While Trump's fragile ceasefire with Iran continues to hold, Israel is now going after Hezbollah in Lebanon, putting the entire Middle East on edge. We are joined by David Daoud of the FDD to understand why Israel’s escalation in Lebanon was likely once the Iran front quietened, and why Hezbollah remains far harder to uproot than many assume.

We discuss the limits of decapitation strategies, Hezbollah’s deep roots in Lebanese Shiite society, the risk of a prolonged Israeli security zone in southern Lebanon, and why Washington may see Hezbollah as a core threat without wanting direct US involvement. The conversation also explores the wider geopolitical fallout for Europe, NATO, and Israel’s standing in American politics as the war drags on.

David Daoud is Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

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Russia’s apparent momentum in Ukraine is misleading. As David Petraeus argues, it reflects adaptation and external support rather than lasting strength, while Ukraine’s innovation has been underestimated.

The war is also reshaping how conflicts are fought — with drones, decentralised tactics, and rapid adaptation replacing traditional military dominance. Ultimately, the outcome will depend less on the battlefield and more on Western unity and Europe’s economic backing, which remain decisive.

David Petraeus is a retired U.S. Army four-star general, former commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Iraq and Afghanistan, and ex-Director of the CIA.

Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

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The conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel is entering a far more complex and dangerous phase than many expected.

In this conversation, I’m joined by Ali Vaez - Iran Project Director and Senior Adviser to the President of the International Crisis Group to examine what is actually happening behind the headlines. Why the war has shifted into a grinding war of attrition, why Iran’s leadership prepared for a long confrontation rather than a quick collapse, and how the balance of power inside Iran may now be shifting toward the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

We also discuss the growing divergence between U.S. and Israeli strategic objectives, the limits of military escalation, and the wider regional risks—from Kurdish separatism to the possibility of a broader regional conflict drawing in major powers.

If the fighting stops, it may only produce a fragile ceasefire, not a real resolution.

Read as well as listen as l overthink for you: https://substack.com/@pyotrskurzin

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