Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording.

Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market.

Key moments

01:29 - Brian’s career journey

07:00 - From Fed to Trimont

09:09 - Office lending sentiment

11:55 - Trimont data advantage

14:11 - Stagflation and expenses

18:20 - Capital markets inflection

22:03 - Wall of maturities

25:54 - Non-bank lending risks

29:52 - 2026 themes by sector

32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks

34:36 - An industry wish for transparency

Resources mentioned

Brian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/

Trimont - https://trimont.com/

The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index.

Key moments

01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop

05:50 Q4 and full year transactions

09:12 Velocity and pricing trends

12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons

14:13 Geographic winners and losers

19:15 Biggest surprises in 2025

21:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office

27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns

31:46 Apartments trends and outlook

35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing

40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots

46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market

Resources mentioned

Phil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/

Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/

Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/

Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/

Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featured

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group’s Debt Capital Market Survey.

Key moments

01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age

03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights

07:48 ADP employment data analysis

10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown

16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports

20:58 Earnings season highlights

27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon

47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and Announcements

Resources mentioned

Reonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm

ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com

BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/

Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/

Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/