Happy Thanksgiving from Markets with Megan! 🦃

Today, Megan Horneman shares fun, surprising, and meaningful economic insights you can bring to your holiday table, from falling turkey prices to the global equity rally that continues to break record after record.

You’ll learn:
🍗 Why the cost of Thanksgiving dinner is actually down 5% this year
📉 How supermarkets helped push turkey prices lower
📈 What we’re thankful for in the markets — including diversification, international outperformance, and a broadening rally
🛍️ Why consumers may still carry the holiday season with a trillion dollars in expected spending
💼 Why having full economic data back is a reason to celebrate!

Pull up a chair, enjoy your holiday, and get a quick snapshot of what’s happening across markets, consumers, and inflation.

🔔 Subscribe for more timely market insights.
🌐 Podcast archive: https://marketswithmegan.fm

💼 Learn more about Verdence Capital Advisors: https://verdence.com

#MarketsWithMegan #Thanksgiving2025 #EconomicUpdate #TurkeyPrices #HolidaySpending #StockMarket #Inflation #ConsumerTrends #VerdenceCapital #MarketInsights

https://youtu.be/mxIdMP0R6u8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The latest housing market data is in and the signals are anything but clear. In today’s episode, Megan Horneman breaks down the mixed messages coming from home sales, inventory levels, and mortgage rates.

Are consumers finally pulling back? Are higher interest rates starting to bite? And what does this mean for markets as we head into the end of the year?

Megan explains what the data really means for buyers, sellers, and investors, and why the housing sector may be more vulnerable than it appears.

🔔 Subscribe for more real-time market insights.
🌐 Full podcast archive: https://marketswithmegan.fm

💼 Learn more about Verdence Capital Advisors: https://verdence.com

#MarketsWithMegan #HousingMarket #EconomicUpdate #InterestRates #MortgageRates #RealEstateData #ConsumerTrends #Inflation #StockMarket #FinanceNews #VerdenceCapital

https://youtu.be/Pf0Jruk1xQM

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Consumer confidence weakens even as lagging retail sales look resilient, pointing to a softer holiday season and rising expectations for a December rate cut. We connect the drop in expectations, a softer jobs signal, and why equities still rallied on policy hopes.

• November consumer confidence weakens versus expectations
• Expectations component hits lowest level since 2013 ex-April drop
• Inflation expectations stable but elevated at 4.8 percent
• Jobs plentiful minus hard to get index declines
• Lagging retail sales contrasted with timelier confidence data
• Market pricing shifts to December rate cut odds above 80 percent
• Equities respond to easier policy hopes for 2026 growth
• Takeaways for spending, hiring, and investment posture

If you like this podcast, please subscribe, hit that alarm bell, share it with friends, family, or colleagues.

https://youtu.be/65mYNJsJuFM

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The consumer mood just blinked. We dig into fresh September retail sales and find the signal beneath the noise: core retail sales slipped, the steepest monthly drop since April, and the softness is concentrated in discretionary goods. Autos, electronics, clothing, sporting goods, and even non-store retail retreated, while health and personal care inched higher and restaurants kept humming. That split paints a clear picture of priorities shifting from goods to experiences, with essentials holding steady as households trim wants and protect cash flow.

We walk through what “core retail sales” really means, why economists strip out volatile categories, and how this measure flows directly into goods spending in GDP. From there, we map the category-level winners and losers and explain why dining out refuses to slow even as shoppers delay upgrades and hunt for value online. Using our discretionary spending index, we gauge year-over-year momentum at roughly 3.3 percent—below the long-run average, but not signaling a collapse. The theme is prudence, not panic, and it’s changing how retailers plan promotions, manage inventory, and compete for share.

Looking ahead to the holidays, the retail federation’s outlook hovers around a trillion dollars in spend, essentially flat with last year. Flat doesn’t mean dull—it means a fiercer battle for wallet share. We outline where pricing power still exists, how gift cards and private labels may rise, and why logistics and convenience could be decisive for converting cautious shoppers. If you follow consumer trends, retail strategy, or market signals, this breakdown offers a practical roadmap for the weeks ahead and the implications for growth, margins, and sentiment.

Enjoyed the analysis? Subscribe to Markets with Megan, share this episode with a friend, and leave a quick review to help others find the show.

https://youtu.be/9BIHQACOwo8

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The September jobs report finally arrived after weeks of private data during the U.S. government shutdown, and it delivered a meaningful surprise. The U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs, far above expectations, even as the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, the highest level since 2021. In this episode of Markets with Megan, we break down what the mixed labor picture means for the Federal Reserve, inflation, and market momentum heading into the December FOMC meeting.

Find out...
• Where job gains were concentrated (health care, leisure & hospitality)
• Which sectors showed weakness (professional services, temporary help, manufacturing)
• Why female labor-force participation is rising
• How the Fed may interpret this report as shutdown-delayed data starts flooding in
• Why tariff-driven inflation effects are still unknown
• How markets are reacting — including the impact of NVIDIA’s strong earnings

With government data finally restarting, this report sets the stage for a busy stretch of economic releases and a pivotal Fed decision.

📈 Listen in for a clear, calm breakdown of what today’s numbers actually mean for investors.

👉 Catch past episodes at MarketsWithMegan.fm
👉 Subscribe for weekly, data-driven market insights

https://youtu.be/r9KhRcT1L18

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Fear has a way of compressing lofty stories into hard numbers, and that’s exactly what’s playing out across U.S. markets. We open with a clean read on why volatility jumped to levels last seen around April’s tariff shock, then connect the dots between stretched forward P/Es, softening consumer trends, and a Federal Reserve that can’t quite agree on timing for rate cuts. It’s a live stress test of equity risk premia, and the results aren’t evenly distributed.

We break down the five forces pushing risk lower: valuations near late-1990s territory, big tech’s need to prove that AI spend will convert to durable earnings, fresh signs of a consumer slowdown, split Fed rhetoric dragging cut odds down, and a sharp risk-off move that’s cracking momentum trades from AI leaders to Bitcoin. Along the way, we assess where the damage is showing up first—Nasdaq, small caps, and mid-cap growth—while noting how Treasuries and gold are absorbing flight-to-quality flows. The takeaway: when the cost of capital is uncertain and growth cools, the market asks harder questions about price and payoff.

We also set the near-term roadmap. Nvidia’s earnings will act as a proxy for AI demand, supply constraints, and margin resilience, while the September jobs report should reset the labor and inflation narrative that anchors rate expectations. If you’re navigating this tape, we share how to think about quality balance sheets, cash flow durability, and position sizing when volatility rises and correlations bite. Subscribe to stay ahead of the data, share this with a friend who’s watching the VIX, and leave a quick review to tell us where you see the next inflection.

https://youtu.be/7N_-Iu5Vmlc

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Washington is back open, and the market’s attention snaps from headlines to hard numbers. We walk through what the end of the longest U.S. government shutdown historically means for the dollar, the S&P 500, and growth, then test those patterns against today’s mixed signals. You’ll hear why equities often hold up during political dysfunction, how reopenings can spark a modest relief bid, and where this cycle may differ after a 2% S&P climb during the closure.

From there, we focus on the data gap and the timing shock that shutdowns create. Personal spending can dip when federal workers miss paychecks, then rebound with back pay, which muddies month‑to‑month readings without changing the broader trend. With agencies back online, the calendar matters again: the September jobs report slated for Thursday the 20th becomes the hinge for labor momentum, wage growth, and inflation pressures. We lay out what a soft payroll print versus a hot wage surprise could mean for risk sentiment, yields, and the U.S. dollar.

Policy takes center stage as we unpack shifting odds for a December rate cut. Before the closure, markets priced near‑certainty; after a run of mixed private data, those odds slid toward 40%. We argue the sensible path is a Fed hold while officials wait for cleaner evidence, preserving optionality and avoiding an unnecessary easing that could reignite inflation. For portfolios, that tilt favors quality equities with durable cash flows, selective duration in fixed income with an eye on labor softness, and a pragmatic view on the dollar that tracks the growth‑inflation mix.

Subscribe, share with a friend who watches the data tape, and tell us: should the Fed hold or cut at the next meeting? Your take helps shape where we go next.

https://youtu.be/FL379U6tGQk

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The October ISM Services index is back in expansion territory—coming in above 50—with six out of ten categories rising and new orders leading the charge (likely boosted by data-center demand in the commentary). Business activity jumped, employment is still in contraction but improved, and we’re not seeing shrinking headcount alongside a backlog—hinting at some labor-market equilibrium.

The catch: prices paid just moved to their highest level since October 2022. That’s the inflation channel the Fed watches closely. With ADP showing a modest October improvement and the labor market not collapsing, elevated input costs could feed into CPI/PCE once those reports finally print after the record-long government shutdown.

In this episode:

• ISM Services pops back above 50 (expansion)
• New orders strength—data-center demand in the mix
• Employment still soft, but stabilizing
• Prices paid spike—potential inflation bleed-through
• What this combo could mean for the Fed’s next steps

Subscribe, tap the bell, and share. For past episodes and more, visit marketswithmegan.fm.

https://youtu.be/xvqGfsWRwAA

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...