Copper Weekly returns with a role swap. With Mike away, Carlos Piñero, principal analyst on Benchmark’s copper team, takes the host’s chair and puts the questions to Albert. They cover record Chinese import premiums, a possible scrap stockpile hiding in China, copper slipping below $14,000/t as the AI narrative wobbles, and what is really behind Chile’s production slump.

In this episode:

Chinese Premiums Hit Multi-Year Highs - The standard import premium into China has topped $200/t, its highest since 2017. Albert explains how hand-to-mouth buying, lingering logistics backlogs, scrap invoicing problems and record US-bound flows are combining to create sudden bursts of tightness.

A Hidden Scrap Stockpile? - China’s tighter invoicing rules, aimed at tax rebate abuse, have also snarled legitimate scrap trading. Albert explains why that scrap may be building up rather than disappearing, how its eventual release could loosen the market, and why it’s hard to size compared with the far more visible stockpile in the US.

Copper Dips Below $14,000/t as the AI Story Wobbles - Pressure on AI-linked equities has pulled copper lower, and some voices at LME Week questioned how much AI really matters for copper demand. Albert also looks at how the midterms and data centre pushback could shape the outlook, and why a Section 232 tariff doesn’t need Congress.

An Opaque Market - With more than 1.5Mt sitting in the US, possible hidden stock in China, and TCs around minus $250/t (with some trader deals far lower), Albert and Carlos discuss why so many of today’s drivers are geopolitical rather than economic, and why history offers little guidance. One striking stat: the gap between this year’s highest and lowest TC index prices is larger than the entire range recorded before 2026.

What’s Going On in Chile? - Following Cochilco’s production downgrade, Carlos explains why weather only tells part of the story and why several large mines struggling at once has driven the slump. He also explains why he stays optimistic on Chile’s longer-term recovery, and why the DRC’s growth keeps flying under the radar.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes. Albert is heading to Shanghai for CESCO, so there may be a short gap before the next recording.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

Copper Weekly returns from the tail end of LME Week. In summary; plenty of good gossip, but fewer answers than usual. With US tariffs and the concentrate benchmark both unresolved, Mike and Albert unpack why the market is waiting for someone else to move first.

In this episode:

A Market Waiting to Decide - Albert explains why this LME Week felt unusually inconclusive. The key decisions on US tariffs and annual treatment charges are still ahead, European buyers are reluctant to commit tonnage, and many participants see no reason to act before the US midterms or CESCO Shanghai in three weeks.

Will There Be a Benchmark? - With spot TCs around minus $250/t, the question has shifted from where the benchmark will settle to whether one will be agreed at all. Albert discusses the uncertainty over who will lead the Chinese smelter side, why a settlement in the minus hundreds may not travel outside China, and why acid prices add another swing factor for smelter economics.

Side Terms and Murky Deals - Gold payables, copper payability, acid buybacks and tolling arrangements could all shape what a headline TC really means. Albert explains why that makes next year’s deals harder to compare, and what it means for price reporting agencies and spot-linked contracts.

The Tariff Scenarios - Albert shares a rumour circulating about an August meeting with the US Department of Commerce, along with the two very different ways it has been interpreted. He also covers the push to land material in the US before January, expectations of record October imports, and a US stock build now estimated at 1.8Mt or more by year end.

What Happens Next Depends on One Decision - Albert walks through how a confirmed 15% rising to 30% tariff, versus a flat tariff or none at all, would play out for the CME-LME arbitrage, European premiums and the copper price. He also explains why concentrate and cathode negotiations are tied together by the same uncertainty.

Looking Ahead - The US midterms are next week, with CESCO Shanghai to follow, and Albert signs off with a reminder to expect the unexpected.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com

Copper Weekly returns with a longer-than-usual pre-LME Week special. Mike and Albert work through the five themes dominating meetings in London and set to shape conversations across LME Week: record-low treatment charges, European cathode premiums, US tariff uncertainty, long-term supply gap fears, and the question hanging over every meeting, why copper is still so expensive.

In this episode:

Treatment Charges in Free Fall - Spot TCs have dropped to around minus $240/t, with some deals now done at a discount to the index. Albert explains the smelter overcapacity behind it, Indonesia’s export restrictions, and why Benchmark puts the marginal smelter’s breakeven well above that level. With annual benchmark talks about to begin, he also looks at whether a split or broken benchmark system is on the cards, and why side terms such as gold payables could matter as much as the headline number.

Cathode Premiums - Aurubis’s 2027 European premium has landed at $347/t. Albert explains why he wasn’t surprised, why last year’s contract rounds favoured buyers who secured units early, and what Codelco’s offer and Asian premiums might look like when Chinese buyers have been far less accepting of high levels.

Tariff Uncertainty and the US Stock Build - Albert forecasts US cathode imports above 800kt this year, adding to an estimated 1.7 to 1.8Mt of stock built up since the current administration took office. The conversation covers whether imports slow into 2027, whether some of that stock is genuinely new or simply repositioned from elsewhere in the supply chain, and why timing around the US midterms matters.

Fears of a Supply Gap - Albert argues the supply gap has always been a theoretical construct rather than a forecast deficit, and explains why the DRC, Chinese investment, scrap and weak Chinese construction demand all complicate the shortage narrative. He also gives a sceptical view of some AI demand forecasts.

Why Is the Price So High? - Benchmark’s forecasts sit below some recent bank views, with 2026 averaging around $13,700/t and a lower figure expected next year. Albert explains the fundamentals-led case, while acknowledging that the tariff could push prices either way.

The Week Ahead - With the LME in backwardation and the third Wednesday of the month approaching, Albert flags the potential for volatility during LME Week itself.

New episodes every week. Follow and rate the show, and keep the questions coming for future episodes.

Copper Weekly is produced by Benchmark, the leading independent price reporting agency and market intelligence provider for critical minerals and energy transition metals.

Benchmark’s Copper Service delivers in‑depth analysis of prices, trade flows, supply and demand fundamentals, smelter and mine dynamics, and regional physical markets – helping producers, traders, consumers and investors understand what is really driving the copper market.

To learn more about Benchmark’s copper coverage, explore our data and analysis, or to arrange a demonstration of the service, visit: www.benchmarkminerals.com/copper

You can also receive Benchmark’s free fortnightly copper newsletter, featuring market commentary and key developments, by signing up here: www.benchmarkminerals.com/newsletters

For questions about this episode, or to speak directly with our copper analysts and team, contact us at: copper@benchmarkminerals.com