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Chancing It
- The Laws of Chance and What They Mean for You
- Narrado por: Jeff Cummings
- Duración: 9 h y 55 m
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Chancing It
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Over the years, some very smart people have thought they understood the rules of chance - only to fail dismally. Whether you call it probability, risk, or uncertainty, the workings of chance often defy common sense. Fortunately, advances in math and science have revealed the laws of chance, and understanding those laws can help in your everyday life.
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- How to understand and even predict coincidences
- When an insurance policy is worth having
- Why "expert" predictions are often misleading
- How to tell when a scientific claim is a breakthrough or baloney
- When it makes sense to place a bet on anything from sports to stock markets
A groundbreaking introduction to the power of probability, Chancing It will sharpen your decision-making and maximize your luck.
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Great book! Not a great audiobook.
- De rrwright en 05-30-18
De: Judea Pearl, y otros
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The Great Mental Models
- General Thinking Concepts
- De: Shane Parrish
- Narrado por: Shane Parrish
- Duración: 3 h y 23 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,603
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 1,331
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,312
The Great Mental Models: General Thinking Concepts is the first book in The Great Mental Models series designed to upgrade your thinking with the best, most useful and powerful tools so you always have the right one on hand. This volume details nine of the most versatile all-purpose mental models you can use right away to improve your decision making, your productivity, and how clearly you see the world.
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2 out of 5 stars
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A dissapointing debut
- De Peter en 04-14-19
De: Shane Parrish
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Forecast
- What Physics, Meteorology, and the Natural Sciences Can Teach Us About Economics
- De: Mark Buchanan
- Narrado por: Fleet Cooper
- Duración: 10 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 33
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
Picture an early scene from The Wizard of Oz: Dorothy hurries home as a tornado gathers in what was once a clear Kansas sky. Hurriedly, she seeks shelter in the storm cellar under the house, but, finding it locked, takes cover in her bedroom. We all know how that works out for her.Many investors these days are a bit like Dorothy, putting their faith in something as solid and trustworthy as a house (or, say, real estate). But market disruptions - storms - seem to arrive without warning, leaving us little time to react.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Good Contrarian Book
- De J. Sterz en 04-18-17
De: Mark Buchanan
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Mindware
- Tools for Smart Thinking
- De: Richard E. Nisbett
- Narrado por: Joe Barrett
- Duración: 10 h y 17 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 509
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 434
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 427
Many scientific and philosophical ideas are so powerful that they can be applied to our lives at home, work, and school to help us think smarter and more effectively about our behavior and the world around us. Surprisingly, many of these ideas remain unknown to most of us. In Mindware, the world-renowned psychologist Richard Nisbett presents these ideas in clear and accessible detail, offering a tool kit for better thinking and wiser decisions.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Sound scientific advice on how to live your life
- De Neuron en 08-26-15
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Future Babble
- Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway
- De: Dan Gardner
- Narrado por: Walter Dixon
- Duración: 11 h y 1 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 57
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 38
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 37
In Future Babble, award-winning journalist Dan Gardner presents landmark research debunking the whole expert prediction industry and explores our obsession with the future. The truth is that experts are about as accurate as dart-throwing monkeys.
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2 out of 5 stars
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Future Babble Babble
- De Karen en 05-04-11
De: Dan Gardner
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Seeing What Others Don't
- The Remarkable Ways We Gain Insights
- De: Gary Klein
- Narrado por: Christopher Lane
- Duración: 9 h
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 382
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 338
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 336
Insights—like Darwin's understanding of the way evolution actually works, and Watson and Crick's breakthrough discoveries about the structure of DNA-can change the world. We also need insights into the everyday things that frustrate and confuse us so that we can more effectively solve problems and get things done. Yet we know very little about when, why, or how insights are formed—or what blocks them. In Seeing What Others Don't, renowned cognitive psychologist Gary Klein unravels the mystery.
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3 out of 5 stars
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Not enough actionable ideas
- De Blair en 02-24-15
De: Gary Klein
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Expert Political Judgment
- How Good is it? How can We Know?
- De: Philip E. Tetlock
- Narrado por: Anthony Haden Salerno
- Duración: 9 h y 48 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 103
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Narración:3.5 out of 5 stars 91
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 90
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This audiobook fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts. Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Five-star book, one-star reading
- De Christian Tarsney en 01-23-19
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The Money Formula
- Dodgy Finance, Pseudo Science, and How Mathematicians Took Over the Markets
- De: Paul Wilmott, David Orrell
- Narrado por: Gavin Osborn
- Duración: 8 h y 45 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 31
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Narración:5 out of 5 stars 30
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 30
The Money Formula takes you inside the engine room of the global economy to explore the little-understood world of quantitative finance, and show how the future of our economy rests on the backs of this all-but-impenetrable industry. Written not from a post-crisis perspective - but from a preventative point of view - this book traces the development of financial derivatives from bonds to credit default swaps, and shows how mathematical formulas went beyond pricing to expand their use to the point where they dwarfed the real economy.
De: Paul Wilmott, y otros
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Super Crunchers
- Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart
- De: Ian Ayres
- Narrado por: Michael Kramer
- Duración: 7 h y 34 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 850
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 273
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 275
Today, number crunching affects your life in ways you might never imagine. In this lively and groundbreaking new audiobook, economist Ian Ayres shows how today's best and brightest organizations are analyzing massive databases at lightening speed to provide greater insights into human behavior. They are the Super Crunchers.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Great book on
- De Jon en 01-31-08
De: Ian Ayres
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Rigor Mortis
- How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions
- De: Richard Harris
- Narrado por: Joe Delafield
- Duración: 5 h y 56 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 117
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 100
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 99
American taxpayers spend $30 billion annually funding biomedical research, but over half of these studies can't be replicated due to poor experimental design, improper methods, and sloppy statistics. Bad science doesn't just hold back medical progress, it can sign the equivalent of a death sentence for terminal patients. In Rigor Mortis, Richard Harris explores these urgent issues with vivid anecdotes, personal stories, and interviews with the top biomedical researchers. We need to fix our dysfunctional biomedical system - before it's too late.
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5 out of 5 stars
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Eye opening introduction to biomedical R&D
- De Amazon Customer en 09-18-18
De: Richard Harris
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More Than You Know
- Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places
- De: Michael J. Mauboussin
- Narrado por: Sean Runnette
- Duración: 7 h y 27 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 207
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 178
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 176
Since its first publication, Michael J. Mauboussin's popular guide to wise investing has been translated into eight languages and has been named best business book by BusinessWeek and best economics book by Strategy+Business. Now updated to reflect current research and expanded to include new chapters on investment philosophy, psychology, and strategy and science as they pertain to money management.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Liked it better when it was written by Taleb
- De Ian en 11-24-18
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The Theory That Would Not Die
- How Bayes' Rule Cracked the Enigma Code, Hunted Down Russian Submarines, and Emerged Triumphant from Two Centuries of Controversy
- De: Sharon Bertsch McGrayne
- Narrado por: Laural Merlington
- Duración: 11 h y 51 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 484
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 407
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 407
Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. Sharon Bertsch McGrayne here explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Who is the intended audience?
- De Billy en 07-21-14
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Noise
- A Flaw in Human Judgment
- De: Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony, Cass R. Sunstein
- Narrado por: Jonathan Todd Ross
- Duración: 13 h y 28 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,389
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,130
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,119
From the best-selling author of Thinking, Fast and Slow, the co-author of Nudge, and the author of You Are About to Make a Terrible Mistake! comes Noise, a revolutionary exploration of why people make bad judgments, and how to control both noise and cognitive bias.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Disappointing
- De Z28 en 05-31-21
De: Daniel Kahneman, y otros
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The Art of Strategy
- A Game Theorist's Guide to Success in Business and Life
- De: Barry J. Nalebuff, Avinash K. Dixit
- Narrado por: Matthew Dudley
- Duración: 17 h y 2 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 311
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 267
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 265
Game theory means rigorous strategic thinking. It’s the art of anticipating your opponent’s next moves, knowing full well that your rival is trying to do the same thing to you. Though parts of game theory involve simple common sense, much is counterintuitive, and it can only be mastered by developing a new way of seeing the world. Using a diverse array of rich case studies - from pop culture, TV, movies, sports, politics, and history - the authors show how nearly every business and personal interaction has a game-theory component to it.
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1 out of 5 stars
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Completely misleading title
- De Motorjaw en 01-28-15
De: Barry J. Nalebuff, y otros
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Freedom Evolves
- De: Daniel C. Dennett
- Narrado por: Robert Blumenfeld
- Duración: 11 h y 21 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 134
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Narración:4 out of 5 stars 112
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 111
Can there be freedom and free will in a deterministic world? Renowned philosopher Daniel Dennett emphatically answers "yes!" Using an array of provocative formulations, Dennett sets out to show how we alone among the animals have evolved minds that give us free will and morality. Weaving a richly detailed narrative, Dennett explains in a series of strikingly original arguments - drawing upon evolutionary biology, cognitive neuroscience, economics, and philosophy - that far from being an enemy of traditional explorations of freedom, morality, and meaning, the evolutionary perspective can be an indispensable ally.
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5 out of 5 stars
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I knew I was going to like this book
- De Gary en 05-30-14
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Adapt
- Why Success Always Starts with Failure
- De: Tim Harford
- Narrado por: Jonathan Keeble
- Duración: 9 h y 53 m
- Versión completa
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General4 out of 5 stars 273
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 219
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Historia4 out of 5 stars 218
In this groundbreaking work, Tim Harford shows us a new and inspiring approach to solving the most pressing problems in our lives. Harford argues that today’s challenges simply cannot be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions; the world has become far too unpredictable and profoundly complex. Instead, we must adapt. Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with compelling stories of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial-and-error....
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3 out of 5 stars
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Hidden Agenda
- De Lawrence en 05-20-13
De: Tim Harford
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The Master Algorithm
- How the Quest for the Ultimate Learning Machine Will Remake Our World
- De: Pedro Domingos
- Narrado por: Mel Foster
- Duración: 13 h y 3 m
- Versión completa
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General4.5 out of 5 stars 1,667
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Narración:4.5 out of 5 stars 1,425
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Historia4.5 out of 5 stars 1,419
Under the aegis of machine learning in our data-driven machine age, computers are programming themselves and learning about - and solving - an extraordinary range of problems, from the mundane to the most daunting. Today it is machine learning programs that enable Amazon and Netflix to predict what users will like, Apple to power Siri's ability to understand voices, and Google to pilot cars.
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4 out of 5 stars
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Great book, irritating narration
- De N. G. PEPIN en 09-24-15
De: Pedro Domingos
Lo que los oyentes dicen sobre Chancing It
Calificaciones medias de los clientesReseñas - Selecciona las pestañas a continuación para cambiar el origen de las reseñas.
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Total2 out of 5 stars
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Ejecución2 out of 5 stars
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Historia1 out of 5 stars
- L. Ferguson
- 12-17-21
not what I thought it was
You will only find this book enjoyable if you like to calculate statistics. It doesn't impart any real knowledge on how to benefit from chance.
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