Gold Breaks $4,000: What’s Driving the Rally and What Comes Next

In this episode of The Pod of Gold, Nicholas Frappell, Global Head of Institutional Markets at ABC Refinery, unpacks gold’s explosive surge through US $4,000/oz — a milestone that’s reshaping market sentiment and investor positioning around the world.

Recorded on Wednesday, 8 October 2025, this special short-form episode explores the macro and technical forces behind gold’s breakout and what traders should watch for next.

📈 Frappell also examines:

• Why the US$4,000 mark is a psychological and technical milestone for gold investors
• The macro drivers behind the rally — from fiscal dominance and rising debt pressures to shifting Fed policy
• The impact of the US government shutdown on positioning data and market sentimentWhat to expect when Chinese markets reopen after the holidays
• Point & Figure targets pointing toward near-term resistance at US$4,073–4,172
• Ichimoku Cloud analysis and distant support levels near US$3,671 and US$3,576
• How round-number psychology and short-term volatility could shape the next phase of gold’s run

🕒 Timestamps:

• (00:00) – Introduction
• (00:33) – Gold marches through US$4,000
• (01:22) – The macro backdrop
• (03:38) – Positioning & ETF inflows amid the US government shutdown
• (05:38) – Technical outlook: Short-term risks and what to watch as China reopens
• (06:42) – Point & Figure analysis
• (07:32) – Ichimoku Cloud weekly big picture
• (08:27) – Summary and what’s ahead at IMARC 2025

🔗 More Resources:

• Visit: https://www.abcrefinery.com/podcast
• Follow Nick Frappell: https://twitter.com/nick_frappell
• Follow Shae Russell: https://twitter.com/shaearussell