Fluke

The Math and Myth of Coincidence

De: Joseph Mazur

Narrado por: Tim Andres Pabon

What are the chances? This is the question we ask ourselves when we encounter the strangest and most seemingly impossible coincidences, like the woman who won the lottery four times or the fact that Lincoln's dreams foreshadowed his own assassination. But, when we look at coincidences mathematically, the odds are a lot better than any of us would have thought.

In Fluke, mathematician Joseph Mazur takes a second look at the seemingly improbable, sharing with us an entertaining guide to the most surprising moments in our lives. He takes us on a tour of the mathematical concepts of probability, such as the law of large numbers and the birthday paradox, and combines these concepts with lively anecdotes of flukes from around the world. How do you explain finding your college copy of Moby Dick in a used bookstore on the Seine on your first visit to Paris? How can a jury be convinced beyond a reasonable doubt that DNA found at the scene of a heinous crime did not get there by some fluke? Should we be surprised if strangers named Maria and Francisco, seeking each other in a hotel lobby, accidentally meet the wrong Francisco and the wrong Maria, another pair of strangers also looking for each other? As Mazur reveals, if there is any likelihood that something could happen, no matter how small, it is bound to happen to someone at some time.

In Fluke, Mazur offers us proof of the inevitability of the sublime and the unexpected. He has written a book that will appeal to anyone who has ever wondered how all of the tiny decisions that happen in our lives add up to improbable wholes. A must-listen for math enthusiasts and storytellers alike, Fluke helps us to understand the true nature of chance.

©2016 Joseph Mazur (P)2016 Gildan Media LLC

Reseñas de la Crítica

"Mazur’s thoughtful tour reveals the explanatory power of probability theory in the larger world." ( Publishers Weekly)

Reality explains so much better than myth!

(As posted in GoodReads)
Joseph Mazur (the author) goes into so many different ways that chance and probability actually DO predict the totally unlikely, and he points out the POSSIBILITY and PROBABILITY of things that seem extremely unusual, unlikely, and downright freaky and magical occurring, thereby emphasizing the rationality of the world – and the IRRATIONALITY of pseudoscience, premonition, and ESP/psychic beliefs.
He goes into several realms: economy, weather, relationships, and day-to-day life for instance. Reality and probability are both amazing and surprising, and it's interesting to see demonstrated and described how they totally help to define our world and experiences without the need to go to magic!

For a more realistic worldview

Recommended and edifying: This book helps correct common mistakes in how we interpret reality, and puts seemly meaningful, improbable, and unexplained events that occur in our lives in their proper perspective. The end of the book was the best part. Note that the book can be a bit dull at times because the author is carefully building up to establish his main points on sound footing, which may be a bit off-putting for some people looking for a more thrilling read. Nonetheless, it's a very worthwhile read/listen.

Good book. Lost me a few times

This is a good, solid book about statistics and practical statistical thinking. It looks at "the odds" of all kinds of things happening in order to convey that even if something is EXTREMELY unlikely, it can still happen. Mazur analyzes several illustrative case studies in unlikely occurrence and this was interesting. The audio description of things like Bayes Theorem was good, although somewhat slow going as reading formulae orally can be hard to listen to. Toughest to grasp were examples in the last chapter that (to me) were underdeveloped and quickly knocked down when a more rigorous examination might have helped demonstrate relevance. I enjoy this book about as much as The Signal and the Noise and less than Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk.

Great argument in the improbable being probable

Would you listen to Fluke again? Why?

Yes, the story line is interlaced through multiple events. So every time you listen to it, you can easily catch something that you did not catch prior.

What was one of the most memorable moments of Fluke?

Carl Jung and The Golden Scarab

If you could give Fluke a new subtitle, what would it be?

Heads or Tails

Any additional comments?

Not as heavy in math as I anticipated; However, the argument is made clear and concise.