We unpack October’s ADP payroll report during the record government shutdown and parse where hiring is actually happening. Large firms added jobs while small and mid-sized businesses shed workers, with most gains tied to services and AI-driven spending.

• October ADP report shows 42,000 private payroll gain
• Caution that one month does not set a trend
• Hiring concentrated in large employers, 500 plus
• Small businesses shed jobs in five of the last six months
• Service-producing sectors lead gains, AI spend likely a factor
• Limited official data due to the shutdown constrains visibility
• Brief wrap and where to find past episodes

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

Factories are feeling the squeeze, but one surprising shift may be a quiet win for anyone watching inflation. We dig into October’s ISM manufacturing report at a time when the government shutdown has muted official data, and we pull out the signals that matter: a weaker headline driven by softness in production and inventories, a prices paid index that fell to its lowest level of the year, and export orders that show a pulse even as supply frictions re-emerge.

We talk through what a drop in input costs could mean for the Federal Reserve’s inflation fight, and why the latest data doesn’t show tariffs driving a new wave of cost pressure. At the same time, we highlight a rise in backlogs and longer delivery times, the kinds of stress points we watched closely during the pandemic. Are these the first hints of renewed bottlenecks, or just monthly noise that will fade as logistics normalize? We explain how to read these components together so you can separate signal from static in a noisy market.

With production sagging, inventories lean, and exports firmer, the path ahead could split: either a cautious few months as managers stay defensive, or a restock bounce if orders stabilize. We map the indicators that will decide which path wins out, from follow-through in prices paid to confirmation in regional surveys and earnings commentary. If you want a clear, practical take on what the ISM is saying about growth, inflation, and risk, this breakdown gives you the context you need to stay ahead of the tape.

Enjoyed the episode? Subscribe, hit the alert, and share it with a friend who follows the economy. Then tell us: do you read the ISM as a soft patch or the start of a turn?

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Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...

The Federal Reserve finally cut rates but their tone shocked Wall Street. Megan Horneman breaks down what the Fed really said, why markets might be too confident about more cuts, and what this means for inflation and investors heading into year-end 2025.

With the government still shut down and data in short supply, this surprise twist from the Fed could change everything.

#MarketsWithMegan #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #StockMarket #Investing #Economy2025 #MarketUpdate #FedRateCut #GovernmentShutdown

https://youtu.be/5u6RVUpikjI

Disclaimer: material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the co...