“In general, Brazilians are not very happy with this competition,” says pollster Felipe Nunes ahead of the October 4 presidential first round. With voters again facing a choice between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva on the left and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro on the right, the Quaest CEO talks to AS/COA’s Luisa Leme about how an increasingly informed electorate worries over recurrent pocketbook issues and a sweeping corruption crisis that has ensnared figures across the political spectrum.

The conversation covers Lula’s struggles to sell voters on affordability and Bolsonaro’s efforts to moderate the firebrand style of his father, jailed ex-President Jair Bolsonaro, as both candidates try win over independents without alienating their bases.

What will be the decisive factor in the race, per Nunes? Voter turnout. “If we see a 50-50 vote intention in the second round, what will make the difference is if you guarantee that your voters will be able to show up,” he said.

This episode was produced by Executive Producer Luisa Leme with support from Associate Producer Khalea Robertson. Carin Zissis is your host.

Stay up to date with AS/COA Online’s ongoing coverage of Brazil’s 2026 elections, https://www.as-coa.org/content/guide-2026-brazilian-elections including our poll tracker that features Quaest surveys. https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2026-presidential-election

And listen to our previous episodes with Felipe Nunes on the key issues that drove the 2022 election and that year’s Lula–Bolsonaro runoff.

If you enjoyed this episode, write us a review and subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. Send us feedback: latamfocus@as-coa.org
The music in the podcast is Paulo Bellinati's "Baião de gude” performed by Newman Oltman Guitar Duo and João Luiz for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society.

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.

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A regional rightward tilt, tariff tensions, and a more muscular U.S. foreign policy: geopolitical dynamics in the Americas are witnessing tectonic shifts. As we kickstart a new season of Latin America in Focus, we’re delving deep into how these shifts are affecting U.S. and Latin American perceptions of themselves, each other, and the world around them, bringing together conversations with experts who are surveying views across the hemisphere.

Ahead of November’s midterm elections in the United States, Pew Research Center’s Mark Hugo Lopez and Gabriel Piña talks with AS/COA Online’s Chase Harrison about why voter turnout among this fast-growing bloc will be decisive, with pocketbook issues top of mind and presidential approval rating slipping among Latino Trump voters.

Then, host Carin Zissis speaks with U.S–Mexico Foundation Managing Director Enrique Perret about the economic and security concerns shaping U.S. voter views on Mexico, and why Americans are increasingly wary of U.S. tariffs on Mexican goods, saying: “We now have 19 months with tariffs, and I think people are saying, ‘That’s enough. You used the tool, but now it’s affecting the prices of goods in America—the price of construction, vehicles, food, everything.’”

But Latin Americans are also shifting in their view of the world. International relations analyst Monica Hirst talks with AS/COA’s Luisa Leme about the AMLAT Radar, a survey of 10 Latin American countries supported by the Friedrich Ebert Foundation, saying: “You don't have a perception in the region that there are hegemonic powers in place,” adding that the region’s citizens instead have “pragmatic,” multipolar perspectives on foreign policy in which the United States, China, and Europe each play distinct roles.

This episode was produced by Executive Producer Luisa Leme and Associate Producer Khalea Robertson. Carin Zissis is your host.

Read the surveys referenced in this episode:

• Pew Center for Research on presidential approval ratings among U.S. Latinos and the relationship between party affiliation and ethnic self-identification;
• USMF quarterly surveys on U.S. voter attitudes towards the U.S.–Mexico relationship;
• The 2026 AMLAT Radar Survey.

If you enjoyed this episode, write us a review and subscribe on your podcast platform of choice. Send us feedback: latamfocus@as-coa.org

The music in the podcast is “Me Gusta Soñar” performed by C4 Trío for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society.

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.

Follow us on social media:
X: @ASCOA
Instagram: @ascoa
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ascoaonline/
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Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ASCOA/

This episode is a re-run of Ep.228, of January 29, 2026. Latin America in Focus is going on a Summer break and it will be back in September with more episodes. Stay tuned!

The Trump’s administration national security strategy was the talk of the foreign policy world late last year, not least of all because it renewed Washington’s focus on the Americas. But a few days later, China released its own policy paper focusing on Latin America and the Caribbean. But then the U.S. capture of Nicolás Maduro of January 3 upended the hemispheric chessboard.

Parsifal D’Sola Alvarado of the Andrés Bello Foundation for China and Latin America Research joined AS/COA Online’s Carin Zissis to talk about why this new era marks an end of what he calls “cheap ambiguity” for hemispheric countries figuring out how to juggle ties with the two great powers. He explains what we can glean from China’s reaction to U.S. moves in Venezuela; how countries such as Colombia, Argentina, and Mexico been adjusting their approach to Beijing; and why Latin America needs to get its own China strategy up and running.

Read D'Sola’s analysis on what the post-Maduro era means for Sino–Latin American ties: t.ly/l05Jh

Access other episodes of Latin America in Focus at www.as-coa.org/podcast and send us feedback at latamfocus@as-coa.org. Share and subscribe at Apple, Spotify, YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts.  

The music in the podcast was “Collector,” performed by Jorge Haro for Americas Society. Find out about upcoming concerts at musicoftheamericas.org. Share your love for Latin America: Join Americas Society. https://www.as-coa.org/membership Becoming a member gives you preferential access to music performances, art exhibitions, book events, our magazine Americas Quarterly, and more.

Opinions expressed in this podcast do not necessarily reflect those of Americas Society/Council of the Americas or its members.

Follow us on social media:
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