Global trade isn't ending. It's fracturing along geopolitical lines. And it's reshaping supply chains, technology systems, and the entire logistics landscape as we enter 2026.

The signals are unmistakable. Greenland threats. US-Europe tensions mounting. Trade wars escalating. This is no longer theoretical. Supply chain directors need to understand what's coming and how to prepare.

In this critical roundtable, Mike King brings together three leading voices to break down how US-China competition, tariff volatility, shifting trade blocs, and technology will reshape supply chains right now and through the year ahead.

Neil Shearing is Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age. He explains why we're not seeing deglobalization but rather a splintering of the global economy into competing US and China-led blocs. And why this matters far more than simple tariff rates.

Marc Levinson is an economic historian and author of Outside the Box. He challenges the bloc theory with real world examples of trade policy chaos. He reveals why mega-ships may become obsolete, what's really driving trade now (spoiler: AI infrastructure), and why the logistics industry's capital investments could become stranded.

Ashley Skaanild is Principal Advisor Carrier Integration and Transformation at WiseTech Global. He brings operational reality to the macro debate. Drawing on platform data from millions of shipments and a Reuters survey of 450+ supply chain leaders, he shows how companies are actually preparing and where technology sprawl is creating blind spots.

Together, they tackle the questions keeping supply chain directors awake: How do you plan supply chains when policy changes overnight? Can you build resilience without bankrupting operations? What role will technology play in the fractured landscape ahead?

Essential listening for freight buyers, logistics managers, and anyone navigating supply chains, geopolitics, and digital transformation in 2026.

Show note links:

LEANER, SMARTER, FASTER AND MORE CONNECTED: SUPPLY CHAINS EVOLVE TO MEET RISING VOLATILITY AND COST PRESSURES A Reuters Events, Supply Chain white paper in partnership with CargoWise

Download here: https://www.cargowise.com/de-de/news/the-new-supply-chain-playbook-how-leaders-are-responding-to-cost-pressure-and-volatility/

The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy, by Neil Shearing

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fractured-Age-Geopolitics-Splinter-Economy/dp/1399825720

Outside the Box: How Globalization Changed from Moving Stuff to Spreading Ideas, by Marc Levinson

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Outside-Box-Globalization-Changed-Spreading/dp/069119176X

#GeopoliticsTrade #Freight #Technology #LogTech #GlobalTrade #Logistics #Tariffs #2026Outlook #Wisetech #FreightBuyersClub #CapitalEconomics

00:00 – Trade Is Now a Weapon: Why Global Trade Is Fracturing
Trade policy as coercion, resilience costs, AI driving trade growth

01:00 – Welcome to 2026: Geopolitics, Trade Chaos, and Tech Strain
Greenland tariffs, fractured alliances, and why supply chains are under pressure

02:05 – Biggest Surprise of 2025: Tariffs, Allies Hit, and Tech U-Turns
Neil Shearing on Trump tariffs, China, and relaxed chip controls

04:10 – Why Policy Chaos Matters More Than Tariff Levels
Marc Levinson on volatility vs predictable trade costs

05:10 – AI Drove Half of Global Trade Growth Last Year
Why servers, chips, and AI infrastructure now shape trade flows

06:15 – Operational Reality: Red Sea, Alliances, and Schedule Reliability
Ashley Skaanild on shipping chaos and how trade adapts

08:00 – Are We De-Globalising or Splintering Into Trade Blocs?
Neil...

Co-hosted by award-winning journalist Mike King and air cargo veteran Neel Jones Shah (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) with exclusive TAC Index market intelligence and IATA's 2026 forecast from Brendan Sullivan, Global Head of Cargo.

Welcome to the launch episode of Air Cargo Unpacked - your monthly deep dive into air freight markets, capacity dynamics, and what actually matters for people who buy air cargo services.

This episode features exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index.

In this episode:

• Geopolitical chaos and air cargo resilience - Why 2026 kicked off with unprecedented uncertainty, from Greenland tensions to trade wars, yet China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus
• Chinese New Year 2026 impact - How CNY falling 2.5 weeks later than 2025 is impacting markets and what forwarders and carriers should expect in the lead-up and restart
• IATA's 2026 outlook - Brendan Sullivan identifies the three biggest headwinds (capacity constraints, regulatory complexity, economic uncertainty) and three opportunities (digitalization, e-commerce growth, agility as competitive advantage)
• E-commerce shifts post-de minimis - The reality behind Shein and Temu's strategy after US ended the $800 exemption, and where e-commerce flows are redirecting (hint: South America, Europe, Africa)
• MD-11 freighter crisis – with some 60 aircraft grounded, integrators are scrambling for replacement 767 and 747 capacity
• Exclusive TAC Index market data - Neil Wilson breaks down peak season performance, capacity constraints, Taiwan semiconductor boom, and why intra-Asia rates are up 23% year-on-year
• Capacity crunch reality - Why the aircraft delivery backlog means tight capacity, higher yields, and limited flexibility for shippers throughout 2026

Key themes: Air cargo thrives on chaos, but not all chaos is equal. This episode unpacks which disruptions benefit air freight and which threaten growth - plus what the data actually shows about where the market is heading.

Links:

TAC Index: https://www.tacindex.com
Ontegos Cloud: https://www.ontegos.cloud/

Brought to you by Ontegos Cloud - the freight forwarder profitability specialist helping forwarders turn operational effort into economic control. Learn more at ontegoscloud.com

Subscribe and follow for monthly market intelligence, exclusive data, and insights from the people shaping global air cargo.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction & Welcome to Air Cargo Unpacked

00:30 Geopolitical Chaos: Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & the Red Sea

02:00 China's Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Explained

04:00 E-commerce as a River: Finding Routes Despite Trade Wars

06:00 Does Air Cargo Thrive on Chaos?

08:00 End of De Minimis: Impact on Shein, Temu & E-commerce Volumes

11:00 2026 Vertical Focus: AI, Semiconductors & Taiwan Trade Deal

14:00 TAC Index Exclusive: Peak Season Analysis & Rate Trends

18:00 Taiwan Strength, MD-11 Groundings & Capacity Constraints

21:00 Chinese New Year Outlook: What to Expect in February

25:00 Aircraft Maintenance & The Aging Freighter Fleet

28:00 IATA's Brendan Sullivan: Top Headwinds & Opportunities for 2026

Container shipping enters 2026 facing a perfect storm: deepening geopolitical fractures, a historic vessel orderbook driving severe overcapacity, and the growing likelihood that services will soon return fully to the Suez Canal. Could this trigger a new wave of consolidation among smaller container lines?

For freight buyers, this creates both uncertainty and potential negotiating leverage.

In this episode, Mike King speaks with two voices from opposite ends of the shipping spectrum:

James Hookham - Director of the Global Shippers Forum, representing cargo owners worldwide and demanding carriers deliver "solutions, not surcharges"

Robbert van Trooijen - Founder of Inception Partners, former Maersk Regional President across Asia Pacific and Latin America for 15 years

This episode is produced in partnership with Dimerco Express Group, a global 3PL specialising in Asia-Pacific supply chains. If your sourcing or manufacturing runs through Asia, they’re worth a look:
https://www.dimerco.com

KEY INSIGHTS:

✅ Why geopolitics is now the #1 line item on shipper risk lists
✅ How US-China bloc competition forces countries like Indonesia and Panama to choose sides
✅ Suez partial reopening creating port chaos in China and Northern Europe
✅ Historic vessel orderbook (one-third of existing fleet) driving severe overcapacity
✅ "Gap between top 4 carriers and rest widening to uncomfortable size" - consolidation wave predicted
✅ Why Gemini's 90% reliability is great, but will it last and why aren’t other carriers doing better?
✅ How surcharges become carriers' profit protection tool when rates fall
✅ Contract strategy: 60/40 or 70/30 splits recommended, consider index-based deals
✅ Why APM Terminals earns 17% returns while carriers struggle with single digits
✅ Trade deal outcomes (USMCA, US-China, US-EU) will reshape 2026 freight flows

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Cold Open: Quote teases from James & Robbert
01:00 - Intro & Sponsor: Dimerco Express Group
02:00 - Guest Introductions: James Hookham & Robbert van Trooijen

ACT 1: GEOPOLITICS & SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY
03:00 - Is geopolitics the #1 line item on shipper risk lists for 2026?
03:45 - Robbert on "Choke Points" book and economic warfare
04:15 - "The Fractured Age" - Two-bloc world led by US-China
05:00 - Panama's forced choice: Rhetoric vs reality
06:00 - James: Supply chains as targets in great power competition
07:15 - "If you like your job unpredictable... being a freight buyer is the place to be in 2026"
08:00 - WTF acronym: "We got to day three, didn't we Mike?"
09:00 - Overcapacity "might just come to a head in 26"
10:00 - Post-de minimis world: What it means for e-commerce shippers

ACT 2: CONTAINER SHIPPING FUNDAMENTALS
12:45 - Pre-Chinese New Year rate bump: Seasonal or structural?
13:00 - "One third of existing fleet on order" - Historic overcapacity explained
14:00 - Choke points shifting from ocean to landside capacity
15:00 - Port congestion: China, Northern Europe, US infrastructure gaps
16:00 - Chinese port cranes controversy impacting US investments
16:45 - Has reliability actually improved? James' assessment
17:30 - Gemini alliance: Customer service "at the forefront of their thinking"
18:00 - Working capital tied up in invento...

Freight rates, container capacity, and tender strategies are about to get complicated in 2026 — and Bjorn Vang Jensen is here to cut through the noise.

Bjorn Vang Jensen (EVP Global Head of Ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics) has worn every hat in the freight industry: buyer, forwarder, consultant, and shipping executive. With 38 years of experience including major freight buying roles at electronics and automotive giants, he brings a unique perspective on what's really shaping container markets in 2026.

IN THIS EPISODE WE COVER:

- Venezuela intervention and Greenland threats: What actually impacts freight markets vs. what's just noise
- The 3 big factors shaping freight in 2026: Tariffs, geopolitics, and the Suez Canal return
- Why carriers will drip-feed the Suez reopening (not flood it) — and what that means for Asia-Europe rates
- The 70/30 contract strategy: Why Bjorn's 13-year data analysis shows contract rates beat spot
- Container shipping reliability: Can carriers charge more for it? Should you pay for it?
- China+1 becomes 3+China: The real sourcing trends happening in 2026
- Why geopolitical risk is now "line item #1" in every freight budget (not just a checkbox)

KEY QUOTES:

"For every week you have port problems, it takes a month to dig yourself out."

"70% contract, 30% spot — that's my recommendation for 2026."

"Geopolitical upheaval used to be a checkbox risk. Now it's the #1 bullet point."

ABOUT BJORN VANG JENSEN:
EVP Global Head of Ocean at EasySpeed International Logistics, with previous senior roles as a major freight buyer at global electronics and automotive companies. 38 years in container shipping.

This episode is produced with the support of OntegosCloud — the freight forwarder profitability specialist.

RELATED EPISODE:
We Need to Talk About…Reliability: Container Shipping's Problem Child
https://youtu.be/0B_EsmxkY9Y

Hosted by Mike King, award-winning business journalist specializing in global trade, shipping, and logistics.

https://youtu.be/0B_EsmxkY9Y

TIMESTAMPS:

0:00 - Intro & Guest Introduction
1:00 - Tender Season & What Bjorn's Up To
2:43 - Venezuela & Greenland: Geopolitical Noise vs. Reality
6:57 - The 3 Big Factors Shaping 2026
10:22 - Suez Canal Return Strategy: Chaos or Managed Roll-Out?
14:50 - Carrier Strategy: Capacity, Blanking & Rate Management
18:10 - Container Shipping Reliability: Can You Charge for It?
21:52 - Trans-Pacific Buying Strategy: The 70/30 Rule
23:50 - Asia-Europe Contract Data: Only 2 Windows Where Spot Won
26:00 - Why Relationships Matter in Contract Negotiations
27:00 - Sourcing Trends: China+1 Becomes "3+China"
29:40 - Geopolitical Risk: From Checkbox to Line Item #1
31:00 - Wrap & Final Advice

Global container shipping reliability has improved in 2025, but the gains are fragile. In this episode, we examine what’s really driving the numbers, why performance is already slipping, and what shippers should expect as they plan for 2026.

In this episode, produced with the support of OntegosCloud (https://www.ontegos.cloud/), we break down the latest reliability data from Sea-Intelligence and Xeneta, analyse the widening performance gap between carriers and alliances, and look at how capacity growth, orderbooks, freight rates and potential Suez Canal routing changes could affect service consistency in the months ahead.

Industry experts Nils Roche (Solvens Advisory; ex-CMA CGM, Maersk, PIL) and Kathy Liu (VP Global Sales & Marketing, Dimerco Express Group) share their insights on shipper concerns, possible congestion scenarios, and the risks of renewed market volatility.

In this episode:

• Current global schedule reliability trends
• How much of the improvement is driven by demand versus capacity
• Carrier-by-carrier and alliance reliability performance
• The impact of the Gemini Cooperation (Maersk + Hapag-Lloyd)
• Orderbook growth and what it means for supply/demand
• Red Sea/Suez Canal routing and congestion risks
• How falling rates could trigger blank sailings and reliability deterioration
• What shippers should prepare for in 2026

This is essential viewing for importers, exporters, freight forwarders and supply chain professionals who rely on stable ocean schedules and need clarity on the risks ahead.

#ContainerShipping #OceanFreight #ScheduleReliability #SupplyChain #Logistics #FreightMarket #ShippingIndustry #Maersk #HapagLloyd #SuezCanal

Paul Berger of The Wall Street Journal’s Logistics Report joins the Freight Buyers’ Club to break down the biggest supply chain stories to watch in 2026 — from tariff battles and port policy shifts to the deepening US trucking recession, the crane crackdown, EV trucking setbacks, Canada–US trade flows, and what reopening the Suez Canal could mean for global shipping.

We cover the forces reshaping global trade, why supply chains remain so volatile, and how policy moves out of Washington and Beijing could impact shippers, forwarders, carriers and cargo owners through 2026.

This episode was produced with the support of OntegosCloud, the freight forwarder profitability specialists.

#SupplyChain #Logistics #GlobalTrade #FreightMarket #WSJ

A deep dive into the 2026 freight outlook, the return of Suez routes, China+1 manufacturing shifts, capacity risks and what shippers must prepare for next year. Produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group [https://dimerco.com/].

It’s the Freight Buyers’ Club Holiday Special — a festive wrap-up of a year that delivered more plot twists than a Christmas soap marathon. From tariff shocks to China+1 shifts, Red Sea detours, booming Vietnam factories and air cargo refusing to behave “normally”… 2025 kept shippers on their toes and clutching their eggnog.

To make sense of it all, Mike King is joined by a top-tier panel of industry heavyweights:

• Kathy Liu, VP Global Sales & Marketing, Dimerco Express Group
• Nils Roche, Founder, Solvens Advisory (ex PIL-Maersk, CMA CGM)
• Peter Sand, Chief Analyst, Xeneta

Together they break down the winners, losers and big surprises of 2025 — and offer a straight-talking look at what freight buyers must prepare for in 2026. Expect sharp insights, a bit of humour, and just enough holiday spirit to take the edge off another volatile year in global logistics.

In this special we cover:

• Tariffs, Trump and the year’s biggest policy whiplash
• China+1 shifts: what moved, what didn’t and why Vietnam won big
• Air cargo’s strange but spectacular 2025
• Suez, Red Sea and the looming capacity reset
• Carrier behaviour: orderly alliances, chaotic markets
• Contracting for 2026: reliability, risk and when to go short vs long
• Why “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” might be the perfect theme for freight next year

If you're planning your 2026 strategy, pour yourself a holiday drink and plug in — this is your end-of-year sanity check.

Special thanks to Dimerco Express Group for supporting this holiday edition of The Freight Buyers’ Club.

Download Dimerco’s China+1 Logistics Playbook
Master International Growth

A Legal and Logistical Playbook for Global Expansion Success, with Expert Legal Insight From Addleshaw Goddard

https://dimerco.com/ebooks/global-business-expansion-playbook/

#FreightBuyersClub #2026FreightOutlook #SupplyChain #Logistics #ContainerShipping #SuezCanal #ChinaPlusOne #China1 #Tariffs #AirCargo #VietnamManufacturing #GlobalTrade #FreightRates #Dimerco #ShippingIndustry #SupplyChainStrategy #MaritimeLogistics

Air cargo wasn’t supposed to look this strong. Tariffs, the end of de minimis, political whiplash, war, and supply chain reshuffles all pointed to a difficult year. But the opposite happened.

In this Freight Buyers Club air cargo special — produced with the support of Dimerco Express Group — Mike King breaks down why the market held up, how shippers and carriers adapted, and what the data really says about the year ahead.

We hear from industry leaders on:
• Why air cargo defied expectations
• The impact of US tariffs and the end of de minimis
• China vs Southeast Asia sourcing shifts
• E-commerce, AI hardware demand and capacity rerouting
• Anchorage and Miami’s record volumes
• The 2026 market outlook: risks, growth drivers and unknowns

Featuring:

Glyn Hughes, Director- General, TIACA

Andrea Nicole Wilson, VP, Florida Customs Brokers & Forwarders Association

Sean Dolan, CEO, Northlink Aviation

Dimitrios “Jimmy” Nares, Section Chief, Cargo Development, Miami International Airport

Brandon Fried, Executive Director, The Airforwarders Association

Jaime Alvarez, Director of Cargo, Copa Airlines

If you want straight-talking analysis on air cargo and global trade, this one’s for you.

Subscribe to Freight Buyers Club for more interviews and explainers.

Reach out to Dimerco Express Group here: https://dimerco.com/

#AirCargo #AirFreight #SupplyChain #Logistics #GlobalTrade #FreightForwarding #EcommerceLogistics #TradePolicy #AviationCargo #CargoAirlines #SupplyChainNews