The collapse of US–Iran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—raising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover.

In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sides’ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points.

We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all.

Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US foreign policy, Iran, and regional security dynamics.

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While Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran continues to hold, Israel is now going after Hezbollah in Lebanon, putting the entire Middle East on edge. We are joined by David Daoud of the FDD to understand why Israel’s escalation in Lebanon was likely once the Iran front quietened, and why Hezbollah remains far harder to uproot than many assume.

We discuss the limits of decapitation strategies, Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanese Shiite society, the risk of a prolonged Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, and why Washington may see Hezbollah as a core threat without wanting direct US involvement. The conversation also explores the wider geopolitical fallout for Europe, NATO, and Israel’s standing in American politics as the war drags on.

David Daoud is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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Russia’s apparent momentum in Ukraine is misleading. As David Petraeus argues, it reflects adaptation and external support rather than lasting strength, while Ukraine’s innovation has been underestimated.

The war is also reshaping how conflicts are fought — with drones, decentralised tactics, and rapid adaptation replacing traditional military dominance. Ultimately, the outcome will depend less on the battlefield and more on Western unity and Europe’s economic backing, which remain decisive.

David Petraeus is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and ex-Director of the CIA.

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The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.

In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.

If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.

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The United States has deployed one of its largest military buildups in the Middle East in decades — and yet, nothing has happened. So why assemble overwhelming force if conflict was never inevitable?

In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin speaks with Con Coughlin, Defence and Foreign Affairs Editor at The Daily Telegraph, to unpack the real strategy behind America’s military pressure on Iran. We explore how Donald Trump is using military leverage to force a new nuclear deal, why Iran’s weakened regional position has shifted the balance, and how Tehran is relying on diplomacy, Russia, and China to survive.

This is a conversation about coercion, credibility, and why the most powerful military deployments are often designed not to be used — but to reshape the negotiating table.

Chapters

00:00 The Military Buildup and Its Implications

10:01 Iran's Current Position and Internal Dynamics

19:57 The Role of External Influences and Regional Dynamics

29:42 Future Scenarios: Engagement or Conflict?

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Summary

In this episode I engage Larissa Brown, the defence editor at The Times, to discuss the current state of geopolitics, defence dynamics, and the implications of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They explore insights from the Munich Security Conference, the UK's defence spending, military readiness, and the evolving threat posed by Russia. The conversation also delves into the US-UK defence relationship, public sentiment on military spending, and the challenges facing the UK military in terms of manpower and logistics. As they look ahead, they consider the impact of populism on European defence and the importance of collaboration among European nations.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Geopolitics and Defense Dynamics

02:38 Insights from the Munich Security Conference

05:41 Assessing the UK Military's Readiness

08:26 The Threat of Russia and Hybrid Warfare

11:22 UK's Defense Spending and Political Challenges

14:08 The US-UK Defense Relationship

16:43 European Strategic Autonomy and Cooperation

19:36 The Role of Drones in Modern Warfare

22:28 Joint Operations Against ISIS and Future Threats

25:02 The Future of UK Defense and European Relations

28:17 Looking Ahead: Key Global Events and Developments

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Summary

In this conversation, Edward Lucas discusses the ongoing war in Ukraine, the influence of Donald Trump on NATO and European defense, and the shifting dynamics of power in Europe. He emphasises the need for Europe to enhance its military autonomy and the importance of a united front against Russia. Lucas also addresses the concept of the 'shadow fleet' and the implications of European actions on Russia's strategic calculations. The discussion highlights the complexities of international relations and the necessity for Europe to adapt to changing geopolitical realities.

Chapters

00:00 Current State of Trilateral Talks

03:59 The Role of the United States in European Security

09:55 Europe's Defense Capabilities and Autonomy

15:47 The Shadow Fleet and European Responses

21:38 Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

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Summary

In this episode, Pyotr Kurzin engages with Trita Parsi, the Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, to discuss the evolving geopolitical landscape in Iran and the broader Middle East. They delve into the implications of the recent leadership changes in Iran, particularly following the death of President Raisi, and how this has affected the political dynamics within the country.

Parsi emphasizes the incompetence of the previous government and the ongoing protests, highlighting the deep-seated frustrations among the Iranian populace regarding economic mismanagement and political repression. The conversation also touches on the significant internet blackout in Iran, which has hindered communication and information flow, further complicating the situation.

Chapters

00:00 Introduction to Iran's Current Landscape

14:47 Leadership Changes and Public Sentiment

17:44 The Impact of Protests and Government Response

21:45 Internet Shutdown: A Sign of Desperation

24:34 Violence and the Role of the IRGC

27:28 Civil Liberties and Digital Isolation

29:55 Geopolitical Context and Regional Dynamics

37:32 The Future of Iran in a Changing Middle East

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