Everything Is Predictable

How Bayesian Statistics Explain Our World

De: Tom Chivers

Narrado por: Tom Chivers

A “fascinating, witty, and perspective-shifting” (Oliver Burkeman, New York Times bestselling author) tour of Bayes’s theorem and its global impact on modern life from the acclaimed science writer and author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy.

At its simplest, Bayes’s theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event. But in Everything Is Predictable, Tom Chivers lays out how it affects every aspect of our lives. He explains why highly accurate screening tests can lead to false positives and how a failure to account for it in court has put innocent people in jail. A cornerstone of rational thought, many argue that Bayes’s theorem is a description of almost everything.

But who was the man who lent his name to this theorem? How did an 18th-century Presbyterian minister and amateur mathematician uncover a theorem that would affect fields as diverse as medicine, law, and artificial intelligence?

“Witty, lively, and best of all, extremely nerdy” (Tim Harford, author of The Undercover Economist), Everything Is Predictable is an entertaining and accessible illustration of how a single compelling idea can have far reaching consequences.

Great opportunity to ponder...

...how one behaves and how one might be behaving optimally. And the reader performes and reads with proper deference.

Great explanations of apply Bayesian logic

The author makes Bayesian statistics comprehensible and then goes on to real world applications and some history as to how classical statistics sometimes yields bad science. Great listen.

Hard to listen to

Great book, forced to buy hard copy.
A companion to Bernoulli's Fallacy. Probability theory is used to control how we think, it's always a good idea to investigate why some conclude what they do.

Excellent

Enjoyed immensely. The audio is clearly delivered and the Bayes theorem of predictability well referenced and explained. Would. listen again.

Great topic spoken in simple terms!

Great voice. Great content. Wish this author would create more. This text is welcoming to novice minds on the subject matter. It also does a great job giving some historical background. Would love more on free energy theory.