Note: This episode was recorded prior to recent developments in the Middle East and the associated impact on global energy markets. Some macroeconomic context discussed in this episode reflects conditions at the time of recording.

Lenders are re-engaging, origination activity is picking up, and the market is beginning to find its footing around the wall of maturities, but rising operating expenses are outpacing rent growth in select segments, and a new set of macro uncertainties is changing the capital markets math for CRE. In this episode, we’re joined by Brian Bailey, Senior Managing Director and Head of Research at Trimont, to examine CRE debt market conditions, sector-level operating trends, and the risks the industry may be underestimating heading into 2026. Brian draws on 14 years as the Federal Reserve System's CRE subject matter expert and Trimont's $700B loan servicing portfolio to share what the data is revealing about credit conditions, expense pressures, and lender behavior across the market.

Key moments

01:29 - Brian’s career journey

07:00 - From Fed to Trimont

09:09 - Office lending sentiment

11:55 - Trimont data advantage

14:11 - Stagflation and expenses

18:20 - Capital markets inflection

22:03 - Wall of maturities

25:54 - Non-bank lending risks

29:52 - 2026 themes by sector

32:37 - Underappreciated 2026 risks

34:36 - An industry wish for transparency

Resources mentioned

Brian Bailey - https://www.linkedin.com/in/brian-bailey-1a73888/

Trimont - https://trimont.com/

The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index.

Key moments

01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop

05:50 Q4 and full year transactions

09:12 Velocity and pricing trends

12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons

14:13 Geographic winners and losers

19:15 Biggest surprises in 2025

21:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office

27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns

31:46 Apartments trends and outlook

35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing

40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots

46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market

Resources mentioned

Phil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/

Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/

Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/

Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/

Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featured

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Bank lending standards are easing, CRE financing competition is rising, and even office is seeing selective reengagement. In this episode, our hosts, Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry, share and discuss the latest SLOOS data, earnings insights from major banks and asset managers, county-level GDP data, consumer sentiment, and small business optimism. Featuring a special conversation with Andrew Pabon, Director of Debt Advisory at Altus Group, on the latest trends from Altus Group’s Debt Capital Market Survey.

Key moments

01:47 Stat of the Day: Multifamily property age

03:09 Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey insights

07:48 ADP employment data analysis

10:07 County-level GDP data breakdown

16:19 Consumer and business sentiment reports

20:58 Earnings season highlights

27:55 CRE Debt Capital Market Survey results with Andrew Pabon

47:02 Upcoming Data Releases and Announcements

Resources mentioned

Reonomy: https://www.altusgroup.com/solutions/reonomy/

Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: https://www.federalreserve.gov/data/sloos/sloos-202601.htm

ADP Employment Report: https://adpemploymentreport.com

BEA County-Level GDP & Personal Income: https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/gross-domestic-product-county-and-personal-income-county-2024

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/

NFIB Small Business Optimism Index: https://www.nfib.com/news/press-release/new-nfib-survey-small-business-optimism-remains-above-52-year-average/

Altus Debt Capital Market Survey: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/

Altus Connect: https://www.altusgroup.com/connect/

What does the CRE credit landscape really look like heading into 2026? Cole Perry is joined by Andy Boettcher, Head of Research at Trepp, to pull back the curtain on bank lending behavior, refinancing risk, extensions, and why fears around the “maturity wall” may be overstated. Drawing on decades of experience from the Federal Reserve to today’s lending data, Andy offers a seasoned, data-driven outlook on where CRE credit is stabilizing, and where it’s still sorting itself out.

Key Moments:

01:53 Andy’s Background and career journey

07:06 From the Fed to Trepp

09:53 Macro and CRE market analysis

16:34 Bank lending vs. CMBS market

25:53 2026 forecast and predictions

27:45 Final thoughts and industry wishes

Resources Mentioned:

Andy Boettcher - https://www.linkedin.com/in/aboettcher/

Trepp - https://www.trepp.com/

Federal Reserve H.8 Report – Weekly Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm

Federal Reserve Z.1 Financial Accounts of the United States - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/z1/

Atlanta Fed GDPNow - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

New York Fed Staff Nowcast - https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/policy/nowcast

What CREFC Miami revealed about CRE debt markets in 2026 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/what-crefc-miami-revealed-about-cre-debt-markets-in-2026

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Thanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.

#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property



We examine the economic data and policy developments setting the tone for the US commercial real estate market in early 2026. Discussing what recent labor reports, GDP estimates, and financing trends suggest about growth, risk, and capital markets conditions heading into the year. The conversation also turns to housing policy, including new local initiatives and national proposals, and how these policy signals could influence supply, affordability, and investment strategy across CRE sectors.

Key Moments:

00:58 Key statistics and market trends

03:26 Economic data and labor market insights

07:56 GDP and service sector analysis

12:18 Housing market update

15:13 Consumer data and AI impact

19:03 Housing policy and national proposals

27:34 Upcoming events and announcements

Resources Mentioned:

Debt Capital Market Survey - https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-debt-capital-markets-survey-registration/

Altus Connect Conference - https://events.altusgroup.com/event/altus-connect-2026/summary

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) - https://www.bls.gov/jlt/

ADP National Employment Report - https://adpemploymentreport.com/

BLS Employment Situation / December Jobs Report - https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.htm

Atlanta Fed GDPNow Estimate - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

S&P Global US Services PMI - https://www.pmi.spglobal.com/

ISM Services PMI - https://www.ismworld.org/supply-management-news-and-reports/reports/ism-reports/

Consumer Credit (G19) - https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g19/current/

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index - https://data.sca.isr.umich.edu/

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Thanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.

#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property

The biggest risk in multifamily right now isn’t oversupply, it’s misunderstanding the data. Jay Parsons joins CRE Exchange to discuss where public housing datasets fall short, why headline narratives around supply, rents, and defaults spread so quickly, and how investors should interpret conflicting signals as the market moves into its next phase.

Key moments

01:09 Jay Parsons' background and career

02:26 Evolving perspectives in rental housing

05:17 Supply and demand dynamics in multifamily housing

08:40 Demographic trends and housing preferences

11:36 Cost pressures and operational challenges

15:09 Interest rates and multifamily market impact

20:22 Affordability and nuances in rental housing

23:27 Historical context of housing affordability

25:00 Potential solutions to housing affordability

26:14 The role of GSEs in the housing market

28:51 Public vs. private data in housing

37:00 Misconceptions and myths in housing

40:50 Challenges in data collection and market segments

Resources mentioned

Jay Parsons: https://jayparsons.com/

The Rent Roll: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-rent-roll-with-jay-parsons/id1770512765

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Thanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.

#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property



Newmark’s President of Capital Markets, North America, Chad Lavender, breaks down the sector-by-sector changes that are redefining today’s capital markets. From the surge in data center demand to senior housing’s NOI outperformance and the resurgence of banks in lending, Chad share a well-defined read on where CRE capital is actually flowing, and why it matters heading into 2026.

Key Moments:

01:34 Chad Lavender's career journey

05:08 Overview of Newmark Capital Markets

07:35 Current trends in US CRE capital markets

16:40 Deep dive into alternative sectors

20:26 Healthcare and senior housing insights

25:19 Data centers and life sciences

31:39 Medical office, SFR, and BTR

36:35 Alternatives on the move and market structures

Resources Mentioned:

Chad Lavender: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chad-lavender-03551bb/

Newmark: https://www.nmrk.com/services/investor-solutions/capital-markets

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com



The latest wave of delayed government data is finally in, and it’s helping the CRE community reestablish a clearer view of the economy heading into 2026. Join Omar and Cole as they interpret new banking, retail, PPI, and sentiment indicators, translating them into implications for capital availability, demand, and development pipelines.

Key Moments:

01:12 Quarterly Banking Profile insights

05:49 Commercial real estate lending trends

10:36 Retail sales and economic indicators

13:02 Producer Price Index analysis

15:07 Federal Reserve's Beige Book highlights

22:42 Consumer Confidence and GDP Nowcast

28:11 Upcoming data releases and final thoughts

Resources Mentioned:

FDIC Quarterly Banking Profile - https://www.fdic.gov/quarterly-banking-profile

US Bureau of Labor and Statistics Producer Price Index - https://www.bls.gov/pPI/

US Census Bureau Advance Retail Trade Report - https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html

Federal Reserve Beige Book - https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/publications/beige-book-default.htm

The Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index - https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence/index.cfm

GDP Now - https://www.atlantafed.org/cqer/research/gdpnow

US Commercial Real Estate Transaction Analysis – Q3 2025 - https://www.altusgroup.com/insights/us-commercial-real-estate-transaction-analysis-q3-2025

Email us: altusresearch@altusgroup.com

Thanks for listening to the “CRE Exchange” podcast, powered by Altus Group. If you enjoyed this episode, please leave a review to help get the word out about the show. And be sure to subscribe so you never miss another insightful conversation.

#CRE #CommercialRealEstate #Property