Air Cargo Unpacked | Middle East War: Fuel Crisis, Capacity Disruption and Global Fallout

The Middle East war that began on February 28th has sent shockwaves through global air cargo. Jet fuel has nearly doubled. Gulf hub capacity is still less than 60% of normal. And a fragile ceasefire has done little to restore confidence in the region's critical air corridors.

In this episode of Air Cargo Unpacked, Mike King and Neel Jones Shah are joined by air cargo legend Ram Menen, who spent nearly 28 years building Emirates SkyCargo and helped make Dubai one of the great global freight hubs. Ram gives his verdict on what this crisis means for the region, how it compares to Gulf War I, 9/11 and COVID, and whether the Gulf's geographic advantage can survive the damage.

We also have Bachi Spiga, VP Network Operations at DHL Express Middle East and North Africa, on how DHL rewired its entire regional operation to keep trade moving, and Neil Wilson and Peyton Burnett from TAC Index, calculating agent for the Baltic Air Freight Indices, on what the rate data is telling us right now. And we walk through exclusive capacity and fuel analysis from Rotate, giving a granular picture of what has actually happened to the global network since February 28th.

Produced with the support of Ontegos Cloud, the freight forwarder profitability specialists. https://www.ontegos.cloud/

In this episode we cover:

• Ram Menen on the history, the crisis and why he calls this a temporary setback rather than an existential threat to Gulf aviation
• Why the ceasefire changes less than you might think, and what actually needs to happen before normal returns
• Gulf recovery airport by airport, with Dubai at 54%, Doha at 50%, Bahrain and Kuwait at zero
• Global capacity shifts by trade lane, including a 28% surge on Asia-Europe as carriers bypass the Gulf
• Why jet fuel is still 70% above pre-conflict levels despite easing on ceasefire news
• Southeast Asia's fuel import dependency and why Vietnam, Hong Kong and Australia are most at risk
• How DHL rewired its Middle East network to keep trade moving
• Rate movements across the key corridors since February 28th, with Baltic Air Freight Index data from TAC Index
• The 777-200 freighter conversion approval and whether it moves the needle on the capacity crunch

Journalism featured in this episode:

• Damian Brett, Air Cargo News: "Airfreight recovery could take months after US-Iran ceasefire"
• Greg Knowler, Journal of Commerce: "Rising jet fuel costs challenging freighter viability as war enters second month"
• Eric Kulisch, FreightWaves: "FAA approves 1st Boeing 777-200 passenger-to-freighter conversion"

Data: TAC Index / Baltic Air Freight Indices. Rotate.

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