Around 10 PM JST, May 4th, 2025.

When a single word from Trump shakes the market, a quiet rule spreads among some on Wall Street: “Wait 72 hours.”

It’s more than just a trading tactic—it may be a silent act of resistance against a society ruled by instant reactions and thoughtless behavior.

In an age driven by social media,where “likes” come before questions, and reflex is valued over reflection,can trust in the future—what interest rates truly represent—still survive?

And if we begin to reclaim the value of thinking,what kind of future might humanity create?

＿＿＿

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2025年5月4日、日本時間の22時すぎ。トランプの一言が市場を揺らす時、ウォール街の一部では“72時間待て”というルールが静かに浸透。それは単なる投資戦略ではなく、「即時反応」と「思考停止」が支配する現代社会への無言の抵抗か。SNSによって加速された反応主義。問いを立てる前に「いいね」が押され、思考よりもリアクションが評価される時代──そこに、未来への信頼（＝金利）は存在できるのか？「思考することの価値」の復活は人類未来になにをもたらすのか。

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Around 10 PM JST, May 4th, 2025.

When a single word from Trump shakes the market, a quiet rule spreads among some on Wall Street: “Wait 72 hours.”

It’s more than just a trading tactic—
it may be a silent act of resistance against a society ruled by instant reactions and thoughtless behavior.

In an age driven by social media,
where “likes” come before questions, and reflex is valued over reflection,
can trust in the future—what interest rates truly represent—still survive?

And if we begin to reclaim the value of thinking,
what kind of future might humanity create?

Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.
However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.

Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?
Or is it the calm before an avalanche?
What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?

＿＿＿

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2025年5月2日、16時すぎ。日経平均は36,831円と1%上昇し、リスクオンムードで週末を迎える。しかし個別株の値下がり、金価格は再上昇、そして億単位規模のファープット購入──米国との関税交渉が不透明なまま終わり、トランプ政権が債券市場が落ち着いた今、再度揺さぶりをかけてくる可能性も。“穏やかな今”は、リスクオン相場の序章か。それとも雪崩の前触れなのか。表層的リスクオンの下に眠るリスクオフ要因はなにか。

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＿＿＿

Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.
However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.

Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?
Or is it the calm before an avalanche?
What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?

On May 1st, 2025, the market may look calm on the surface, but instability is quietly building underneath.

U.S. GDP posted negative growth, while the Trump camp continues its pressure campaign with tariff threats and Fed criticism—destabilizing the U.S. bond market.Meanwhile, Japan’s JGB VIX has dropped sharply, and even gold—traditionally seen as a safe haven—is falling, leaving investors with nowhere to hide in a risk-off scenario.The key trigger events today: the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and rate announcement, and tariff negotiations between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and the U.S. Treasury.From an earnings (EPS) perspective, fundamentals remain weak, raising the question:Where is the Nikkei headed next?

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2025年5月2日、日本時間午前8時37分。日経平均株価は前日比1.1%上昇し、36,452円で引けた。夜間取引では一時3万7千円を突破する場面もあり、表面的には「強い相場」が演出。日銀の金利据え置き、為替の急騰（ドル円145円）、アメリカの債券市場の落ち着き、金価格の調整といったマクロ的要素を踏まえつつ、市場の「リスクオンムード」に。「GW祝日・低流動性・高ボラティリティ」が重なるタイミングでこのリスクオンに乗るべきか。

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May 2, 2025, 8:37 AM JST.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,452 yen, up 1.1% from the previous day. In overnight trading, it briefly surpassed the 37,000 yen mark, giving the impression of a "strong market" on the surface.

With the Bank of Japan holding rates steady, the yen weakening sharply to 145 against the dollar, U.S. bond markets calming, and gold entering a correction phase, the overall macro environment seems to support a "risk-on" mood.

But with Golden Week holidays, low market liquidity, and elevated volatility all overlapping, the question remains: Should we really ride this risk-on rally?

On May 1st, 2025, the market may look calm on the surface, but instability is quietly building underneath.
U.S. GDP posted negative growth, while the Trump camp continues its pressure campaign with tariff threats and Fed criticism—destabilizing the U.S. bond market.
Meanwhile, Japan’s JGB VIX has dropped sharply, and even gold—traditionally seen as a safe haven—is falling, leaving investors with nowhere to hide in a risk-off scenario.
The key trigger events today: the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and rate announcement, and tariff negotiations between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and the U.S. Treasury.
From an earnings (EPS) perspective, fundamentals remain weak, raising the question:
Where is the Nikkei headed next?

＿＿＿

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2025年5月1日、相場は一見穏やかに見えるが、その内実は不安定さを増している。米国GDPはマイナス成長、トランプ陣営は関税とFRB批判を重ね、アメリカの国債市場は不安定化。一方で、日本のJGB VIXは急低下。安全資産とされる金価格も下落し、リスクオフ時の「逃げ場」が見当たらない状況に。トリガーイベントは日銀会合と金利発表、加藤財務大臣と米財務省の関税交渉。企業業績（EPS）のモメンタムの観点でもファンダメンタルズは弱く、日経平均はどこを目指すか。

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＿＿＿

On May 1st, 2025, the market may look calm on the surface, but instability is quietly building underneath.
U.S. GDP posted negative growth, while the Trump camp continues its pressure campaign with tariff threats and Fed criticism—destabilizing the U.S. bond market.
Meanwhile, Japan’s JGB VIX has dropped sharply, and even gold—traditionally seen as a safe haven—is falling, leaving investors with nowhere to hide in a risk-off scenario.
The key trigger events today: the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and rate announcement, and tariff negotiations between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and the U.S. Treasury.
From an earnings (EPS) perspective, fundamentals remain weak, raising the question:
Where is the Nikkei headed next?