What Trump’s Blockade Really Means for the Iran War

The collapse of US–Iran negotiations highlights a deeper structural problem: escalation is now outpacing diplomacy. Following a high-level meeting in Islamabad that failed to produce any meaningful breakthrough, the United States has escalated by moving to blockade the Strait of Hormuz—raising serious questions about strategy, sustainability, and the risk of broader regional spillover.

In this episode, I speak with Ross Harrison about the strategic logic behind both sides’ actions. We analyse the role of coercive diplomacy, the limits of military pressure as a negotiating tool, and the increasing complexity of the conflict as Iran expands the theatre horizontally through proxies and regional pressure points.

We also explore whether the United States has a coherent theory of change, how Iran is leveraging asymmetric tactics to shape outcomes, and why the absence of a clear off-ramp may be the most dangerous factor of all.

Ross Harrison is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, specialising in US foreign policy, Iran, and regional security dynamics.

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