560 billion reasons the US CRE market is finding its footing

The CRE transaction market posted its first annual property count increase since 2021, industrial dollar volume surged 54%, and office may finally be finding a floor. In this episode of CRE Exchange, hosts Omar Eltorai and Cole Perry break down Q4 and full-year 2025 transaction data, pricing trends across major sectors and MSAs, and what the numbers say about where the market is heading. Featuring a special conversation with Phil Tily, Alex Jaffe, and Mike Amthor from Altus Group's advisory practice on valuation and performance trends across the ODCE Index.

Key moments

01:28 Key stat of the day and macro backdrop

05:50 Q4 and full year transactions

09:12 Velocity and pricing trends

12:36 Subsector and deal size comparisons

14:13 Geographic winners and losers

19:15 Biggest surprises in 2025

21:48 Sector shockers: retail, industrial, office

27:21 ODCE data and Q4 returns

31:46 Apartments trends and outlook

35:20 Industrial markets and SoCal repricing

40:56 Office stabilization and green Shoots

46:58 Retail resilience and mark-to-market

Resources mentioned

Phil Tily: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phil-tily-7b9a9027/

Mike Amthor: https://www.linkedin.com/in/michael-amthor-40865154/

Alex Jaffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexander-jaffe-mai-31425123/

Q4 2025 US CRE Investment and Transactions quarterly report: https://www.altusgroup.com/featured-insights/cre-transactions/

Altus' Q4 valuation and performance trends analysis of the NCREIF ODCE Index: https://www.altusgroup.com/webinars/ncreif-odce-index-quarterly-analysis/#featured

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