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the WiRE - Weekly Roundup

the WiRE - Weekly Roundup

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Your go-to summary of the top stories shaping the real estate industry this week.

© 2024 The WiRE Podcast Network. All rights reserved. This podcast and its content, including audio, text, and graphics, are the intellectual property of The WiRE Podcast Network. Unauthorized reproduction, distribution, or use is strictly prohibited without prior written consent. For permissions or inquiries, visit thewirefm.com. Economía Gestión y Liderazgo Liderazgo Marketing Marketing y Ventas Política y Gobierno
Episodios
  • Your Home Value Just Peaked? The Unexpected Slowdown Hitting Real Estate

    Your Home Value Just Peaked? The Unexpected Slowdown Hitting Real Estate
    Apr 28 2025
    In this episode, we're diving into a significant shift in the housing market: an unexpected slowdown in the seemingly relentless rise of home values. Recent data suggests that the market may be hitting a plateau, and in some areas, prices are even declining. This comes after a long period of growth, leaving many to wonder if we've reached a peak.The Cooling Market: By the Numbers- Nationwide, home price growth is decelerating. In March 2025, the year-over-year increase was 4.6%, down from 5.1% in February. This marks the eleventh consecutive month of slowing annual growth and the first time below 5% since August 2023. Redfin reported an even slower growth rate of 2.1% year over year for the four weeks ending April 20. This is the slowest pace since July 2023.- More strikingly, home prices fell year over year in 11 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas during the four weeks ending April 20, the most in 19 months. Notable declines were seen in San Antonio (-3.7%), Oakland, CA (-3.5%), and Jacksonville, FL (-2.2%). Zillow's forecast has taken a rare negative turn, predicting a 1.7% decline in national home values between March 2025 and March 2026. Sixteen of the top 50 metros studied by Zillow have already seen year-over-year home value drops, with Austin, TX, experiencing the largest at -4.6%.- This slowdown is also reflected in the month-over-month data. In March 2025, 20 of the 50 most populous metros recorded a drop in home prices month over month, with Columbus, OH, leading the decline at -0.7%.Factors Contributing to the Slowdown- Economic Uncertainty: Rising housing costs and broader economic jitters are making buyers nervous. Concerns about the economy and personal finances are leading to hesitation. Zillow suggests that a "dip in stock portfolios, challenged affordability, and continuing economic uncertainty" may cause potential buyers to adopt a "wait and see" approach, putting downward pressure on prices. New tariffs are also adding to this uncertainty.- Increased Inventory: The supply of unsold existing homes jumped 8.1% from February to March, reaching 1.33 million units. This represents a 19.8% increase from March 2024 and a 4.0-month supply. Altos Research noted the biggest single week of inventory gains in nearly three years. A greater supply of homes gives buyers more selection and reduces upward pressure on prices.- Sluggish Sales: Existing home sales fell 5.9% from February to March and 2.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). This decline occurred even as mortgage rates were trending down, suggesting a fundamental hesitancy among buyers.- Buyer Hesitation and Canceled Sales: Economic jitters are also prompting some buyers to back out of deals. 13% of pending home sales were canceled in March.Shifting Dynamics: Seller Concessions and New Home Sales- To entice wary buyers, sellers are increasingly offering concessions. 44.3% of home sales in the first quarter of 2025 included seller concessions, up from 39.3% in the same period last year and just shy of the record. In some metros, like Seattle, the rate is as high as 71.3%, nearly double the share from a year ago. Redfin economists suggest sellers may need to price lower than their initial instinct to sell quickly and avoid giving concessions.- Interestingly, new home sales experienced a "surprising" boost in March, rising 7.4% from February and 6.0% year-over-year. This may be attributed to lower mortgage rates earlier in March and a strong push for homes priced under $400,000. The median price of new houses sold was $403,600, down 7.5% from a year ago, suggesting builders are focusing on smaller, less expensive homes.Regional VariationsIt's crucial to note that the housing market is not uniform across the country. Regional breakdowns reveal different trends in sales and prices. For example, while national existing-home sales declined, the West saw a 1.3% increase year-over-year. Home value declines are concentrated in specific metros. Altos Research highlights the different trajectories of northern and Sunbelt markets, with Florida standing out as particularly weak in weekly pending home sales.The Debate Over Private ListingsAnother dynamic influencing the market is the ongoing debate surrounding private or "off-market" listings. Companies like Zillow and Redfin have implemented policies to bar publicly marketed listings that are not shared via the MLS, aiming for greater transparency. This stance has garnered support from some brokerage CEOs who believe private networks serve brokerages rather than the public. However, proponents of private listings, like Compass CEO Robert Reffkin, allege that Zillow's actions are anti-competitive. This debate underscores the tension between providing exclusive opportunities and ensuring broad market access.The Rise of Presale RenovationsIn a potentially related trend, presale renovation is moving from a niche strategy to a more mainstream approach. Data ...
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    13 m
  • Tariff Shockwave: Is Your Dream Home $11,000 More Expensive?

    Tariff Shockwave: Is Your Dream Home $11,000 More Expensive?
    Apr 21 2025
    Today, we're diving deep into a critical issue shaking the housing market in April 2025: the impact of recently announced tariffs. Could these trade policies add a staggering $11,000 to the cost of your dream home? Let's explore the tariff shockwave and its implications.The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) recently released its monthly housing market index for April, which, despite a slight uptick in builder confidence to 40, reveals significant underlying concerns. While the easing of mortgage rates in late March may have temporarily pushed some buyers off the fence, this optimism could be short-lived.A key finding from the NAHB survey highlights that a majority of builders (60%) reported that their suppliers have already increased or announced increases in prices due to tariffs. These cost hikes are averaging 6.3% and, according to the NAHB, could add approximately $10,900 to the cost of building a new home. Other sources corroborate that builders were already experiencing rising material costs even before the tariffs fully took effect. This uncertainty surrounding tariffs and broader economic conditions is also making clients hesitant about larger remodeling projects.It's important to note that these costs are rising even though many of the tariffs have been delayed or won't take effect until later in the year. Paul Emrath, vice president for survey and housing policy research for NAHB, explained that the mere announcement of tariffs can have an adverse effect on the behavior of consumers and even businesses. This uncertainty, stemming from the Trump administration's tariff announcements, appears to be seeping into the building industry.Builders themselves are expressing growing uncertainty over market conditions due to tariff-induced price volatility, as well as labor and land shortages. While builders were most confident about current sales conditions in April, their expectations for home sales over the next six months have declined. Furthermore, while builder confidence saw a slight increase in April, it is still down significantly from a year ago, when the index stood at 51.The impact of these rising costs will likely be passed on to consumers. Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American, stated that if these tariffs persist, builders will have no choice but to pass on the costs to consumers, who are already struggling with housing affordability. This could further dampen homebuying demand, as economic experts warn that home sales may begin to slow due to concerns about the economy and fluctuating mortgage rates.Adding to the complexity, housing starts for single-family homes were down 14.2% in March compared to February, and building permits for single-family homes also dropped by 2%. This slowdown in new home construction occurs as builders face persistent supply-side and affordability challenges.The potential increase in new home prices due to tariffs also coincides with a broader market where home price growth is already losing steam. Fannie Mae economists have scaled back their price growth estimates for 2025, and some analysts believe prices could even fall. Mike Simonsen of Altos Research noted that home prices are staying "just barely positive" and questioned whether economic turmoil could force them to shift negative, drawing parallels to price drops seen in 2022 following interest rate spikes.Redfin reported that for the four weeks ending April 13, 2025, the median sale price increased by a modest 2.6% year-over-year, down from higher growth rates seen earlier in the year. At the same time, new listings are up 11.2% year-over-year, and active listings are up 12.3%, indicating more choices for buyers but potentially less leverage for sellers.Interestingly, a recent survey by Realtor.com found that 81% of potential sellers expect to get their asking price or more, but Redfin's Elijah de la Campa suggests a growing disconnect between seller expectations and the direction the market is actually moving. With tariff fears and economic uncertainty making homebuyers nervous, sellers who don't lower their price expectations may see their homes linger unsold.In early April, Redfin noted that new listings were up 10.3% year-over-year, suggesting some sellers might be looking to cash in on their equity before a potential economic downturn further dampens demand and possibly drives down home values.Regionally, builder confidence in April, based on the three-month rolling average, remains highest in the Northeast (47) and lowest in the West (35). This regional disparity suggests that the impact of tariffs and overall market conditions may not be uniform across the country.In conclusion, the announced tariffs are sending a shockwave through the housing market. Builders are already facing rising costs, which could translate to significantly higher prices for new homes. This added cost pressure, coupled with economic uncertainty, could further slow down buyer demand and ...
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    14 m
  • Stock Market Crash: The Secret Trigger for Your Next Home Bargain?

    Stock Market Crash: The Secret Trigger for Your Next Home Bargain?
    Apr 14 2025
    Introduction:Welcome to the show! Today, we're diving into a seemingly counterintuitive idea: could a stock market crash actually present an opportunity for homebuyers?We'll explore the complex interplay between the stock market and the housing market, examining how economic volatility can create unexpected bargains for those looking to purchase a home.The Link Between Stocks and Homebuying:A recent Redfin survey revealed that a significant portion of prospective homebuyers expect to sell stocks to fund their down payment. Specifically, one in five (20%) prospective homebuyers anticipate using stock investments.Homeowners are also using stocks for housing costs, with roughly one in eight (13%) having sold stocks for a down payment, and one in ten (10%) having sold to afford mortgage payments.Renters are less reliant on stocks for housing, with only 6% having sold stock to afford rent.However, dropping stock values could lead some would-be homebuyers to back off as their funds shrink and their economic confidence is shaken.Redfin agent Heather Mahmood-Corley notes that in Phoenix, buyers in their 50s and older are particularly concerned, as much of their housing funds are in stock portfolios.How Stock Market Volatility Impacts Homebuyer Demand:Redfin's economic research lead, Chen Zhao, explains that falling stock values directly reduce homebuying demand by depleting prospective buyers' funds.Beyond direct financial impact, stock market volatility shakes consumer confidence and creates a general feeling of being poorer.This occurs at a time when consumers are already anticipating rising costs due to new tariff policies. President Trump’s new tariff policy has caused "wild up-and-down swings" in the stock market.Concerns about tariffs and a potential recession are making younger buyers nervous about purchasing a home now, fearing a decline in value and uncertainty in mortgage rates.The "Secret Trigger": Potential Silver Linings for Homebuyers:Despite the negative impacts, Zhao highlights potential "silver linings" for the housing market amid stock market volatility.Real Estate as a Safe Haven: A volatile stock market can encourage people to invest in real estate instead of stocks, viewing homes as a more stable investment.Downward Pressure on Mortgage Rates: Declining stock values can sometimes push mortgage rates down. Mortgage rates fell to a six-month low on April 4, offering a brief window of relief.Jessica Lautz, deputy chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), also noted the "roller coaster ride" of mortgage rates, influenced by the bond market's reaction to real-time economic decisions.Lower rates earlier in the week led to a spike in mortgage applications, indicating that some buyers are ready to act when rates drop. Mortgage-purchase applications rose 9% during the week ending April 4.Expert Perspectives on Market Turmoil:Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist, emphasized the significant "uncertainty and so much disruption" in the market, leading to rapid changes.Mike Simonsen, founder of Altos Research, suggests that stock market turmoil might not immediately translate into significant changes in homebuyer demand. He believes that rapidly lower mortgage rates could even bring some buyers off the fence.Simonsen points out that American homeowners are in a strong financial position with ultra-cheap, locked-in 30-year fixed mortgages and low loan-to-value ratios. This might make them more resilient to economic downturns.The Role of Tariffs and Other Economic Factors:The commencement of President Trump's tariffs has been linked to a tick down in U.S. mortgage rates. However, the long-term impact remains uncertain.The potential for increased costs in new home construction due to tariffs on Canadian lumber is another factor to consider.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed slightly easing inflation in March, but this data predates some of the recent tariff announcements.Current Housing Market Trends:While homebuying demand improved slightly at the start of April, overall, the housing market is under pressure.New listings are rising, with sellers potentially hoping to capitalize on their equity before a potential economic downturn.Pending sales saw their smallest decline since the start of 2025 in early April, but the long-term trend remains uncertain amid economic jitters.The median sale price showed the smallest increase since October 2023, and price reductions are high, indicating limited upward pressure on prices. In fact, some states are seeing lower home prices than the previous year.Mortgage rates remain volatile, making it crucial for ready buyers to stay in close contact with their agents to lock in favorable rates.Who Might Benefit from This Scenario:Buyers with cash or stable income who haven't been heavily invested in the stock market might find less competition and potentially lower prices.First-time homebuyers who have been priced out of the market could see an ...
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    13 m
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