How Countries Go Broke

Principles for Navigating the Big Debt Cycle, Where We Are Headed, and What We Should Do

By: Ray Dalio

Narrated by: Jeremy Bobb, Ray Dalio

*** THE #1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER ***

'Advance copies of Ray Dalio’s new book about how countries go broke have become a hot read in Washington' New York Times

An urgent warning about the global economy from Ray Dalio, the #1 New York Times bestselling author of Principles.

Do big government debts threaten our collective well-being? Are there limits to debt growth? Can a big, important reserve currency country like the United States really go broke – and what would that look like?

For decades, politicians, policymakers and investors have debated these questions, but the answers have eluded them. In this groundbreaking book, Ray Dalio, one of the greatest investors of our time who anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and the 2010–12 European debt crisis, shares for the first time his detailed explanation of what he calls the 'Big Debt Cycle'. Understanding this cycle is critical for helping policymakers, investors and the general public grasp where we are and where we are headed with the debt issue. Dalio's model points toward surprisingly straightforward solutions for dealing with the debt problems that the US, Europe, Japan and China face today.

How Countries Go Broke also shows how these debt problems are related to the other forces – political within countries, geopolitical between countries, natural (droughts, floods and pandemics) and technological (most importantly, AI) – that together are causing what Dalio calls the 'Overall Big Cycle' changes in the world order. By listening to this book, you will improve your understanding of what's happening now and what to do about it.

'This book is a gift to humanity . . . Ray provides a solution to what is the biggest and most certain threat to our prosperity' Henry M. Paulson Jr.

'An invaluable resource for policymakers, investors, and citizens' Lawrence H. Summers

©2025 Ray Dalio (P)2025 Simon & Schuster UK

Critic reviews

'Everything Ray Dalio writes is compelling reading for the investor and the policymaker. This is an excellent and bracing study of one of the toughest and most dangerous set of policy risks, adding to his already valuable work on what drives the rise and demise of markets, economies and empires.' (Timothy Geithner, former Secretary of the Treasury)

'Ray Dalio is issuing an exceedingly important warning about how countries go broke, how that pertains to the U.S., and what needs to be done to change course. His nonpartisan insights are grounded in experience and analysis – let’s hope every lawmaker reads this book before they consider voting to add even another dollar to the national debt.' (Maya MacGuineas, President of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget)

'There’s so much going on in the world right now, and Ray is my go-to voice for understanding what it all means. His new book is a must-read' (Tony Robbins, #1 New York Times bestselling author, global entrepreneur, investor, philanthropist and the world's #1 life and business strategist)

The Big Debt Cycle (this is the backbone)

The Big Debt Cycle (this is the backbone)

Countries follow a repeating pattern:

Borrow → grow
Borrow more → boom
Debt explodes → pressure builds
Money printing → inflation
Devaluation or crisis

👉 It’s not random. It’s predictable behavior at scale.