Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.
However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.

Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?
Or is it the calm before an avalanche?
What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?

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2025年5月2日、16時すぎ。日経平均は36,831円と1%上昇し、リスクオンムードで週末を迎える。しかし個別株の値下がり、金価格は再上昇、そして億単位規模のファープット購入──米国との関税交渉が不透明なまま終わり、トランプ政権が債券市場が落ち着いた今、再度揺さぶりをかけてくる可能性も。“穏やかな今”は、リスクオン相場の序章か。それとも雪崩の前触れなのか。表層的リスクオンの下に眠るリスクオフ要因はなにか。

メルマガ登録はこちらから：（⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribepage.io/ni225op⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠）　

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Around 4 PM on May 2, 2025.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 36,831, up 1%, wrapping up the week in what appeared to be a risk-on mood.
However, a closer look reveals a different story: individual stocks declined, gold prices rebounded, and there was a large-scale purchase of far out-of-the-money put options worth over 100 million yen.

Meanwhile, trade negotiations with the U.S. ended without clarity, and with bond markets appearing calm again, there’s a chance the Trump administration could once more stir volatility.

Is this “quiet now” just the beginning of a genuine bull market?
Or is it the calm before an avalanche?
What risk-off signals lie hidden beneath this surface-level optimism?

On May 1st, 2025, the market may look calm on the surface, but instability is quietly building underneath.

U.S. GDP posted negative growth, while the Trump camp continues its pressure campaign with tariff threats and Fed criticism—destabilizing the U.S. bond market.Meanwhile, Japan’s JGB VIX has dropped sharply, and even gold—traditionally seen as a safe haven—is falling, leaving investors with nowhere to hide in a risk-off scenario.The key trigger events today: the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting and rate announcement, and tariff negotiations between Japan’s Finance Minister Kato and the U.S. Treasury.From an earnings (EPS) perspective, fundamentals remain weak, raising the question:Where is the Nikkei headed next?

＿＿＿

Free Weekly Newsletter

Sign up here：（⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠https://subscribepage.io/ni225op⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠）