Intelligence and Surprise Attack

Failure and Success from Pearl Harbor to 9/11 and Beyond

By: Erik J. Dahl

Narrated by: John N. Gully

How can the United States avoid a future surprise attack on the scale of 9/11 or Pearl Harbor in an era when such devastating attacks can come not only from nation states but also from terrorist groups or cyber enemies?

Intelligence and Surprise Attack examines why surprise attacks often succeed even though, in most cases, warnings are available beforehand. Erik J. Dahl challenges the conventional wisdom about intelligence failure, which holds that attacks succeed because important warnings get lost amid noise or because intelligence officials lack the imagination and collaboration to connect the dots of available information. Comparing cases of intelligence failure with intelligence success, Dahl finds that the key to success is not more imagination or better analysis but better acquisition of precise, tactical-level intelligence combined with the presence of decision makers who are willing to listen to and act on the warnings they receive from their intelligence staff.

The book offers a new understanding of classic cases of conventional and terrorist attacks such as Pearl Harbor, the Battle of Midway, and the bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. The book also presents a comprehensive analysis of the intelligence picture before the 9/11 attacks, making use of new information available since the publication of the 9/11 Commission Report and challenging some of that report's findings.

The book is published by Georgetown University Press.

©2013 Georgetown University Press (P)2015 Redwood Audiobooks

Critic reviews

"A seminal work of original scholarship...should be a part of every community and academic library Security Studies & Intelligence collection." ( Midwest Book Review)

"Erik Dahl's Intelligence and Surprise Attack reflects the experience of a practitioner and the rigor of a scholar. It is a serious work that deserves attention in the world of ideas and the world of action." (Thomas G. Mahnken, U.S. Naval War College)

Extremely Thorough and Engrossing

This was an extremely detailed timeline of surprise attacks dating from Pearl Harbor to the terrorist attacks of 9/11. It discusses the intelligence factor of these attacks, whether intelligence dropped the ball or was missed entirely or not acted on even though there may have been advanced warning.

While the audiobook was incredibly good, at times it was a little tedious. That doesn't take away from my five stars though because it was informative and did pose some very interesting facts. One of the earlier points made was concerning the intel surrounding Pearl Harbor. My question is if they did indeed know this was an imminent threat, what could have been done to prevent it aside from evacuation. I'm unsure whether or not we had the proper technology to have stopped it. I just don't know.

I also thought the timeline of events building up to 9/11 was very interesting. Overall, I thought this was a great audiobook and would definitely recommend it for anyone interested in this subject. Erik J. Dahl provides great examples and extensive research throughout the timeline regarding intel for all these events.

John N. Gully did a fantastic job narrating this audiobook. I liked the style he used, informative and reporter like which came across great. He spoke clearly and kept a steady pace. His work was flawless.

Audiobook received in exchange for unbiased review.

Contains excellent in-depth research and analysis.

While in-depth, the audiobook does not bog down. The narrative keeps clipping along throughout the chapters. Well presented, also.

Great narration

Correct pauses and emphasis on every chapter. Very interesting. I learned a lot of important things

Great scholarship, shaky on actionable theory

The overall theory is incredibly sound, professionally researched and argued. Simply put, policymakers and senior military leaders are much more likely to act on solid, credible tactical threat warning than on nebulous and nonspecific strategic threat warning. Converting that specific insight into an actionable process or culture to drive the intelligence community is a different story. I also applaud the author for dissecting the myths and popular wisdom around the ideas of "intelligence failure," "failure of imagination," and "intelligence reform" that are popularly bandied about as expert opinion. I am especially both personally and professionally grateful for the critique of the Congressional 9-11 Report and its conclusions, which I argue were driven far more by axe-grinding than people want to admit.

Repetitive, bad narration

Nice review of a variety of case studies, but the author was hugely repetitive and offered little actionable guidance for a way forward.

Terrible Narration. It was robotic and hard to listen to.