In this high-stakes update, Nicholas Frappell examines the "U-turn" in the gold market following a period of extreme volatility. After gold hit a significant low of US$4,100 on March 23rd, it staged a US$300 rally, creating a powerful "Hammer" candlestick that has redefined the short-term technical floor.

The discussion focuses heavily on the fragile two-week ceasefire in the Gulf and its immediate impact on the energy-gold nexus.

Key Discussion Points

• The Hammer Reversal: Analysing the March 23rd price action where gold recovered from US$4,100 to close at US$4,407, providing a definitive technical signal.
• The Ceasefire Catalyst: How the cessation of hostilities led to a US$15/bbl drop in Dated Brent and a US$90 surge in gold over the week.
• Asymmetric Shocks: Why the US Dollar outperformed Eurozone and Asian currencies during the Hormuz blockade due to America's status as a net petroleum exporter.
• The Fragile Peace: Differing interpretations of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, specifically regarding the complete opening of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Economic Scars: Why the shocks to refinery runs in Singapore and Southeast Asia are already "baked into the cake," regardless of the ceasefire’s duration.

Timestamps

• (00:00) – Introduction: Recording on 10 April 2026.
• 00:44) – Technical U-Turn: The US$4,100 low and the "Hammer" candle.
• (02:15) – Currency Dynamics: The dollar as a safe haven and the balance of trade shock.
• (04:25) – The Ceasefire Stress Test: US, Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
• (06:06) – Rate Expectations: Why Fed pricing remains largely unchanged despite the conflict.
• (07:32) – Positioning Update: Steady managed money longs and global ETF holdings (98.55m oz).
• (08:21) – Price Targets: Short-term upside to US$4,830; medium-term resistance at US$5,075.
• (11:25) – Global Investors Summit: Nick previews his upcoming trip to Hong Kong.

Current Trend: Gold remains technically bearish in the daily timeframe despite the rally; a close above US$5,100 is required to challenge the Daily Ichimoku Cloud top.

Resistance Levels: US$4,935 (Cloud Base) and US$5,075 (Cloud Top).

Support Levels: US$4,100 (Hammer Low) and US$4,450 (Short-term downside target).

More Resources

• Technical Reports: Access Nick Frappell’s institutional analysis at abcrefinery.com/podcast.
• Follow Shae Russell: @shaearussell
• Follow Nick Frappell: @nick_frappell

In this mid-March edition of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Nicholas Frappell distills the escalating US-Iran conflict. This discussion moves beyond the initial market shock to explore why gold is currently behaving more like a risk asset than a safe haven.

Nick provides a high-level tactical analysis of the Middle Eastern theatre, from the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz to the potential for American "boots on the ground" at Kharg Island. The episode breaks down the energy supply shock—impacting everything from global chip production to fertilizer supplies—and why the markets may be dangerously "fading" these geopolitical risks.

Technical analysts will also find deep value in Nick’s breakdown of gold’s breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud and a Point & Figure target for Brent Crude that suggests the energy crisis is far from over.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th March 2026, this episode explores:

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: Precious metals prices as of 19 March 2026.
• (01:09) – Geopolitical Realities: Analysing the widening downstream impacts of the Iran conflict.
• (03:22) – The Safe Haven Paradox: Why the US dollar is winning while gold retreats.
• (05:53) – Energy Mitigants: Pipelines, emergency reserves, and the "Tank Top" countdown.
• (08:00) – Military Dimensions: The USS Tripoli and the risk of American boots on Iranian soil.
• (09:32) – Positioning: Managed Money’s surprising caution in the face of high volatility.
• (10:46) – Brent Oil Forecasts: Technical targets as the energy shock intensifies.
• (11:51) – Technical Analysis: Gold’s first breach of the Daily Ichimoku Cloud since mid-2025.
• (14:40) – The End of the Carry Trade? Second-order effects of yen weakness and energy imports.
• (16:24) – Key Takeaways: Headline risk, the Macbeth quote, and the legacy of war.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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In this special location episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets from ABC Refinery, records on the final day of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle. Following his keynote address, Nick unpacks the "uncertainty bingo card," explaining why traditional indicators like gold and the US dollar are defying historical correlations.

This episode dives deep into the technical and macroeconomic cross-currents defining 2026, including the shift from "de-dollarisation" to "de-fiatisation", the unprecedented retail silver frenzy in China, and why Kevin Warsh’s arrival at the Fed might actually mean more expensive money. Nick also provides exclusive technical updates using Ichimoku Cloud analysis and provides the probabilities for gold and silver’s next major moves.

📆 Recorded on Thursday 19th February 2026 at the RIU Explorers conference, this episode explores:

• Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements

• The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction: From the floor of the RIU Explorers Conference in Fremantle.

• (01:17) – The Uncertainty Proxy: Why measles outbreaks and the Fed narrative track with gold.

• (03:00) – The Warsh Factor: Quantitative tightening and the "belly of the curve."

• (05:51) – Breaking Correlations: Analysing gold’s rally alongside high real rates and a strong dollar.

• (08:16) – De-fiatisation vs. De-dollarisation: Why China is still accumulating greenbacks.

• (12:38) – Silver’s Forgotten Story: Comex inventory shifts and Chinese retail premiums.

• (16:55) – Managed Money Data: Identifying "Fast Money" trends in gold and silver.

• (21:17) – Technical Analysis: Ichimoku Cloud support levels and Point & Figure upside targets.

• (24:00) – Option Market Probabilities: Is a $140 silver price actually on the cards?

• (28:09) – The "Big Macro" Indicator: Monitoring the US Net International Investment Position.

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, discusses gold recently shattering the USD$5,000 barrier before experiencing an "eye-watering" $400 correction in mere minutes, the team explores the technical and macroeconomic forces behind the chaos.

The discussion provides deep technical insight into negative gamma on dealer option books, the impact of President Trump’s new Fed chair nominee, Kevin Warsh, and why silver recently behaved like an "enraged rattlesnake".

📆 Recorded on Monday 2nd February 2026, this episode explores:

• Market dynamics, price targets, and the role of managed money in these movements

• The implications of Fed policy and inflation on precious metals.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction and Market Overview

• (00:34) – Gold Market Dynamics

• (03:44) – Managed Money Positioning

• (06:31) – Price Targets and Predictions

• (09:03) – Silver Market Insights

• (11:31) – Final Thoughts and Future Outlook

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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In this final episode of The Pod of Gold for 2025, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks one of the most extraordinary years in precious metals history.

Gold has delivered its second-best annual performance since free trading began in 1979, with silver close behind. This podcast explores what drove this year’s rally and whether the bull market still has room to run into 2026. Frappell outlines his medium- and long-term price targets for both metals, breaks down positioning data across futures, ETFs and managed money, and explains why neither market appears overstretched despite the sharp gains.

The discussion then turns to the global macro backdrop shaping precious metals markets: the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward lower rates, ongoing divergence in central bank policy, rising bond yields, and the implications for the US dollar. Nicholas also examines developments in Japan, China’s prolonged property downturn, and the growing geopolitical risks tied to the Russia–Ukraine war and energy markets.

With politics, geopolitics and monetary policy increasingly intertwined, this episode provides a comprehensive wrap-up of 2025 and a clear framework for understanding the forces likely to influence gold and silver in the year ahead.

Listen now to close out the year and prepare for what lies ahead in 2026.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Gold and silver’s historic performance in 2025

• Price targets and technical outlook for 2026

• Futures, ETF and managed money positioning

• Fed rate cuts, US dollar weakness and bond market risks

• Japan, China and global demand dynamics

• Geopolitical tensions and their impact on precious metals

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:37) – Gold’s Best Year Since 1979

• (01:46) – Gold Price Targets for 2026

• (02:39) – Can Gold Hit $5,000? Technical Analysis

• (03:08) – Gold Futures Positioning: Is the Market Overcrowded?

• (04:10) – Gold ETFs, Open Interest and Investor Flows

• (04:58) – Silver’s Breakout Year: The Forgotten Outperformer

• (07:40) – Silver Price Targets: How High Can It Go?

• (08:14) – Why Central Banks Still Matter for Gold

• (10:03) – Bank of Japan Rate Hikes and the Yen

• (11:44) – China’s Property Crisis and Economic Slowdown

• (15:06) – Geopolitics, Global Tensions and Gold

• (18:21) – Gold and Silver Outlook for 2026

• (18:51) – Final Thoughts and Year-End Wrap

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this week’s episode of The Pod of Gold, ABC Refinery’s Global Head of Institutional Markets, Nicholas Frappell, dives deep into October’s extraordinary volatility across the precious metals space.

Recorded on Tuesday, 18 November 2025, Frappell unpacks the extreme tightness in the silver market, the drivers behind gold’s sharp drop and powerful rebound, and why China’s deteriorating economic indicators matter enormously for Australia. From negative gamma flows to fixed asset investment, this episode is loaded with actionable insights for traders, investors, and precious-metals followers.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why silver lease rates briefly exploded to ~200%

• How metal flows to COMEX, New York ETFs, and India helped drain London's lending pool

• The return of metal to London vaults—53 million oz, the biggest inflow since 2016

• Whether December Fed rate cuts are still likely

• Gold’s medium- and short-term upside and downside price targets

• ETF flows and what limited data we have on positioning

• China’s rare –12.2% drop in fixed-asset investment, persistent deflation risks, and slow-motion property crisis

• Why China’s troubles matter directly for Australia’s economy

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:32) – Recap of a busy conference schedule

• (01:14) – Gold goes parabolic… then drops ~US$420: what happened?

• (02:24) – Listener question: What caused October’s extreme tightness in silver?

• (04:56) – Turning back to gold: analysing the late-October rally

• (05:53) – Key support levels: Ichimoku, Fibonacci & volatility drivers

• (06:24) – Gold & silver targets: medium- and short-term outlook

• (07:54) – Positioning: what we can infer without COT data

• (09:15) – ETF flows in gold & silver

• (09:48) – China update: investment collapse, deflation & property sector slump

• (12:34) – Why China’s malaise matters for Australia

• (13:08) – Final thoughts: volatility, US dollar direction & Fed uncertainty

• (14:00) – When Frappell will (hopefully!) return to the mic

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.

Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investors
• The macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policy
• The impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidays
• Point & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172
• Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576
• How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction
• (00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000
• (01:22) – The macro backdrop
• (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown
• (05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens
• (06:42) – Point & Figure analysis
• (07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture
• (08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

In this episode, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery explains why Gold has surged to a historic US $3,759, and the momentum shows no sign of slowing.

📆 Recorded on Tuesday 23rd September 2025, this episode explores:

• Why weakness in the US dollar and shifting Federal Reserve policy are fuelling the rally

• Key price targets—including short-term resistance around US $3,800 and medium-term potential near US $4,000

• The surge in ETF inflows and investor rotation out of equities

• Geopolitical flashpoints and economic signals from China that could keep gold in demand

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Dollar Index (DXY) weakness and what past declines suggest for a possible rebound.

• September’s 25-bp cut and why the market’s hopes for deeper, faster easing may be misplaced.

• Inflation break-even rates and why the Fed’s own projections challenge the “rapid cuts” narrative.

• Rotation out of US equities and into gold as a hedge.

• Technical targets: short-term and medium-term

• Key support zones

• Escalating tensions—Russian jets, uncertain US leadership—and their impact on safe-haven demand.

• China’s slowing fixed-asset investment and soft consumption shaping global trade flows.

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction

• (00:55) – Moves behind the gold rally

• (04:55) – Managed money positioning

• (08:38) – Gold price targets

• (11:20) – Is the US dollar losing its grip?

• (13:07) – Geopolitics & macro drivers

• (14:08) – Key takeaways

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast

• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell

• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell

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