Air Cargo Unpacked: Launch Episode | Geopolitical Chaos, CNY Outlook & IATA's 2026 Forecast

Co-hosted by award-winning journalist Mike King and air cargo veteran Neel Jones Shah (ex-Delta, United, Flexport) with exclusive TAC Index market intelligence and IATA's 2026 forecast from Brendan Sullivan, Global Head of Cargo.

Welcome to the launch episode of Air Cargo Unpacked - your monthly deep dive into air freight markets, capacity dynamics, and what actually matters for people who buy air cargo services.

This episode features exclusive data from the Baltic Exchange Air Freight Index, powered by TAC Index.

In this episode:

• Geopolitical chaos and air cargo resilience - Why 2026 kicked off with unprecedented uncertainty, from Greenland tensions to trade wars, yet China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus
• Chinese New Year 2026 impact - How CNY falling 2.5 weeks later than 2025 is impacting markets and what forwarders and carriers should expect in the lead-up and restart
• IATA's 2026 outlook - Brendan Sullivan identifies the three biggest headwinds (capacity constraints, regulatory complexity, economic uncertainty) and three opportunities (digitalization, e-commerce growth, agility as competitive advantage)
• E-commerce shifts post-de minimis - The reality behind Shein and Temu's strategy after US ended the $800 exemption, and where e-commerce flows are redirecting (hint: South America, Europe, Africa)
• MD-11 freighter crisis – with some 60 aircraft grounded, integrators are scrambling for replacement 767 and 747 capacity
• Exclusive TAC Index market data - Neil Wilson breaks down peak season performance, capacity constraints, Taiwan semiconductor boom, and why intra-Asia rates are up 23% year-on-year
• Capacity crunch reality - Why the aircraft delivery backlog means tight capacity, higher yields, and limited flexibility for shippers throughout 2026

Key themes: Air cargo thrives on chaos, but not all chaos is equal. This episode unpacks which disruptions benefit air freight and which threaten growth - plus what the data actually shows about where the market is heading.

Links:

TAC Index: https://www.tacindex.com
Ontegos Cloud: https://www.ontegos.cloud/

Brought to you by Ontegos Cloud - the freight forwarder profitability specialist helping forwarders turn operational effort into economic control. Learn more at ontegoscloud.com

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Timestamps

00:00 Introduction & Welcome to Air Cargo Unpacked

00:30 Geopolitical Chaos: Greenland, Venezuela, Iran & the Red Sea

02:00 China's Record $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus Explained

04:00 E-commerce as a River: Finding Routes Despite Trade Wars

06:00 Does Air Cargo Thrive on Chaos?

08:00 End of De Minimis: Impact on Shein, Temu & E-commerce Volumes

11:00 2026 Vertical Focus: AI, Semiconductors & Taiwan Trade Deal

14:00 TAC Index Exclusive: Peak Season Analysis & Rate Trends

18:00 Taiwan Strength, MD-11 Groundings & Capacity Constraints

21:00 Chinese New Year Outlook: What to Expect in February

25:00 Aircraft Maintenance & The Aging Freighter Fleet

28:00 IATA's Brendan Sullivan: Top Headwinds & Opportunities for 2026