In Part 1 of our conversation with Tianchen Xu, Senior Economist at The Economist Intelligence Unit, we dig into China’s macro performance in the first half of 2025—and what the future may hold. Tianchen analyzes Q1’s headline 5.4% growth, discusses why the London trade truce between the US and China matters, and highlights what Western media narratives often miss when reporting on China’s economy.

We also explore how resilient China’s economy really is in the face of renewed US tariffs, whether the truce will hold, and how all of this impacts international brands and investor sentiment. For anyone navigating China’s economic landscape in 2025, this episode offers a level-headed, data-driven perspective.

Discussion Points:

• Why Q1 2025’s 5.4% GDP growth may be more complicated than it looks
• The London US-China tariff agreement: what it covers and what could unravel
• How China’s supply chain reconfiguration may insulate it from future tariff shocks
• What Western media gets wrong about China’s macro fundamentals
• The role of state-led investment and policy buffers in maintaining growth momentum

In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley welcomes back WPIC CEO Jacob Cooke to share insights around two pivotal developments for global consumer brands: the framework trade agreement between the US and China, and China’s massive 618 shopping festival.

Jacob breaks down the implications of the new framework agreement between the US and China, explains how tariff policies are shifting brand strategies, and highlights key recommendations for both U.S. and non-U.S. companies looking to grow in the APAC region. He also shares what’s different about this year’s 618 shopping event, how platforms like Taobao and Xiaohongshu are integrating content and commerce, and which product categories are set to win big.

If you’re a global brand navigating China’s trade and consumer landscape, this is one episode you don’t want to miss.

Discussion Points:

• The latest updates from Jacob on the ground ahead of 618
• Key findings from WPIC’s June 2025 strategic tariff report
• What the US-China “London Deal” means for cross-border business
• Why 618 remains a crucial growth moment for international brands
• How platform integrations (e.g., the Red Cat Plan) are changing the game
• Growth sectors to watch: beauty, wellness, fashion, and baby care
• Jacob’s top 3 tips for brands to win during 618

In this episode of The Negotiation, host Todd Embley sits down with Kevin Xu, founder of the bilingual newsletter Interconnected, which offers sharp analysis on the intersection of technology, investing, and geopolitics between the United States and China. Kevin has become one of the most thoughtful and trusted voices interpreting Chinese tech trends.

Together, they explore the evolving AI landscape in China, examining how players like DeepSeek and Alibaba are shaping the race, how export controls are impacting development, and why Kevin believes 2025 could be the year of the “AI RIF.” They also unpack China’s open-source culture, cloud strategy, and what Western analysts continue to get wrong about China’s innovation ecosystem.

If you want to understand better the complex forces shaping tech and policy between the world’s two largest economies, this is a must-listen.

Listeners should also check out Kevin’s newsletter Interconnected at interconnected.blog.

🔍 Discussion Points

• What Western analysts often get wrong about China’s tech ecosystem
• China’s strengths and weaknesses in AI vs. the U.S.
• Why Kevin believes 2025 may mark the start of “AI-driven layoffs” (AI RIF)
• DeepSeek’s rise and its open-source implications
• Why “open vs. closed” is a more useful lens than “US vs. China” in the AI race
• Alibaba’s AI and Cloud strategy post-reorganization
• Are U.S. tech export controls helping or hurting long-term AI innovation?
• Potential “second-order” consequences of chip restrictions
• Underrated trends in Chinese tech to watch in 2025
• What investors and operators should be paying attention to next