The Art of Uncertainty
How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck
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The Art of Uncertainty
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Narrado por:
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David Spiegelhalter
Acerca de esta escucha
How dangerous is our diet? How much of sports falls into the realm of luck? When authorities categorize a given event as "highly likely"—how likely is that, really? Whether we're trying to decide if the benefits of a new medication are worth the chance of side effects or if artificial intelligence truly threatens humanity, our lives are riddled with uncertainties both everyday and existential—yet it can be difficult to know how to properly weigh all those unknowns. In The Art of Uncertainty, renowned statistician David Spiegelhalter shows how we can become better at dealing with what we don't know to make smarter choices in a world so full of puzzling variables.
In lucid, lively prose, Spiegelhalter guides us through the principles of probability, illustrating how they can help us think more analytically about everything from medical advice to sports to climate change forecasts. He demonstrates how taking a mathematical approach to phenomena we might otherwise attribute to fate or luck can help us sort hidden patterns from mere coincidences, better evaluate cause and effect, and predict what's likely to happen in the future.
Sparkling with wit and fascinating real-world examples, this is an essential guide to navigating uncertainty while also retaining the humility to admit what we don't, or simply cannot, know.
©2024 David Spiegelhalter (P)2024 Penguin AudioLos oyentes también disfrutaron...
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General4 out of 5 stars 40
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 35
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 35
This small book indeed tells a big story. It is the story of capitalism–of how our market system developed. It is the story of the discipline of economics, and some of the key figures who formed it. And it is the story of how economic forces have shaped world history. Why didn’t Africa colonize Europe instead of the other way around? What happened when countries erected trade and immigration barriers in the 1930s? Why did the Allies win World War II? You’ll find answers to these questions and more in How Economics Explains the World.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Horrible, It is like Ray Dalio’s gibberish
- De Robert Elliott en 05-02-25
De: Andrew Leigh
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More and More and More
- An All-Consuming History of Energy
- De: Jean-Baptiste Fressoz
- Narrado por: Richard Trinder
- Duración: 7 h y 15 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
We have long been taught that humanity’s relationship with energy is one of progress, with wood superseded by coal, coal by oil, oil by nuclear—until at some future point everything will be replaced by “green” energy. But the long-held belief in transition and sustainability is completely untrue, Jean-Baptiste Fressoz argues. More and More and More demolishes this disastrous fallacy, showing how our industrial age and beyond has in fact been powered by an ever-greater accumulation of each major energy source feeding off the others.
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The Corporation in the 21st Century
- Why (Almost) Everything We Are Told About Business Is Wrong
- De: John Kay
- Narrado por: Peter Wicks
- Duración: 14 h y 19 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 5
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 5
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 5
John Kay's incisive overhaul of our ideas about business redefines our understanding of successful commercial activity and the corporation—and describes how we have come to "love the product" as we "hate the producer." This is a brilliant and original work from one of the greatest economists.
De: John Kay
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The Upside of Uncertainty
- A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown
- De: Nathan Furr, Susannah Harmon Furr
- Narrado por: Dina Pearlman
- Duración: 11 h y 13 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 14
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
In The Upside of Uncertainty, INSEAD professor Nathan Furr and entrepreneur Susannah Harmon Furr provide a sweeping guide to embracing uncertainty and transforming it into a force for good. Drawing from hundreds of interviews, along with pioneering research in psychology, innovation, and behavioral economics, Nathan and Susannah provide dozens of tools—including mental models, techniques, and reflections—for seeing the upside of uncertainty, developing a vision for what to do next, and opening ourselves up to new possibilities.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Real World Usable Advice
- De Nathan & Kira Huggins en 02-23-24
De: Nathan Furr, y otros
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Proof
- The Art and Science of Certainty
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Nathaniel Priestley
- Duración: 9 h y 43 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 3
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 3
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 3
An award-winning mathematician shows how we prove what’s true, and what to do when we can’t.
De: Adam Kucharski
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Metadata
- The MIT Press Essential Knowledge Series
- De: Jeffrey Pomerantz
- Narrado por: Steven Menasche
- Duración: 5 h y 8 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 19
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 17
When "metadata" became breaking news, appearing in stories about surveillance by the National Security Agency, many members of the public encountered this once-obscure term from information science for the first time. Should people be reassured that the NSA was "only" collecting metadata about phone calls - information about the caller, the recipient, the time, the duration, the location - and not recordings of the conversations themselves? Or does phone call metadata reveal more than it seems?
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5 out of 5 stars
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This Rocks!
- De M.Biblioswine en 07-31-20
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Thinking in Algorithms
- How to Combine Computer Analysis and Human Creativity for Better Problem-Solving and Decision-Making: Strategic Thinking Skills, Book 2
- De: Albert Rutherford
- Narrado por: Russell Newton
- Duración: 2 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 9
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 7
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 7
Think creatively like a human. Analyze and solve problems efficiently like a computer. Our everyday lives are filled with inefficient and ineffective decisions and solutions. Being overwhelmed by the magnitude of our problems makes it hard to think clearly. We procrastinate and overthink. Our thoughts are tainted with biases. If only there was a way to simplify our decision-making and problem-solving process and get satisfying, consistent results! The good news is, there is! Apply computer algorithms to your everyday problems.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Useful techniques to problem solve.
- De James V Wilson en 01-05-23
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Playing with Reality
- How Games Have Shaped Our World
- De: Kelly Clancy
- Narrado por: Patty Nieman
- Duración: 11 h y 39 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 18
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 16
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 16
We play games to learn about the world, to understand our minds and the minds of others, and to make predictions about the future. Games are an essential aspect of humanity and a powerful tool for modeling reality. They’re also a lot of fun. But games can be dangerous, especially when we mistake the model worlds of games for reality itself and let gamification co-opt human decision making. Playing with Reality explores the riveting history of games since the Enlightenment.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Fluidity of concept to reality explanation from the author
- De Rony exantus en 01-06-25
De: Kelly Clancy
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Escape from Model Land
- How Mathematical Models Can Lead Us Astray and What We Can Do About It
- De: Erica Thompson
- Narrado por: Kirsty Dillon
- Duración: 9 h y 38 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 21
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 18
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 18
Whether we are worried about the spread of COVID-19 or making a corporate budget, we depend on mathematical models to help us understand the world around us every day. But models aren’t a mirror of reality. In fact, they are fantasies, where everything works out perfectly, every time. And relying on them too heavily can hurt us. In Escape from Model Land, statistician Erica Thompson illuminates the hidden dangers of models.
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5 out of 5 stars
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a lot of worth while substance in this book
- De Amazon Customer en 02-17-23
De: Erica Thompson
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Perfect Bet
- How Science and Math Are Taking the Luck out of Gambling
- De: Adam Kucharski
- Narrado por: Jonathan Yen
- Duración: 8 h y 34 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 81
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 73
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 73
From the simple to the intricate and the audacious to the absurd, Adam Kucharski reveals the long and tangled history between betting and science and explains why gambling continues to generate insights into luck and decision making today. Covering exploits and ideas from across the globe, he meets the teams behind hedge funds that capitalize on inaccurate sports betting odds and explains how PhD-level pundits are using methods originally developed for the US nuclear program to predict sports results.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Nontechnical, wandering far beyond "gaming"
- De Philo en 04-02-16
De: Adam Kucharski
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Ordinary Magic
- The Science of How We Can Achieve Big Change with Small Acts
- De: Gregory M. Walton PhD
- Narrado por: Gregory M. Walton PhD, Hattie Tate
- Duración: 14 h y 26 m
- Versión completa
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General5 out of 5 stars 2
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 2
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Historia5 out of 5 stars 2
The emotional questions we face can define our lives. If you’re expecting an interaction to go wrong, that expectation can make it so. That’s spiraling down. But as esteemed Stanford psychologist Greg Walton shows, when we see these questions clearly, we can answer them well. Known to social psychologists as wise interventions, these shifts in perspective can help us chart new trajectories for our lives. They help us spiral up. This is ordinary magic: The ordinary experiences that help us set aside the ordinary worries of life to unleash extraordinary change.
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5 out of 5 stars
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So simple and so profound
- De S. Ma en 05-17-25
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The History of Money
- A Story of Humanity
- De: David McWilliams
- Narrado por: David McWilliams
- Duración: 13 h y 54 m
- Versión completa
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General0 out of 5 stars 0
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Narración:0 out of 5 stars 0
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Historia0 out of 5 stars 0
The story of humanity is inextricable from that of money. No innovation has defined our own evolution so thoroughly and changed the direction of our planet’s history so dramatically. And yet despite money’s primacy, most of us don’t truly understand it. As leading economist David McWilliams shows, money is central to every aspect of our civilization, from the political to the artistic.
De: David McWilliams
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Zero
- The Biography of a Dangerous Idea
- De: Charles Seife
- Narrado por: Bob Souer
- Duración: 6 h y 25 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 209
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 170
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 169
In Zero, science journalist Charles Seife follows this innocent-looking number from its birth as an Eastern philosophical concept to its struggle for acceptance in Europe, its rise and transcendence in the West, and its ever-present threat to modern physics.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Wonderful book!
- De Samvir Tamadurgam en 07-26-21
De: Charles Seife
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Mathematica
- A Secret World of Intuition and Curiosity
- De: David Bessis, Kevin Frey - translator
- Narrado por: Mike Lenz
- Duración: 9 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 15
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 15
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 15
Math has a reputation for being inaccessible. People think that it requires a special gift or that comprehension is a matter of genes. Yet, the greatest mathematicians throughout history, from Rene Descartes to Alexander Grothendieck, have insisted that this is not the case.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great General Creativity Guide (w' math as a lens)
- De V. Bandy en 07-19-24
De: David Bessis, y otros
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An Introduction to Information Theory
- Symbols, Signals and Noise
- De: John R. Pierce
- Narrado por: Kyle Tait
- Duración: 10 h y 12 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 58
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 50
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 50
Behind the familiar surfaces of the telephone, radio, and television lies a sophisticated and intriguing body of knowledge known as information theory. This is the theory that has permitted the rapid development of all sorts of communication, from color television to the clear transmission of photographs from the vicinity of Jupiter. Even more revolutionary progress is expected in the future.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not bad, but...
- De Jane Doe en 06-26-20
De: John R. Pierce
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