Consumer Confident or Cautious? | S2 E098 | 11-25-25

Consumer confidence weakens even as lagging retail sales look resilient, pointing to a softer holiday season and rising expectations for a December rate cut. We connect the drop in expectations, a softer jobs signal, and why equities still rallied on policy hopes.

• November consumer confidence weakens versus expectations
• Expectations component hits lowest level since 2013 ex-April drop
• Inflation expectations stable but elevated at 4.8 percent
• Jobs plentiful minus hard to get index declines
• Lagging retail sales contrasted with timelier confidence data
• Market pricing shifts to December rate cut odds above 80 percent
• Equities respond to easier policy hopes for 2026 growth
• Takeaways for spending, hiring, and investment posture

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