conley
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What We Value
- De: Emily Falk
- Narrado por: Emily Falk
- Duración: 7 h y 29 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 1
Amid the many competing priorities of our busy lives, it can feel difficult to make the right decisions―ones that feel aligned with the things we care about. Change can feel almost impossible. In this book, award-winning researcher Emily Falk reveals how we can transform our relationship with the daily choices that define our lives by thinking like a neuroscientist about what we value.
De: Emily Falk
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Zero
- The Biography of a Dangerous Idea
- De: Charles Seife
- Narrado por: Bob Souer
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 208
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 169
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 168
In Zero, science journalist Charles Seife follows this innocent-looking number from its birth as an Eastern philosophical concept to its struggle for acceptance in Europe, its rise and transcendence in the West, and its ever-present threat to modern physics.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Wonderful book!
- De Samvir Tamadurgam en 07-26-21
De: Charles Seife
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre The Art of Uncertainty
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Total5 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución5 out of 5 stars
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Historia5 out of 5 stars
- Roger March
- 04-01-25
Terrific
I was much better than I expected. Unfortunately, I got as an audio book and will have to get a print version.
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