Global trade isn't ending. It's fracturing along geopolitical lines. And it's reshaping supply chains, technology systems, and the entire logistics landscape as we enter 2026.

The signals are unmistakable. Greenland threats. US-Europe tensions mounting. Trade wars escalating. This is no longer theoretical. Supply chain directors need to understand what's coming and how to prepare.

In this critical roundtable, Mike King brings together three leading voices to break down how US-China competition, tariff volatility, shifting trade blocs, and technology will reshape supply chains right now and through the year ahead.

Neil Shearing is Chief Economist at Capital Economics and author of The Fractured Age. He explains why we're not seeing deglobalization but rather a splintering of the global economy into competing US and China-led blocs. And why this matters far more than simple tariff rates.

Marc Levinson is an economic historian and author of Outside the Box. He challenges the bloc theory with real world examples of trade policy chaos. He reveals why mega-ships may become obsolete, what's really driving trade now (spoiler: AI infrastructure), and why the logistics industry's capital investments could become stranded.

Ashley Skaanild is Principal Advisor Carrier Integration and Transformation at WiseTech Global. He brings operational reality to the macro debate. Drawing on platform data from millions of shipments and a Reuters survey of 450+ supply chain leaders, he shows how companies are actually preparing and where technology sprawl is creating blind spots.

Together, they tackle the questions keeping supply chain directors awake: How do you plan supply chains when policy changes overnight? Can you build resilience without bankrupting operations? What role will technology play in the fractured landscape ahead?

Essential listening for freight buyers, logistics managers, and anyone navigating supply chains, geopolitics, and digital transformation in 2026.

Show note links:

LEANER, SMARTER, FASTER AND MORE CONNECTED: SUPPLY CHAINS EVOLVE TO MEET RISING VOLATILITY AND COST PRESSURES A Reuters Events, Supply Chain white paper in partnership with CargoWise

Download here: https://www.cargowise.com/de-de/news/the-new-supply-chain-playbook-how-leaders-are-responding-to-cost-pressure-and-volatility/

The Fractured Age: How the Return of Geopolitics Will Splinter the Global Economy, by Neil Shearing

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Fractured-Age-Geopolitics-Splinter-Economy/dp/1399825720

Outside the Box: How Globalization Changed from Moving Stuff to Spreading Ideas, by Marc Levinson

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Outside-Box-Globalization-Changed-Spreading/dp/069119176X

#GeopoliticsTrade #Freight #Technology #LogTech #GlobalTrade #Logistics #Tariffs #2026Outlook #Wisetech #FreightBuyersClub #CapitalEconomics

00:00 – Trade Is Now a Weapon: Why Global Trade Is Fracturing
Trade policy as coercion, resilience costs, AI driving trade growth

01:00 – Welcome to 2026: Geopolitics, Trade Chaos, and Tech Strain
Greenland tariffs, fractured alliances, and why supply chains are under pressure

02:05 – Biggest Surprise of 2025: Tariffs, Allies Hit, and Tech U-Turns
Neil Shearing on Trump tariffs, China, and relaxed chip controls

04:10 – Why Policy Chaos Matters More Than Tariff Levels
Marc Levinson on volatility vs predictable trade costs

05:10 – AI Drove Half of Global Trade Growth Last Year
Why servers, chips, and AI infrastructure now shape trade flows

06:15 – Operational Reality: Red Sea, Alliances, and Schedule Reliability
Ashley Skaanild on shipping chaos and how trade adapts

08:00 – Are We De-Globalising or Splintering Into Trade Blocs?
Neil...

Co-hosted by award-winning journalist Mike King and air cargo veteran Neel Jones Shah (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) with exclusive TAC Index market intelligence and IATA's 2026 forecast from Brendan Sullivan, Global Head of Cargo.

Welcome to the launch episode of Air Cargo Unpacked - your monthly deep dive into air freight markets, capacity dynamics, and what actually matters for people who buy air cargo services.

This episode features exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index.

In this episode:

• Geopolitical chaos and air cargo resilience - Why 2026 kicked off with unprecedented uncertainty, from Greenland tensions to trade wars, yet China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus
• Chinese New Year 2026 impact - How CNY falling 2.5 weeks later than 2025 is impacting markets and what forwarders and carriers should expect in the lead-up and restart
• IATA's 2026 outlook - Brendan Sullivan identifies the three biggest headwinds (capacity constraints, regulatory complexity, economic uncertainty) and three opportunities (digitalization, e-commerce growth, agility as competitive advantage)
• E-commerce shifts post-de minimis - The reality behind Shein and Temu's strategy after US ended the $800 exemption, and where e-commerce flows are redirecting (hint: South America, Europe, Africa)
• MD-11 freighter crisis – with some 60 aircraft grounded, integrators are scrambling for replacement 767 and 747 capacity
• Exclusive TAC Index market data - Neil Wilson breaks down peak season performance, capacity constraints, Taiwan semiconductor boom, and why intra-Asia rates are up 23% year-on-year
• Capacity crunch reality - Why the aircraft delivery backlog means tight capacity, higher yields, and limited flexibility for shippers throughout 2026

Key themes: Air cargo thrives on chaos, but not all chaos is equal. This episode unpacks which disruptions benefit air freight and which threaten growth - plus what the data actually shows about where the market is heading.

Links:

TAC Index: https://www.tacindex.com
Ontegos Cloud: https://www.ontegos.cloud/

Brought to you by Ontegos Cloud - the freight forwarder profitability specialist helping forwarders turn operational effort into economic control. Learn more at ontegoscloud.com

Subscribe and follow for monthly market intelligence, exclusive data, and insights from the people shaping global air cargo.

Timestamps

00:00 Introduction & Welcome to Air Cargo Unpacked

00:30 Geopolitical Chaos: Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & the Red Sea

02:00 China's Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Explained

04:00 E-commerce as a River: Finding Routes Despite Trade Wars

06:00 Does Air Cargo Thrive on Chaos?

08:00 End of De Minimis: Impact on Shein, Temu & E-commerce Volumes

11:00 2026 Vertical Focus: AI, Semiconductors & Taiwan Trade Deal

14:00 TAC Index Exclusive: Peak Season Analysis & Rate Trends

18:00 Taiwan Strength, MD-11 Groundings & Capacity Constraints

21:00 Chinese New Year Outlook: What to Expect in February

25:00 Aircraft Maintenance & The Aging Freighter Fleet

28:00 IATA's Brendan Sullivan: Top Headwinds & Opportunities for 2026

Container shipping enters 2026 facing a perfect storm: deepening geopolitical fractures, a historic vessel orderbook driving severe overcapacity, and the growing likelihood that services will soon return fully to the Suez Canal. Could this trigger a new wave of consolidation among smaller container lines?

For freight buyers, this creates both uncertainty and potential negotiating leverage.

In this episode, Mike King speaks with two voices from opposite ends of the shipping spectrum:

James Hookham - Director of the Global Shippers Forum, representing cargo owners worldwide and demanding carriers deliver "solutions, not surcharges"

Robbert van Trooijen - Founder of Inception Partners, former Maersk Regional President across Asia Pacific and Latin America for 15 years

This episode is produced in partnership with Dimerco Express Group, a global 3PL specialising in Asia-Pacific supply chains. If your sourcing or manufacturing runs through Asia, they’re worth a look:
https://www.dimerco.com

KEY INSIGHTS:

✅ Why geopolitics is now the #1 line item on shipper risk lists
✅ How US-China bloc competition forces countries like Indonesia and Panama to choose sides
✅ Suez partial reopening creating port chaos in China and Northern Europe
✅ Historic vessel orderbook (one-third of existing fleet) driving severe overcapacity
✅ "Gap between top 4 carriers and rest widening to uncomfortable size" - consolidation wave predicted
✅ Why Gemini's 90% reliability is great, but will it last and why aren’t other carriers doing better?
✅ How surcharges become carriers' profit protection tool when rates fall
✅ Contract strategy: 60/40 or 70/30 splits recommended, consider index-based deals
✅ Why APM Terminals earns 17% returns while carriers struggle with single digits
✅ Trade deal outcomes (USMCA, US-China, US-EU) will reshape 2026 freight flows

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 - Cold Open: Quote teases from James & Robbert
01:00 - Intro & Sponsor: Dimerco Express Group
02:00 - Guest Introductions: James Hookham & Robbert van Trooijen

ACT 1: GEOPOLITICS & SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY
03:00 - Is geopolitics the #1 line item on shipper risk lists for 2026?
03:45 - Robbert on "Choke Points" book and economic warfare
04:15 - "The Fractured Age" - Two-bloc world led by US-China
05:00 - Panama's forced choice: Rhetoric vs reality
06:00 - James: Supply chains as targets in great power competition
07:15 - "If you like your job unpredictable... being a freight buyer is the place to be in 2026"
08:00 - WTF acronym: "We got to day three, didn't we Mike?"
09:00 - Overcapacity "might just come to a head in 26"
10:00 - Post-de minimis world: What it means for e-commerce shippers

ACT 2: CONTAINER SHIPPING FUNDAMENTALS
12:45 - Pre-Chinese New Year rate bump: Seasonal or structural?
13:00 - "One third of existing fleet on order" - Historic overcapacity explained
14:00 - Choke points shifting from ocean to landside capacity
15:00 - Port congestion: China, Northern Europe, US infrastructure gaps
16:00 - Chinese port cranes controversy impacting US investments
16:45 - Has reliability actually improved? James' assessment
17:30 - Gemini alliance: Customer service "at the forefront of their thinking"
18:00 - Working capital tied up in invento...